I would encourage anyone who is considering doing the Forked Tower to give it a try. I understand the “I don’t want to join a discord to do this content” mentality because I used to be the exact same way, but it’s really the only way to do the content the way it was designed.
16+ random people meeting up and going into the Tower without any type of coordination is going to lead to a very quick wipe. To clear the content and maximize the rewards, you need the right combination of Thief/Geos/Time Mages/Bards/Chemists/Knights/etc. You will never get this without coordination prior to entry.
The good thing is that some of the discords have a lot of really cool/friendly people in them who are willing to teach the fights and optimize the group’s composition so you actually have a chance of progging/clearing. They will do callouts in voice that are meant to help teach and minimize mistakes. In this content, 1-2 people botching certain mechanics can absolutely wipe all 48 people and send everyone packing. The point of the callouts/voice is to minimize the risk. Even with the callouts, there are still times where 1-2 people will derp and wipe everyone. When this happens, it’s heavily frowned upon to criticize the person who made the mistake, at least in the groups I’ve been in.
I can also sympathize with people who aren’t thrilled when one of their team members doesn’t make it into the raid because a random person walked up and put in a cipher. I have never seen 16+ random people walk up and put a cipher in so the only way you’re getting in without being a part of the coordinated group is walking up and sniping someone’s spot. It’s not fun to try and get 48 people into the same instance, wait 35 minutes for the weather change, and then lose people who may be playing critical roles in the raid to random people who walk up and don’t want to coordinate.
Last night we had a run where the raid leader didn’t get in (despite putting in 2 ciphers), the person who does all the callouts, and it was just a bummer. The coordinated groups are also dealing with griefers who are intentionally joining these discords to spy on times/DCs for the runs, trying to snipe spots for them with the sole purpose of trying to agitate people in say chat, get them to respond negatively, then report them and try and get them banned when they talk back.
The bottom line is that SE royally botched the entry system for this raid. If 48 people want to get together and coordinate a run without worrying about people sniping spots, they should be able to. If people don’t want to do any prep/coordination and just want to randomly queue in and see what happens, they should be able to, but those people should all be matched together. Make it to where 48 people can queue in together and also make it to where randoms can queue in and match with other randoms. The current system is awful as designed and is only going to do more harm than good.