Gathering success rates broken?

[Itchyness]

This all happens because you all haven't sacrificed a lalafell to the RNG god of gathering. I still need to look for a lala myself. /hidesbehindbush

[SulwynCaliope]

This all happens because you all haven't sacrificed a lalafell to the RNG god of gathering. I still need to look for a lala myself. /hidesbehindbush

What if I am a lala? Do I need to sacrifice myself?

On a more serious note though, I have felt like the numbers have gotten a bit screwy. I think I had like 10 misses in a row with a 80+% success rate once. I rarely get 4 hits in a row from a single node now. Even if I buff myself, my numbers get boosted a bit but I'm still missing a whole lot. I swear I was getting better results before the patch happened.

[Rhindas]

I should've took a picture. I've missed all four times at 98% once, then did it again two times on the next tree. Grrrr.

[AttacKat]

80% and 4 misses on 4 attempts
91%, 15% HQ, 3 HQ and 1 miss.

Yeah, it is broken

jc

[TofuPenguin]

Yup. It's a bit weird. I find that I have a lower success rate if I actually use a gathering percentage increase buff than if I don't. It's hard to really say since I'm not keeping track of it. For all I know it could be in my head. But that's what it FEELS like. Even with 80% success rate, I miss at least once per node most of the time. It's not unusual to miss 2 per node either. Buff up to 95% and I end up missing 3 in a row. This happens a lot. Strangely enough though, it doesn't bother me too much.

[unami1]

Not broken. Its probability. As explained in an long earlier thread the percentages are for EACH try not grouped so 90% does not translate to 1 miss in 10. It translates to 10% fail EACH try. So based on probability, 10 misses in 10 tries, even with a 99% success rate showing, is in line. Its not what want to hear but because of the way it works its possible. Knowing this I just ignore it and keep pounding

[Naberrie]

Yesterday I went 0/4 on a 82%. And I've good gear at 32. So I definitely think something's not quite right.

[TomTom1968]

I have learned that as long as I do not have a 100% chance, one of my harvesting attempts is reliably going to fail lol. When there is an extra item or harvest attempt bonus, I can be sure to fail two times in case my chance is below 100%.

But on the other hand, I sometimes get 100% HQ although the chance is 15% so this kinda makes up for it.

[unami1]

^^^^^^^
And this in fact reinforces the probability mathematics. In crafting you see this constantly. One time you will have 98% and fail and next 23% and create a HQ item. Nothing is broken its just the way probability works. Like someone said "sacrifice a Lalafell". It may not actually change anything but it gives you that sense that you can maybe change the outcome when it works. Being native american I have been asked if the rain dance works which I answer well of course it does. They danced till it rained. Sometimes hours, sometimes weeks but it always rained because they didn't stop till it did and it gave the feeling of some control So quick sweating it, and dance till it rains

[razz]

Some maths: 85% chance to get item, 15% chance to miss:
now you say you miss 5 times in a row? oh thats a % of: 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 = 0.15^5 = 0.0000759375 = 0.00759375%
-> 10000:76 (so out of 10,000 ppl who gather 5 times in a row, 76 ppl get all 5 misses)

or another example: 85% for NQ / 15% for HQ
feeling unlucky? ok gathering 10 times and only getting NQ? 0.85^10 = 0.19687440434072265625 = 19.69 % yep that's a lot

is it fair? kinda, cause everybody has the same chances. but i know how frustrating it can be

ok 1 more example: 90% to get item, 10% to miss. so out of 10 attempts to get 9 items and 1 miss (so you fulfill the average). You think it's a very high chance? It's the highest of all other possibilities: 0.9^9 + 0.1^1 = 0.49 = 49%