Game Economy and the gil redenomination

[TrystWildkey]

Ok, so my husband is mad at me because we have opposing viewpoints on the 'currency redenomination' plan of SE.

He is operating on the assumption that the game economy will work exactly like a real life economy and balance itself.

I am operating on the assumption that in an economy where you can buy gil, behavior will not match the real world.

That is the 'too long didn't read' version.

I admit that he does have some very valid points that I do not argue with.
-Everyone's gil is being reduced
-Any quest that provides gil will have the reward reduced
-The total gil being held by gil-seller's is reduced
-The total gil available in the world is reduced

The points that I have, he refuses to acknowledge
-Gil-sellers reduced amount of gil will be important for about a day before they restock
-Market ward pricing will not be automatically adjusted
-Sellers will have no real reason to reduce their prices because someone will have enough gil to purchase what they are selling

It is that last point that he so vehemently disagrees with. He thinks that no one will purchase the highly priced triple melded gear if the seller does not reduce their price.

I say that the seller has no real incentive to do so. Most likely, they don't *need* the gil to survive, and will not be forced into lowering the price. People who bought gil before, will buy it again. Elite groups that kill high level nm's with rare drops will continue to corner the market on that, and they have no real incentive to lower their prices either. Crafters that have access to elite groups that spiritbond gear at a high rate will continue to double and triple meld gear using high level materia. Because they are supported by elite groups, they also will have no compelling reason to reduce their prices.

So I'd like to open the discussion into the above. Will the prices on market wards be lowered with regard to the highest priced items? Someone prove me wrong without getting mad at me and giving me the silent treatment.

[Crevox]

It really doesn't matter either way. This is happening regardless.

Players might reduce their pricing, and they might not; it's a wait and see. That's all there is to it. Everyone is in an uproar about it, but there's really nothing we can do but wait and see.

Also, I hope you two resolve your argument... this is a poor topic to get frustrated over.

[indira]

RMT is probably setting a side alot of loot to control the economy again.

[Ferth]

The points that I have, he refuses to acknowledge
-Gil-sellers reduced amount of gil will be important for about a day before they restock
-Market ward pricing will not be automatically adjusted
-Sellers will have no real reason to reduce their prices because someone will have enough gil to purchase what they are selling

1. With the global reduction, gil sellers will need more than a day to reach the quantity they are at now. but with the redenomination the value of their lowered stock would roughly be the same anyway.

2. Market ward pricing won't be automatically adjusted, but there is going to be atleast (optimism!) a month of down time and beta testing before 2.0 goes live. Who knows if retainers will even keep items in their bazaar? Most likely bazaars will be purged across the board.

3. It will be a brand new economy on every server after 2.0 launches, if anyone tries to maintain old prices their items will not sell. Prices are dictated by what people are willing to pay, end of story. For every one ass-hat trying to sell an item at 1.0 pricing there will be 10 people selling items at competitive 2.0 pricing.

And just for my own edification, just how prevalent do you think gil buying is? It sounds like you are afraid the majority of the population will see their deflated wallets in 2.0 and go "Oh snap, best buy me some gilz!"

The game economy will function far closer to an actual economy than you seem to think. That's how it works now, there's no reason it will stop working that way in 2.0

[Nox]

I'm sure there will be a few people crazy enough and with enough gil to perhaps afford current prices in ARR. However, seeing as this will not be the majority, prices will inevitably all fall to meet what the overall majority can afford. Also, Elite groups don't function without a massive market of people willing and able to buy whatever it is they are selling.

The best thing I can honestly tell you to do is just to not think about this too much. The first few weeks of ARR will take a lot of getting used to-overall. Not only is the entire numeric of the economy going to change- even though as the devs have pointed out again and again your gil's worth will stay the SAME- people who have been playing since launch will have to find new prices for all items within the community or they just wont really sell much. Along with all this stuff we will all be relearning basically every single aspect of the game for what feels like the third time. sooo yea, people have all these different ideas about what's going to happen and honestly the only thing that CAN happen is chaos at first as people try to figure out what items should be priced at, and then stability as the majority of people (who are honestly the most important in the market as they are the ones buying) set the standard for pricing with their collective purchasing power.

[GinTama]

Ok, so my husband is mad at me because we have opposing viewpoints on the 'currency redenomination' plan of SE.

He is operating on the assumption that the game economy will work exactly like a real life economy and balance itself.

I am operating on the assumption that in an economy where you can buy gil, behavior will not match the real world.

That is the 'too long didn't read' version.

I admit that he does have some very valid points that I do not argue with.
-Everyone's gil is being reduced
-Any quest that provides gil will have the reward reduced
-The total gil being held by gil-seller's is reduced
-The total gil available in the world is reduced

The points that I have, he refuses to acknowledge
-Gil-sellers reduced amount of gil will be important for about a day before they restock
-Market ward pricing will not be automatically adjusted
-Sellers will have no real reason to reduce their prices because someone will have enough gil to purchase what they are selling

It is that last point that he so vehemently disagrees with. He thinks that no one will purchase the highly priced triple melded gear if the seller does not reduce their price.

I say that the seller has no real incentive to do so. Most likely, they don't *need* the gil to survive, and will not be forced into lowering the price. People who bought gil before, will buy it again. Elite groups that kill high level nm's with rare drops will continue to corner the market on that, and they have no real incentive to lower their prices either. Crafters that have access to elite groups that spiritbond gear at a high rate will continue to double and triple meld gear using high level materia. Because they are supported by elite groups, they also will have no compelling reason to reduce their prices.

So I'd like to open the discussion into the above. Will the prices on market wards be lowered with regard to the highest priced items? Someone prove me wrong without getting mad at me and giving me the silent treatment.

I think it depends on the items, how sellers are gonna handle it .... its always the same principle. If the seller has a monopoly over the item or its just damn rare. buyer will decide if the want to buy it or not.

BUT items that are abit more common and competition is harder, this is where prices are getting cut to the point where its it represents demand and supply.

[Reika]

if sellers dont reduce their prices, it would behoove people to just not buy from them.\

Other than stupid sellers, gil redenomination isnt going to be a problem.

[Claire_Ares]

Gonna have to side with your husband.

No one is going to pay the 1.0 price for 2.0 items. Anyone who tries to sell it for the 1.0 price (specially high end items like 20m materia / 60m triple melds) will never have their items move. It really is that simple.

If the economy went the other way and 10m became 100m, do you think sellers would still be asking the same old 10M for the materia? Hell no, theyd want 100m now.

[Alhanelem]

The points that I have, he refuses to acknowledge
-Gil-sellers reduced amount of gil will be important for about a day before they restock
-Market ward pricing will not be automatically adjusted
-Sellers will have no real reason to reduce their prices because someone will have enough gil to purchase what they are selling

Gil sellers are not impacted in the same way that players are not impacted. You're right that this doesn't harm gil sellers, but that's because it's not MEANT to affect gil sellers. that's not what this change is about.

Market ward prices WILL automatically adjust, and here's why:

1) there will not be anything on the wards when the servers come back up, therfor everyone will have to re-list their stuff.
2) Everyone has less gil, therefore nobody will be willing to pay old prices
3) Anyone who tries to sell for a higher price than the economy will allow will find that nobody is able to buy their stuff, therefore they will have to lower the price or risk pricing themselves out of the market their item is intended for. This is basic economics and supply and demand.

YOUR BUYING POWER WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. Because demand for many items may change in 2.0, prices will not be exactly the same- Some will be higher some will be lower. Overall, there won't be a major difference.

Governments have done currency redenominations many times throughout history. Every time, it's generally welcomed because it's easier to deal in a smaller number of larger units. Generally people do not lose buying power.

In the first weeks or so there may be some anomalies- but because of the reasons outlined above, those anomalies will correct themselves without any special intervention.

It is that last point that he so vehemently disagrees with. He thinks that no one will purchase the highly priced triple melded gear if the seller does not reduce their price.

OK, so let's consider double melded relic quest weapons, which sell for tens of millions of gil. There may be people who have 100, 150 million gil or more who would buy these without hesitation- 10-20 mil is not that huge of an impact to them. But after the redenomination, and they only have 10, 15 million gil, they are sure as hell not going to be willing to part with all of their gil for what would have only been a small part of their gil before.

Rich or poor, nobody is going to accept old prices. This will affect everyone equally.

[Pyretta_Blaze]

We also will have to adjust to the new battle system They have told us that that triple meld gear isn't going to have as much bang anymore. Its value will go down even if the price does not.

I don't usually buy melded gear from the wards anyway, I get the mats for a few tries and have a LS mate attempt for me. If the price of the attempts gets higher than the price of finished item on the market ward (measured in the price of the mats/my time to farm the mats) then I might consider buying it off the wards.

In the end I believe that other 2.0 variables will mess with prices far more than any redenomination. There will surely be more players both new and returning and that is going to play havoc with supply and demand. Battle system, crafting and gathering changes will probably change the actual value of current items. There will probably be new items available at or soon after 2.0 launches.

Unless someone can hold a monopoly on items it should settle down and people will be able to buy what the need at reasonable prices.