Game Economy and the gil redenomination

[Ferth]

The prices people decide to list items for isn't going to be proportionate to 1/10th of what people list the same items for now lol, you guys are oblivious for believing that. Maybe some items will be listed for less than 1/10th of what they sell for now, but probably more of them will be listed for more, and no matter what if someone needs something that they can't farm themselves they will buy it.

This game isn't like the real world economy. People can, and do buy gil in this game, and it has a huge effect on the driving prices up in this game. With all the gil being bought more people can buy stuff, and as such undercutting doesn't have time to have as much of an effect on average sales prices. You guy think because they are cutting your savings by 1/10th it's all going to magically balance out the economy, but it isn't going to work out that way. You're just being naive. Prices are obviously going to be reduced but it's impossible to predict what the total average drop will be, and that chances are small its going to actually be 1/10th. It could turn out to be 2/10ths or even 9/10ths, but either way we're the ones who lose.

Even if this was like the real world economy your income doesn't effect the price of sales as much as you would think... The average income of households have increased over time, but the amount they've increase isn't proportionate to the cost of things. That's to say, even though people make more money today than they did in 1950 for example, the cost of a car today vs the car cost/income ratio in 1950 is way more.

These statistics are for the united states:
The average income in 1950 was $3,210.00, and the average cost of a new car was $1,510.00
The average income in 2011 was $31,111.00, and the average cost of a new car was $30,303.00
You do the math...

How much money you have isn't as big of a factor in the price of sales, that's true for real life, and it's especially true for a game where you can make money appear out of nowhere just by calling your friends over in China.

P.s.

You should stop calling people dumb, coming from you it sounds ludicrous. Not a good strategy... lol

First, I didn't call you stupid. I said you would have to be stupid to pay 1.0 prices for 2.0 items. It's up to you whether you want to do that when 2.0 rolls around.

You seem to think that we are moving into the same exact economy we are leaving when 2.0 arrives, and you are making arguments from that standpoint.

The economy in 2.0 will be brand new. Redenomination is not going to effect that. It will still be a brand new economy even if they don't change the amount of gil in the game.

The window for abuse purely because of redenomination is significantly smaller than the window for abuse just from the economical reset that 2.0 will represent, so trying to blame all of your perceived fears on the redenomination is a silly endeavor.

No one is saying that the player driven economy is going to drop to exactly 1/10th of what it is now, largely because it's not even going to be the same economy.

But in actuality everyone will be moving in to the new economy with the same relative wealth they will have leaving this economy. That is fact, regardless of how the economy will change, everyone will have the same relative wealth. And those changes are far more dependent on everything else that will change in 2.0 than they are on how much money everyone has.

[Vindrax]

Here is my "prediction":

How much does an Iron Chaser Hammer go on your server for right now? How much does a raw rubellite go for? How much does yew lumber go for? How much does diremite web go for?

Now the way I figure out my answers to these questions is by looking at the pricing history and how many are currently for sale on my server. If there's a lot up for sale and the history shows only two selling in the last week, I'm going to probably try to undercut the lowest. If none of the item are up for sale I'm probably going to list higher than the average sale price. Etc...

Now let's assume you knew the answers to all the questions above. Take a three month break, come back, look at your gil and try to remember what you answered for each of those questions. Most likely, you will not be able to. You're going to look at what people are listing the items for and determining if with the gil you have (and the pricing history if people are paying those prices) and how hard it would be for you to farm the item yourself, if it's worth your money.

So my "prediction", once 2.0 eventually hits, probably around March, most people will not even be able to remember the pricing that we know now and the market will automatically adjust to what people are reasonably willing to pay for items, and quickly. I expect for about 2ish weeks that there will be things sold for extremely inflated prices due to ignorance, and other items which have since become extremely valuable that sold for much less. I expect that there will be new players that will join our servers even when given the option to start on fresh ones creating more of a market for low level items.

What I don't expect: The redenomination of gil to have any meanigful impact on the in game economy. The only thing that's going to drastically effect the new economy is going to be how they rebalance the battle system and which items become increasingly rare to gatehrers/important to crafters. That's it.

[Renen]

And to all the people who are whining about high prices, dont forget that you can to farm up some of those "super expensive" items and then be the seller that charges "2x the price"

[Mijin]

But how do you think gil came to be in the first place? The game had 0 gil in its economy upon release, Guildleves and vendoring items is how the gil came to be. Player selling a player an item doesnt create gil in the system, all that other stuff you say doesnt matter does.

It mattered in the first week of the game, but not now because players have money already. Even new players will make the majority of their profits by selling items on the market wards. Those things only matter when everyone on the server is at 0 gil.

First, I didn't call you stupid.

Sorry for them misunderstanding then.

But in actuality everyone will be moving in to the new economy with the same relative wealth they will have leaving this economy. That is fact, regardless of how the economy will change, everyone will have the same relative wealth. And those changes are far more dependent on everything else that will change in 2.0 than they are on how much money everyone has.

Everyone who already plays the game will be moving into the new economy with the same scaled down wealth with 1/10th of what they have now, but it's important to consider new players will be starting out with 0, and I'm sure there will be a lot of new players. As such, the real impact of this scale down will be seen when we know how fast new players are able to obtain gil. If the prices of items on the market wards stays relatively high they will be able to catch up to us quickly, and that will be what really devalues our current savings.

The point I'm trying to make is that unless the items on the market ward are listed for prices directly proportionate to 1/10th (or less) of what they are now - we lose.

I don't really care about this that much, and I don't think it's the end of the world. It was probably necessary to complement the impending influx of new players, and there was really no way to avoid it. But it just bothers me to see so many people being naive about the subject.

[odintius]

I think majority reason why the prices are so high because of people are impulsive buyers if no one buy's the item for that insane amount eventually prices will go down. For me I am not going to buy something at that ridiculous price and will try to attain it on my own or level craft to make it myself. But I do believe impulsive buying is the root problem of mmo economy if you got people willing to buy those items at that insane amount you will have it for the rest of life of the mmo and they say the 1% is greedy.

Will this gimp me on some gear down the line because I don't buy it sure or maybe not, but at least I have my integrity and principles intact and not go on impulsive buying and add to the problem.

[Mijin]

I think majority reason why the prices are so high because of people are impulsive buyers if no one buy's the item for that insane amount eventually prices will go down. For me I am not going to buy something at that ridiculous price and will try to attain it on my own or level craft to make it myself. But I do believe impulsive buying is the root problem of mmo economy if you got people willing to buy those items at that insane amount you will have it for the rest of life of the mmo and they say the 1% is greedy.

Will this gimp me on some gear down the line because I don't buy it sure or maybe not, but at least I have my integrity and principles intact and not go on impulsive buying and add to the problem.

I don't buy a lot of things because I can make/gather everything myself. Unless I'm really pressed for time then I do, but the majority of players cannot farm, make everything themselves so they are forced to buy. Expecting people not to buy something that they need because the price is too high is like expecting people to stop buying gas because it's too expensive... It's just not going to happen.

[odintius]

I don't buy a lot of things because I can make/gather everything myself. Unless I'm really pressed for time then I do, but the majority of players cannot farm, make everything themselves so they are forced to buy. Expecting people not to buy something that they need because the price is too high is like expecting people to stop buying gas because it's too expensive... It's just not going to happen.

Then you will have what I said on first paragraph last sentence so I guess get use to it and be the gullible average person who will just except what giving to them.

[KaplanHomahru]

Three factors:

Supply
Demand
The amount of gil players have.

These have always and will always be what influences and sets the market. Obviously people can alter the amount of gil they have by buying gil...but these changes have nothing to do with that. What they are changing, is reducing the amount of gil players have by /a lot/. Seems obvious to me that the market would therefore readjust to this. IDK, maybe instead of using common sense people will skip directly to breaking ToS, risking losing everything, and buying gil. Time will tell. Personally, I'm going to be thinking a lot about the 1m gil I have and how it used to be 10m and will spend it accordingly.

Also, everyone talking about buying gil surely realizes that its probably going to be about 10 times more expensive to buy gil, right? So obviously not as much gil will be bought....

[Felis]

if electrum ore currently is 3000 gil each on the norm, and people change it to 300gil each in 2.0, nothing will have changed. Gil numbers just get smaller, that is all.

The way you gather the ores changes and so the prices change, too

People don't farm quests or kill mobs for gil, and no one really buys items from npcs... This games main form of income generation is the market wards, so none of that really matters.

Say it to the people who made millions before the atomos fix.
If no one sell to npc and no one make quests, then there would be no gil in the market.

If i buy something I'm looking on the time aspect.
The time I need to earn the money vers. the time I need to farm/craft the item myself

[Ferth]

Everyone who already plays the game will be moving into the new economy with the same scaled down wealth with 1/10th of what they have now, but it's important to consider new players will be starting out with 0, and I'm sure there will be a lot of new players. As such, the real impact of this scale down will be seen when we know how fast new players are able to obtain gil. If the prices of items on the market wards stays relatively high they will be able to catch up to us quickly, and that will be what really devalues our current savings.

I can certainly appreciate the fear there.

But you have to remember the game those new players will be coming into (hopefully) won't resemble anything like what a new player right now will see.

Yoshi-p estimated 30 hours to get to level 15 (compared to the 1-2 required right now.)

There will be a series of quests that new players are following to introduce them to game mechanics and features, all of which potentially reward them with money or items or both.

And even if sundry items do go up in relative price after 2.0 comes out, as long as the wards are sufficiently understandable and approachable in 2.0 then that means those new players will be able to take advantage of those same prices in selling their loot.

We haven't even seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to 2.0 changes. All things considered, the redenomination is pretty minor.