90% sucess rate and still missing

[Astarica]

There is no RNG dedicated to your rolls. There isn't even a dedicated crafting RNG or gathering RNG or whatever. Let's say an alleged RNG simply generates the sequence '89X9 91' forever. Therefore the first 9 rolls are guaranteed to succeed with 90% chance to succeed and the last roll is guaranteed to fail with 90% odds. There's nothing random about this sequence, though it satisfies succeeding 9 out of 10 times with 90% odds.

Now say you're trying to take advantage of this. You can't, because a guy shooting an arrow at a mob will randomly use up one of these numbers, so is the other guy getting hit by a sheep elsewhere, and in fact virtually every action in the game uses up a RNG, so despite you know the exact sequence of numbers generated, it is never possible for any one player to observe any pattern even if there is supposed to be one.

[Bufkus]

I missed HQ on a 98% chance earlier today. Just glad it wasn't anything I cared about.
That is some messed up RNG.

[Douten]

The numbers are definitely misleading as how we're used to expect % to work. If the weather man says there's 90% chance that it will rain and it didn't for 12 days straight, with the same report, then it'd be safe to say there's something wrong with his system. Though this isn't how RNG works it's what people are used to when seeing %.

[Chadzuk]

Whether it's the randomization ability of the game or something to do with how the skills actually calculate chance, something is definitely not right. I have been crafting a ton and the improbability of me failing the amount I have at 80% - 90% is astronomical. The moment I lose steady hands, my ability that grants me an 80% chance to increase quality fails constantly. No, not 1 out of every 5, like 3 or 4 out of every 5 on a CONSTANT basis. This starts happening more at higher levels of crafting. There is either something wrong with the randomizer or it is done on purpose and they just aren't giving you all the details on how it is calculated.

[Xbob42]

As I said, there's many factors that govern the actual % success rate, if you use hasty touch (no steady hand 1 or 2) on a low level item and a high level item, you'll see it succeed far more on the low level item despite it being a blanket "50%" success chance. They need to update the tooltip to show the true % with each step.

[Tarrick]

Um, failing 12 in a row has exactly one ordering (12 in a row). The chance of this event happening is a trillion in 1. To observe such an event means either you're extremely (un)lucky or there's something wrong with the system, with the latter being the far more plausible explanation given the extreme odds involved. It's likely this event never occured in the history of FF14 thus far, and while that's not proof it cannot happen, one should be extremely suspicious if it did.

And yet, even in your other posts you discuss that the sequence of the randomly generated values are not limited to a single character or event. So is this really 12 fails in a row? If the RNG is a shared resource then no it isn't, and it even approaches truly random when you have other unpredictable entities accessing that resource. Unless someone comes in with a statistically significant sample, then there's no reason to even consider it.

[Xbob42]

If the RNG is "shared" then it's literally the worst RNG system ever designed by mankind, and I applaud Square Enix for their awful, unintuitive design that only true morons could have come up with.

[emblasochist]

And yet, even in your other posts you discuss that the sequence of the randomly generated values are not limited to a single character or event. So is this really 12 fails in a row? If the RNG is a shared resource then no it isn't, and it even approaches truly random when you have other unpredictable entities accessing that resource. Unless someone comes in with a statistically significant sample, then there's no reason to even consider it.

To this end, I will record two sample sizes of 100 gathers each, one with a stated success rate of 83% success and one with a stated 81% success rate. I'll record only the nodes with + gathering yield, no bonus or + gathering attempts, but, before I do so, I believe that the stated percentages are pretty reasonable estimates...

[Kaizlu]

As I said, there's many factors that govern the actual % success rate, if you use hasty touch (no steady hand 1 or 2) on a low level item and a high level item, you'll see it succeed far more on the low level item despite it being a blanket "50%" success chance. They need to update the tooltip to show the true % with each step.

I've noticed this.

I've been trying to get my DoHs to 50 and while leveling the crafts are becoming easier as in "RNG gods being good with me". In theory leveling up you should only see an increase of how much progress (Crafting) and quality (Control) you get per action and not an increase of success chance while doing items - but I've experienced less failed Hasty Hands as I level up my classes.

It's just weird.

[O-Deka-K]

To this end, I will record two sample sizes of 100 gathers each, one with a stated success rate of 83% success and one with a stated 81% success rate. I'll record only the nodes with + gathering yield, no bonus or + gathering attempts, but, before I do so, I believe that the stated percentages are pretty reasonable estimates...

I work with random numbers all the time. I have to read reports on random numbers and determine if they follow given percentages "correctly" or not. That being said, 100 samples is not even close to being a significant sample size. At an 83% success rate, I would not be surprised at all if you get 65 successes or 95 successes. If you want to compare 81% to 83% for accuracy, then I'd say that you would need over ten thousand samples (each), and that's still on the low side. I'm completely serious. And no, I don't expect anyone to do this.

The deviation is greater than you think, and yes, it annoys me too.