2026 FanFests

[brinn12]

If it's truly a one-year period from 7.5 to 8.0, we can now understand why the Ultimate is releasing in 2026. I'll be pleasantly surprised if we don't drop to Stormblood numbers this expansion. It used to be 5 months, maybe 6...

[Jeeqbit]

If it's truly a one-year period from 7.5 to 8.0, we can now understand why the Ultimate is releasing in 2026. I'll be pleasantly surprised if we don't drop to Stormblood numbers this expansion. It used to be 5 months, maybe 6...

I think the numbers will get lower (possibly misrepresented a bit this time round due to the Free Login campaign). Probably really, really, really low.

But when 8.0 finally releases, I think everyone will just return to the game again and do it despite everything they said about quitting etc. Even if they quit immediately after finishing the MSQ. That happened with Dawntrail after all despite resentment towards Endwalker content and patch story.

They may get more for 8.0 if the trailer is actually something super cool and interesting like Shadowbringers was.

That's my prediction, not being positive or negative, I just think that people always talk about quitting but then they peak in at expansion launch anyways even if they quit right after.

[brinn12]

I think the numbers will get lower (possibly misrepresented a bit this time round due to the Free Login campaign). Probably really, really, really low.

But when 8.0 finally releases, I think everyone will just return to the game again and do it despite everything they said about quitting etc. Even if they quit immediately after finishing the MSQ. That happened with Dawntrail after all despite resentment towards Endwalker content and patch story.

They may get more for 8.0 if the trailer is actually something super cool and interesting like Shadowbringers was.

That's my prediction, not being positive or negative, I just think that people always talk about quitting but then they peak in at expansion launch anyways even if they quit right after.

The difference is that Endwalker's lows were still decent. We're not even halfway through Dawntrail, and the Steam charts have already hit a monthly low not seen since late 2020. Luckybancho also noted that FFXIV lost active players during a period when those numbers had always gone up in past expansions. We can't expect people to keep coming back forever.

[Jeeqbit]

The difference is that Endwalker's lows were still decent. We're not even halfway through Dawntrail, and the Steam charts have already hit a monthly low not seen since late 2020. Luckybancho also noted that FFXIV lost active players during a period when those numbers had always gone up in past expansions. We can't expect people to keep coming back forever.

I agree with all that and some people won't come back, but overall, I think that a lot of people who quit just end up returning eventually anyway because SE has their email address to remind them of patches and free login campaigns. I also just meet people in the game or even see people on the forums who "quit" but they couldn't help themselves but to eventually come back eventually, at least for a month.

Also we have an example with WoW where no matter how much people "quit" and doomed on the game for years, they kept coming back due to sunk cost or some other reason, especially at expansion launches.