You underestimate Yoshida. There will be a level cap increase eventually, and there will be gear being rendered invalid. Has happened many times since the Sept 21, 2010 launch of this game.I'm relatively positive the level cap will NOT increase. The biggest issue with ffxiv right now is lack of content, specifically endgame.
The Devs have a ton of development to do, and the last thing they need is to make the current content they DO have become irrelevant. not to mention all the people that will be joining new come ARR that they want current endgame content to still be new and relevant for.
Lastly, while materia will have reforms, I still highly doubt SE is going to make some of the best gear (triple melds/etc) worthless, since it would be a big middle finger to the people that worked hard/paid a lot of gil for some of these items. In the last letter, i believe yoshi-p specifically stated they are "doing there best" to maintain relevancy for materia'd gear.
I think it will fall into the category where heavily melded gear will remain "upper tier" gear, but will not be the endall, be all gear.
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