Gathering success rates broken?

[razz]

Some maths: 85% chance to get item, 15% chance to miss:
now you say you miss 5 times in a row? oh thats a % of: 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 * 0.15 = 0.15^5 = 0.0000759375 = 0.00759375%
-> 10000:76 (so out of 10,000 ppl who gather 5 times in a row, 76 ppl get all 5 misses)

or another example: 85% for NQ / 15% for HQ
feeling unlucky? ok gathering 10 times and only getting NQ? 0.85^10 = 0.19687440434072265625 = 19.69 % yep that's a lot

is it fair? kinda, cause everybody has the same chances. but i know how frustrating it can be

ok 1 more example: 90% to get item, 10% to miss. so out of 10 attempts to get 9 items and 1 miss (so you fulfill the average). You think it's a very high chance? It's the highest of all other possibilities: 0.9^9 + 0.1^1 = 0.49 = 49%

[Grey_Cain]

My best run so far has been 33 HQ mythril ores to 19 NQ ores, with 13 failures on 65 attempts (15 nodes) at 81%/15% base chance, and one 5-hit node for all 5 HQ Black Alumen at 15%. My worst run was 0 HQ fire rocks to 26 NQ rocks with no failures on 26 attempts (6 nodes) at 100%/25% HQ (had bonus HQ up for every node), and one 4-hit node at 94% getting 0 hits.

After farming Flax exhaustively, however, I have to say that SE's RNG is scarily accurate. In the short term there are all sorts of wonky results, but over time the good runs and the bad runs even out to an almost perfectly even percentage. Even scarier, one flax run I made to gather over 600 flax and the 16% average HQ rate (including the 10% HQ buff whenever available) stayed with me for every 100 flax without variation.