90% sucess rate and still missing

[Tarrick]

The whole 'sample size' is really a pet peeve of mine. If you really got 12 misses in a row with 90%, that's not a small sample. The chance of that happening is 1 trillion in 1. It is a virtual statistical impossibility. If you have proof this actually happened I can almost certainly agree with you that the RNG is indeed messed up. Though I'm sure failing 12 times in a row at 90% didn't actually happen and is only an exaggeration.

When you come to terms with the fact that the order in which random events happen doesn't matter, you will see that it's a small sample. If there were 1 million successful consecutive events prior to that, no one would be here complaining about them. They would, however, be a necessary component of the analysis of the RNG.

Though I'm sure failing 12 times in a row at 90% didn't actually happen and is only an exaggeration.

This is definitely the more likely scenario.

[Astarica]

When you come to terms with the fact that the order in which random events happen doesn't matter, you will see that it's a small sample. If there were 1 million successful consecutive events prior to that, no one would be here complaining about them. They would, however, be a necessary component of the analysis of the RNG.

Um, failing 12 in a row has exactly one ordering (12 in a row). The chance of this event happening is a trillion in 1. To observe such an event means either you're extremely (un)lucky or there's something wrong with the system, with the latter being the far more plausible explanation given the extreme odds involved. It's likely this event never occured in the history of FF14 thus far, and while that's not proof it cannot happen, one should be extremely suspicious if it did.

[Ilmoran]

If you really got 12 misses in a row with 90%, that's not a small sample. The chance of that happening is 1 trillion in 1. It is a virtual statistical impossibility.

The thing is, rolling a 10 sided die 12 times and getting 12 1's in a row is no less likely than rolling the specific sequence: 1, 3, 7, 7, 5, 2, 4, 3, 9, 0, 8, 2. The chance is also 1 trillion in 1. The difference is you actually care when you get 12 1's, you don't care when you get what you perceive to be a random sequence. In truth, 12 1's is a statistically insignificant sample size to prove that a 90% chance isn't really 90%.

That said, most computerized random number generators are actually pseudorandom number generators (they for the computer to do it, there must be a formula or algorithm; usually, it involves a seed value and a function of time from a set reference point), and are prone to streaking, but even out over large samples.

[ruinedmirage]

i got 5 HQs on +1 node with 10% HQ chance, and it happend to me 2 times in one day of farming
all i can say is, thank you for my HQs !!!

This exactly! Everyone always talks about the horrible experiences they have, but disregard that the same thing happens multiple times getting strings of HQ mats.

I've been at 701 out of 702 Quality while crafting and got a NQ item. Likewise, I've succeeded in getting a HQ item off the base chance without doing touches (1% chance).

As for the dice analogy, say you have a d10 and 10 people each betting on a different number. In 10 rolls, theoretically each person should be guaranteed a win ......... if the d10 took past rolls into account. The best you can do for the current situation is use some GP to get a better chance and/or level up to 100% success, and take the bad with the good.

[Bronn]

I just don't like the fact that you need to obtain large sample sizes to see the percentages to match the listed value. No, I do not want to craft 100k things to see the true expected value emerge...

I'm actually more infuriated by RNG in gathering/crafting than I had when wiping on Titan HM.

[Astarica]

No inexplicable event can be explained by anything other than extreme luck or a flaw in the system. If something has 1 trillion to 1 chance of occuring, you're not supposed to observe it unless you've unbelievably luck or the system is flawed. You can't explain this away with 'small sample'. If it happened, it's either crazy luck or the system is broken, with the latter being the far more likely outcome. Of course these events are almost always exaggerations, but if they happened you can say with near confidence that the RNG is not only flawed, it's flat out wrong.

[Dirtyfinger]

1% was never 1% in FFXI, so this wouldn't surprise me.

[Xbob42]

There have to be other factors that govern the actual percentage, because I can almost guarantee you the number you see, unless it is 0% or 100%, is not accurate. I have 90%s fail multiple times on every single craft, and everyone I know shows the same. Someone needs to log this shit, like, thousands of usages of it at different percentages, and I'm 100% sure it'll show that all percentages unless it's guaranteed to succeed or fail are MUCH lower than they appear to be.

For those arguing that it's totally normal, how many times in a row per day do you get a 10% or under synth/gathering? You might get the occasional HQ, but if I got a 10% HQ as often as I failed a 90% chance to do something in this game I'd have roughly 1/3 HQ items with no effort whatsoever.

[Astarica]

One way to look at probability is that if you make 1000 crafts, then statistically speaking it is extremely likely you'll see an event that should only happen 1 in 1000 times. However you should not see something that's supposed to only happen 1 million in 1 in 1000 attempts let alone anything rarer. To use a concrete example, with 90% chance to gather on a 6 gather node, the chance to fail 3 out of 6 is about 2%. I certainly have seen this happened and I certainly gathered these nodes far more than 50 times, so seeing 3 out of 6 fails with 90% chance isn't anything worth alarm unless it happens repeatedly. Now failing 6 in a row is 1 in 1 million, which I've yet to see and I should not expect to see it happen for a pretty long time. If I fail 12 in a row, that's 1 in 1 trillion and almost certain that the % displayed in the game are wrong, or that I should've bought a lottery ticket instead.

[Geobryn]

the server runs random calculations like trillion times a day, and there is one guy who saw 12 fails in a row, i guess it matches up :P