One cast of Holy will do as much damage as you do over an entire pull from Sword Oath. The loss of just one GCD alone to additional healing from Sword Oath makes it disadvantageous. I will try to show this mathematically.
Let's assume you need 4 uses of Flash in Shield Oath to maintain aggro through the pull. Because the full 50% from Shield Oath is given (Flash is not damage-based), this is 6 Flashes in Sword Oath, a loss of 5 DPS-seconds. We will assume 6 targets for the purpose of this analysis.
Shield Oath potency per second: (150 + 200 + 260)/7.5 + 100/3 + 6*250/25 + 300/30 = 184.67 base * 0.8 = 147.73 potency per second
Sword Oath potency per second: (150 + 200 + 260)/7.5 + 100/3 + 6*250/25 + 300/30 + 50/2.32 = 206.22 potency per second
DPS gain per second: 0.400 DPS-seconds per second
Time to equivalence: 17.5 seconds
Assume 40-second encounter duration (probably overestimate). Total DPS gain: 9 DPS-seconds -- 1329.57 potency.
WHM holy: 240 potency * 6 opponents * 1.3 maim & mend * 1.1 cleric stance * ~1.4 stat and weapon damage differences = 2882.88 potency.
If WHM loses just one GCD to healing, you're well behind in total DPS.
This isn't the most exacting analysis, but it should give you a good idea of why Shield Oath is a better option for mob situations. Start in it and stay in it. When it comes to bosses... well, that jelly does probably 200 DPS and you need no Flash, so over the duration, healer loses one GCD per 25 seconds. PLD gains 10 DPS-seconds in that much time, or around 1350 potency. Holy would be less than 500 against one target. Either way, Sword Oath wins out in situations with few targets and low damage rates.
//EDIT:
Sword Oath adds 50 potency per autoattack. In total, it is 40-45% more DPS over Shield Oath depending on the number of opponents (inversely proportional due to CoS contribution).