Will FFXIV : AAR reach 1 million subscribers in less than One year?!!!?

[Delsus]

Yeh, I explained to him the reason of why and how they were doing it. To some it is the end of the world in a ways, the end of the world they had created for themselves in the game. I did try and get him to come back and do what you said, but no go.. and if he is saying this, you know others will also. just sayin

If they will not play because of something this small, then (don't take this the wrong way, I'm not trying to offend you, or people you know) we are probably better off without them, if the game is a success and they start playing they are no more than jumping on the FFXIV bandwagon, but up to now it just looks like they would complain at any change they do not like.

[Pooky]

A million subs? When there's so many high quality AAA F2P option MMO's out there? For a game that has "failed" once already? Not a chance.

Like it or not, the Final Fantasy name doesn't have the pull it used to. And I'm sure people will be up in arms when I say it, but sub only MMO's are a dying breed. Specially if you expect to have a million subs and stuff like that. Before WoW, an MMO was successful with a couple hundred thousand subs. Since, WoW no MMO has had even a fraction of its success. WoW is an aberration that will never happen again. Yet people want to start expecting huge sub numbers for their MMO's just cause of 1 outlier. FFXI succeeded because it had the FF name which meant a lot more back in the early 2000's. The competition was modest until WoW. The competition all costed the same. Now, you have a lot more AAA MMO's, a lot more F2P MMO's that are way more than the stereotypical Pay to Win games that people invariably think of as soon as they hear F2P and the FF name carries a lot less value.

There will be a bunch of loyal players who will support the game no matter what. Heck, anyone who has subscribed to the game currently in 2012 is plenty loyal. There's plenty to make it a very successful niche game. But if you start expecting a consistent million+ subscribers for your MMO in 2013, then you are delusional.

[Anakhu]

If they will not play because of something this small, then (don't take this the wrong way, I'm not trying to offend you, or people you know) we are probably better off without them, if the game is a success and they start playing they are no more than jumping on the FFXIV bandwagon, but up to now it just looks like they would complain at any change they do not like.

I hear ya, I came back with all my stuff dated and only 400k gil. Was I disapointed, sure as hell was, especially when I noticed nobody wanted to buy that old dated gear anymore. Yet, I am still trying to stick it out and cope with the change i have been faced with. Some people get attached to what they have created in games and more so in fantasy rpg games, when you disturb that, cries will always be made. When you completely change everything they left from, I find it completely understandable to not want to go back.. even if it would only hurt in a short term.. you still are left feeling like you got stomped on and left in the mud. Some can suck it up, some can not, some are just stubborn. I have not gave up on trying to get him to come back, but i know if he has this feeling, many many others do aswell.. these changes may seem like nothing to someone who has been playing for the last 6 months.. but for someone who hasnt played since the first 6 months, it can be disheartening and leaving them in a bad mood

[Miliant]

It's amazing how FFXI started out having around 500,000 subscribers when I started playing in 2004 and consistently continued to maintain 500,000 subscribers for four years even though the population clearly took a massive drop to the point where cities looked like ghost towns.

So, as far as number of subscriptions is concerned 1. it means nothing, and 2. you can expect absolute bs.

[Airget]

It comes down to how well they can market themselves to everyone's playstyle.One thing that thwarted XI's potential growth was the lack of a balanced pvp system or rather lack of care for balancing one out. They tried multiple times to create a pvp system but then never took the time or care to really work on it to make it something not only fun but worthwhile doing.

I mean honestly XIV has to look at XI and understand what worked and what didn't work. If they understand that much integrating concepts into 14 then they will have no problem reaching 500k+ in a year at least or at least surpassing XI's subs.

This is what they should keep an eye on as they create concepts into XIV.

Mistakes that 11 made:
-Making events like Ballista, Brenner and pankration forgotten/never taking the time to balance them out
-Introducing BLU which pretty much trumped any fighter in pvp with their wide range of abilities
-Lack of overall balance in terms of abilities accessible to each job in pvp
-Introducing concepts but then either ditching them or never truly fleshing them out properly
--Examples are Pankration, Moblin maze Monger, Evoliths to name a few
-Introducing a concept like Evolith, then pretty much trumping it by introducing a better system Trials of the Magian
-Introducing concepts as if to treat the game itself as a test server rather then test them out before introducing
--Example being Evoliths then pretty much ditching the concept and introducing Trials of the Magian
--Pankration then turning it into a lame events which is just used to do another event
-Slowing down the release of content to increase longevity of the game rather then working hard to produce content
--WOTG expansion took years to complete compared to other expansions and their attempts to release new content was lackluster
--charging 10 dollars for a story content which had 3 different releases and all followed the same basic progression through story
-When the developers themselves start to show a lack of care in the content they release then the players will respond by leaving, with XIV this isn't the case atm since they are clearly showing the passion they have for the future of this game and even XI itself is showing passion in it's future as well as expansion coming out by next year.

The above noted aren't necessarily mistakes still going on in XI, but they are the mistakes which caused wavering support in SE's MMO and is something that the producers of XIV should always keep an eye on as to not fall prey to. When they themselves stop showing the passion and care they have in a game then people will stop coming. However, as long as they show that they care and will introduce new and engaging concepts as well as content which can be enjoyed by a wide population people will come and the server population will increase.

What XIV needs to look out for in general is the following.
-They need content which casual can enjoy and feel like they are not only rewarded properly but feel that they earned what they got
-Hardcores need to be given a challenge which they feel is difficult and the reward themselves is worthwhile to obtain
-PVP need a balanced and well maintained battleground which fully supports any class and doesn't leave one class superior to the other, however in 14's case this isn't as much as an issue since one can freely change classes but for those who have a favorite class to play one would hope that they work hard in making sure that every class is viable in pvp rather then having one outshine over the other.
-Any concepts introduced into the game that have any potential for a chance of expansion overtime need to be expanded rather then tossed aside for something new/making it where said content becomes obsolete. Basically they need to make sure that they work hard on making every content type worthwhile to do rather then introducing new things which cause old content to be worthless to do. But in the same sense they can't make the same mistake as XI and introduce a concept like Evolith only for it to be replaced by Trials of the magian later on.

Alpha will tell a lot though, based on what they show and what they have planned for release will definitely tell how much the game will grow in one year. If the game wants to grow then pvp will be priority to have with release, however it would only be good to have on release if they have it fairly balanced where no class is superior to another. Granted that in itself is hard to pull off but as long as there's some sense of balance they can obtain a lot of players through pvp alone.

There are definitely a lot of variables to think about though and the only way to truly figure out if they can hit that many subs in a year is based on what we see planned for release. Once people have an idea of what's confirmed for release then it will be easier to speculate/get an idea of how well the game will do in one year.

[Elexia]

--WOTG expansion took years to complete compared to other expansions and their attempts to release new content was lackluster.

2007 - 2009, guess what game they were producing between that time frame? I'll give you a hint: You're posting on it's forum.

[PinkamenaDiane]

To get better idea on making 1m subs. Sony had to give away DCUO make it free on PSN to gain 1m players. FFXIV being a pay game its very unlikely to happen. FFXI had 500k players at its peak.

[Elexia]

To get better idea on making 1m subs. Sony had to give away DCUO make it free on PSN to gain 1m players. FFXIV being a pay game its very unlikely to happen. FFXI had 500k players at its peak.

No it didn't, FFXI had 750k+ at it's peak and that was before MMOs were actually fairly common place.

[Anakhu]

what happened between 2006 and 2008 that made XI go from 250k subs to 500k subs? just curious, because it was launched in 02' and was on ps2 by 04', numbers started dropping and then bam SE claimed to have gone from 250k subs to 500k+ in those 2 years late in development. I have played all the final fantasy there is except XI.. whatever it was that brought on that change, they should look into it and try and use the same approach possibly?

[Anakhu]

No it didn't, FFXI had 750k+ at it's peak and that was before MMOs were actually fairly common place.

I'm pretty sure peak was 500k subs with about 200k daily players..