Any crafters/gatherers do this?

[Felis]

Don't worry, the "I know talking points about probability" brigade will be here shortly to let you know that there's zero chance that the game's algorithms are flawed somehow and it really is just RNG at play. Even when tons of people are experiencing it. Repeatedly. Just RNG - look away!

You called? ^^

It would be so much easier if everyone collect some datas about succes versus fail rate (and not about fail rate only)

I did 3 leves to have always the same % chance to test it
Here my result:

8 nodes *6 strikes = 48 strikes each leve
official chance = 89%

46/48 (95,8%)
42/48 (87,5%)
43/48 (89,5%)

Total:
131/144 (90%)

[Alberel]

You called? ^^

It would be so much easier if everyone collect some datas about succes versus fail rate (and not about fail rate only)

I did 3 leves to have always the same % chance to test it
Here my result:

8 nodes *6 strikes = 48 strikes each leve
official chance = 89%

46/48 (95,8%)
42/48 (87,5%)
43/48 (89,5%)

Total:
131/144 (90%)

The problem most people are encountering isn't the overall odds, it's the strings of good and bad 'luck' that lead to those odds. Getting a string of 5+ failures when you had a 90% success chance is very unlikely but it could happen. Having it then happen multiple times in one game session AND seeing other players also have it happen is beyond improbable. My FC chat every night gets multiple players reporting huge strings of bad luck like this yet the odds of it happening should make it so rare we only see it happen to one person a week or so...

It's probably worth pointing out though that I see equally crazy luck with successes sometimes... more or less to balance it out. To give an analogy it seems to be more like tossing a coin 100 times; you'd expect roughly 50 heads and 50 tails (give or take a few, and assuming the coin was flipped exactly the same way every time). Now the RNG here would still give us roughly 50 of each, but it would output them as sequences of 5-10 of each in a row with a rare few scattered in between. Do you see the problem? Their algorithm seems to 'stick' to a certain end of the spectrum for several rolls in a row. The overall result is correct but the way it gets there is very very wrong.

[Felis]

My FC chat every night gets multiple players reporting huge strings of bad luck like this yet the odds of it happening should make it so rare we only see it happen to one person a week or so...

And how many in your FC report everytime if they have normal luck?
Like I say, you also need the amount of success strings to have a comparison

It's probably worth pointing out though that I see equally crazy luck with successes sometimes... more or less to balance it out. To give an analogy it seems to be more like tossing a coin 100 times; you'd expect roughly 50 heads and 50 tails (give or take a few, and assuming the coin was flipped exactly the same way every time). Now the RNG here would still give us roughly 50 of each, but it would output them as sequences of 5-10 of each in a row with a rare few scattered in between. Do you see the problem? Their algorithm seems to 'stick' to a certain end of the spectrum for several rolls in a row. The overall result is correct but the way it gets there is very very wrong.

Each time you tossing a coin you get a 50% chance for both side. You can throw it 5 times and still get only head. But the more you throw the coin the less the possibility that you only throw heads. At the end, after 100 or 500 throws, the success rate for both sides should be around 50%, even if at some times you threw head 5 times in a row.

[Welsper59]

And how many in your FC report everytime if they have normal luck?
Like I say, you also need the amount of success strings to have a comparison


Each time you tossing a coin you get a 50% chance for both side. You can throw it 5 times and still get only head. But the more you throw the coin the less the possibility that you only throw heads. At the end, after 100 or 500 throws, the success rate for both sides should be around 50%, even if at some times you threw head 5 times in a row.

Indeed. But the game seems to consider fails at a higher rate than presented. Either that, or we're all just completely removed of equal luck. I've yet to HQ items anywhere near as consistently as failing actions. Your likelihood of failing an action at 10-20% seems far more plausible than HQ'ing at 10-20% success. I've yet to read of someone who says otherwise. This might be exclusive to crafting though, as gathering has additional variables that the player can change through stats to success, fails, and HQ.

Right now seems to be one of those bad moments of my crafting experience with successful actions. Out of 166 Hasty Touch + Steady Hand II (80% success chance), only 86 were successful. Most of those failures were continuous too. 3-8 fails in a row. It's just odd that failures happen so often in large doses, then back to a steady stream of success (with 1-2 fails thrown in). It'd be a different story if it were closer to 50%, but 80% is quite difficult to swallow with it being purely RNG with those large dose fails being predictable. That might just be my own frustration talking though.

[Raminax]

I don't swear at the game anymore. Or well, I never did. I just got exasperated. :x

I just sigh. I've given up. I have no more energy to groan at the 98% Quality Bar failures.

Not that they happen anymore since I got Byregot's Blessing. Gamebreaker much. <_<

[Ashgarth]

Whenever a Free Company mate happily says he just made an HQ item with 1-2% HQ chance I always tell him "Remember that when you get a NQ with 98% chance".

It has happened too many times already.

[Edenholt]

I feel like this game work with the same % style from the original FF-Tactics, back on Playstation. There if you have, let's say, 85% chance to land a hit on a target, forget it.. go find another skill because anything with less than 100% would be a waste of turn.

[Jmeat]

Ugh. This was me today. Not only did I swear but I pounded the desk and scared my dog.

[Capita]

This happens all the time for me with Byregot's Blessing. 90% chance? Yeah right. I don't remember the last time I didn't fail a Byregot's without Steady Hand. Managed to fail both of my Militia accessories today, so I'll have to run a few AK/WP with non-HQ accessories until they're 100% bound.

[Kinseykinz]

And how many in your FC report everytime if they have normal luck?
Like I say, you also need the amount of success strings to have a comparison


Each time you tossing a coin you get a 50% chance for both side. You can throw it 5 times and still get only head. But the more you throw the coin the less the possibility that you only throw heads. At the end, after 100 or 500 throws, the success rate for both sides should be around 50%, even if at some times you threw head 5 times in a row.

^This.

I have had my share of fails with 90%+ too, BUT...I've also had my share of HQ's that happened for synths with a below 10% chance. Both were equally as likely to have happened or not have happened respectively, but the only one that sends us into 'OMG that's so unfair! Nerdrage, is the 90% success chance that fails.

So really, unless multiple crafters/gathers take it upon themselves to track and monitor every HQ% chance and the result (NQ/HQ), we can't confirm/deny the in game chance is truely reflective of your chances.

Lastly, it is human nature to remember the 'times that should have gone my way and didn't' and to forget the amount of 'lucky chances' you had.