90% sucess rate and still missing

[enfer69]

Whoever designed the % system for acquiring nodes is a complete moron. I cant tell you the number of times I've had 90% chance to get item and miss 6 times in a row. Do they understand how %'s work? 90% chance means that 1 in every 10 swings will miss. How in the heck can I miss 6 times in a row? This happened back-to-back. Meaning I missed 12 times in a row with this percentage. This has got to be the most frustrating thing about this game. If I have 90% chance to obtain an item. I expect to have that kind of percentage.

[Baneus]

You do not have 1 miss in every 10 with 90% You in-fact have a 10% chance to miss with every single swing. That is how it works and how it has worked in every MMO I have ever played. The chance is static, not cumulative. Hope that clears it up for you

[Meta]

That's how probability works.

If someone rolls a 10-sided die and they get to punch my face each time they roll a 10, there's a 90% chance on each roll that I win. But it's entirely feasible that I could be slugged six rolls in a row.

It's seems like an incredibly unlikely outcome, just like your gathering example, but the game (and hopefully the universe) is not looking at your past rolls to determine the next. 1/10 chance is always a 1/10 chance on each swing.

[Minibiskit]

I agree that sometimes a chain of 4 fails on a 92% success node is extremely disheartening. It would be incredibly difficult to test if crafting/gathering percentages are statistically accurate. If anyone has tested this, please post your results and sample size you took.

[enfer69]

I understand that its a 10% chance every swing. But to miss 12 times in a row, does not reflect 90% chance to obtain an item. The actual chances for this to happen would be ridiculously high. I can understand if this was a 1 time deal. But this happens numerous times a week. And I'm not the only person. I had a FC member who missed a 99% chance 4 times in a row.

[Conradus]

90% chance means that 1 in every 10 swings will miss.

No, it doesn't. Go back and take basic probabability again until you pass.

[Baneus]

No, it doesn't. Go back and take basic probability again until you pass.

The primary problem is that the majority of people forget how basic probability works even after they have passed the High School maths class that they learned it in.

[Ricebowl]

OP needs to go back to math class.

[Ilmoran]

"Not a statistically significant sample size". Still my favorite phrase for these types of threads.

[Raminax]

Well, humans have the impressive tendency to look on the negative side of things as well. Hence failures when your Quality bar is at 96% are remembered while your HQ things gotten at 6% Quality are swiftly forgotten after a "Yes!".

That said, ever since I first tried crafting as a Leatherworker, I've learned to show absolute hatred towards anything below 100 % when it comes to odds and probabilities. :x