90% sucess rate and still missing

[unami1]

The numbers are definitely misleading as how we're used to expect % to work. If the weather man says there's 90% chance that it will rain and it didn't for 12 days straight, with the same report, then it'd be safe to say there's something wrong with his system. Though this isn't how RNG works it's what people are used to when seeing %.

This has nothing to do with the thread but I talked at length one day with one of our local network weatherman and he stated that in fact when they say there is , for example, a 30% chance for rain they mean that 30% of the viewing area has a 100% chance of measurable precipitation. So in essence 12 days without any rain on your particular area with a 90% chance could still be considered right.

[Xbob42]

I work with random numbers all the time. I have to read reports on random numbers and determine if they follow given percentages "correctly" or not. That being said, 100 samples is not even close to being a significant sample size. At an 83% success rate, I would not be surprised at all if you get 65 successes or 95 successes. If you want to compare 81% to 83% for accuracy, then I'd say that you would need over ten thousand samples (each), and that's still on the low side. I'm completely serious. And no, I don't expect anyone to do this.

The deviation is greater than you think, and yes, it annoys me too.

You don't expect people to do this? You're new to MMOs, aren't you? Someone will do this for FUN.

[Ilmoran]

I've noticed this.

I've been trying to get my DoHs to 50 and while leveling the crafts are becoming easier as in "RNG gods being good with me". In theory leveling up you should only see an increase of how much progress (Crafting) and quality (Control) you get per action and not an increase of success chance while doing items - but I've experienced less failed Hasty Hands as I level up my classes.

It's just weird.

What I've experienced from leveling all crafts to 50 is that the more crafts I have at 50, the less I care whether my 80% hasty touch failed or not, because I have enough ways to recover anyway.

[Astarica]

And yet, even in your other posts you discuss that the sequence of the randomly generated values are not limited to a single character or event. So is this really 12 fails in a row? If the RNG is a shared resource then no it isn't, and it even approaches truly random when you have other unpredictable entities accessing that resource. Unless someone comes in with a statistically significant sample, then there's no reason to even consider it.

The existence of other unlikely event doesn't affect any particular event you're trying to observe. Yes the RNG of FF14 most likely handed out an event with odds of 1 trillion to 1 at some point, but the event we're trying to observe (say, crafting) most certainly didn't happen a trillion times, so we should be skeptical if such an event happened. The observance of a 1 trillion to 1 event itself is statistically significant, which is why claims to observe such an event are almost always false.

[Astarica]

There's two concepts people confuse. Variance of any event can be rather large and require more sample size, but observerance of extremely unlikely event itself is significant. 1000 in 1 is something you may run into a month. 1 million to 1 is something that has to happen to someone. But 1 billion to 1 or worse odds? If they happened, it's almost certain proof the game's underlying integrity is in question. Now, usually you find out these alleged events are exaggerated, but if you have proof such an event actually happened, the observerance of such an event alone is almost enough proof by itself. If you've a log of 12 consecutive fails at 90% success rate, send it to Square. They'll be very interested in how this is possible.

[Tantrumus]

I used to get frustrated missing 90% so frequently, even in crafting.

I don't really think it's 90% per swing. I think MMO mechanics are far more advanced than they tell you. Yes 90% "typically".... how many times have you had 3 HQ hits at 15% in a row for example.... the pendulum seems to swing in both directions good and bad. I've had X 90% chances fail and get frustrated and then just as I'm about to do something else, the HQ hits will repeat at very LOW odds. Just something to think about.

What if the engine keeps a 90% "Average" and a 15% "Average" HQ over your session etc....

Total speculation but for how much 90% seems to fail in a row or 4 of 5 swings, 5 in a row, 2 out of 4 ..... etc... good odds that they don't just calc 90% per swing or try in crafting.