Any crafters/gatherers do this?

[Welsper59]

When failing a 80-99% success chance ability (or HQ chance) 5-10+ times in a row, am I the only one who swears furiously at the screen?

[Anayrie]

Always love the 98% chance to gather an item and fail more than half of the gathering attempts. I guess I'm part that 2% of people for a short time frame.

[Welsper59]

Always love the 98% chance to gather an item and fail more than half of the gathering attempts. I guess I'm part that 2% of people for a short time frame.

I'd throw you a towel to wipe up those tears, but it's already soaked with my own.

[Syrellaris]

Always love the 98% chance to gather an item and fail more than half of the gathering attempts. I guess I'm part that 2% of people for a short time frame.

I can beat that.. 98% failed 6 times in gathering. .

[Dreamer]

Always love the 98% chance to gather an item and fail more than half of the gathering attempts. I guess I'm part that 2% of people for a short time frame.

Don't worry, the "I know talking points about probability" brigade will be here shortly to let you know that there's zero chance that the game's algorithms are flawed somehow and it really is just RNG at play. Even when tons of people are experiencing it. Repeatedly. Just RNG - look away!

[Felis]

Don't worry, the "I know talking points about probability" brigade will be here shortly to let you know that there's zero chance that the game's algorithms are flawed somehow and it really is just RNG at play. Even when tons of people are experiencing it. Repeatedly. Just RNG - look away!

You called? ^^

It would be so much easier if everyone collect some datas about succes versus fail rate (and not about fail rate only)

I did 3 leves to have always the same % chance to test it
Here my result:

8 nodes *6 strikes = 48 strikes each leve
official chance = 89%

46/48 (95,8%)
42/48 (87,5%)
43/48 (89,5%)

Total:
131/144 (90%)

[Alberel]

You called? ^^

It would be so much easier if everyone collect some datas about succes versus fail rate (and not about fail rate only)

I did 3 leves to have always the same % chance to test it
Here my result:

8 nodes *6 strikes = 48 strikes each leve
official chance = 89%

46/48 (95,8%)
42/48 (87,5%)
43/48 (89,5%)

Total:
131/144 (90%)

The problem most people are encountering isn't the overall odds, it's the strings of good and bad 'luck' that lead to those odds. Getting a string of 5+ failures when you had a 90% success chance is very unlikely but it could happen. Having it then happen multiple times in one game session AND seeing other players also have it happen is beyond improbable. My FC chat every night gets multiple players reporting huge strings of bad luck like this yet the odds of it happening should make it so rare we only see it happen to one person a week or so...

It's probably worth pointing out though that I see equally crazy luck with successes sometimes... more or less to balance it out. To give an analogy it seems to be more like tossing a coin 100 times; you'd expect roughly 50 heads and 50 tails (give or take a few, and assuming the coin was flipped exactly the same way every time). Now the RNG here would still give us roughly 50 of each, but it would output them as sequences of 5-10 of each in a row with a rare few scattered in between. Do you see the problem? Their algorithm seems to 'stick' to a certain end of the spectrum for several rolls in a row. The overall result is correct but the way it gets there is very very wrong.

[Felis]

My FC chat every night gets multiple players reporting huge strings of bad luck like this yet the odds of it happening should make it so rare we only see it happen to one person a week or so...

And how many in your FC report everytime if they have normal luck?
Like I say, you also need the amount of success strings to have a comparison

It's probably worth pointing out though that I see equally crazy luck with successes sometimes... more or less to balance it out. To give an analogy it seems to be more like tossing a coin 100 times; you'd expect roughly 50 heads and 50 tails (give or take a few, and assuming the coin was flipped exactly the same way every time). Now the RNG here would still give us roughly 50 of each, but it would output them as sequences of 5-10 of each in a row with a rare few scattered in between. Do you see the problem? Their algorithm seems to 'stick' to a certain end of the spectrum for several rolls in a row. The overall result is correct but the way it gets there is very very wrong.

Each time you tossing a coin you get a 50% chance for both side. You can throw it 5 times and still get only head. But the more you throw the coin the less the possibility that you only throw heads. At the end, after 100 or 500 throws, the success rate for both sides should be around 50%, even if at some times you threw head 5 times in a row.

[SpiritedMare]

Judging by the vehement string of expletives that often emanates from my boyfriend's office when I know for a fact that he's working on his crafting... I would hazard a "no" guess.

[Welsper59]

Judging by the vehement string of expletives that often emanates from my boyfriend's office when I know for a fact that he's working on his crafting... I would hazard a "no" guess.

That's kinda like me. "Are you F***ING KIDDING ME!?", followed by provoking it to "do it again", with occasional death threats to the games mom sprinkled in for good measure.