Dawntrail Predictions

[Turethir]

Here's my diagram Please note this contains spoilers for Media Tour/LL information!

Click here - it's big

It focuses more on structure based on evidence we've had so far from in-game and the trailer - story elements are more fuzzy.

[Cleretic]

Sadly, the preliminary patch notes have reminded me about another prediction that I'm surprised I didn't write down, but is no longer all that impressive if I do write it:

The ALC/CUL questline will be yet another storyline that is entirely written for Culinarian that only barely remembers to justify that Alchemist is there too. I will be the only person actively mad about this.

[fulminating]

This might seem a bit out there, but an underwater area which allows you to see the coral encrusted rocket boosters beneath the quite clearly alien fishing village. This will be a purely environmental storyline with little to no textual acknowledgement.

[KatBoreas]

Some last-minute predictions:
(note that I decided not to watch the launch trailer to avoid spoilers, so apologies if any of the following has already been confirmed or ruled out)

- It's pretty much a given that DT will contain references to FF9, but since 6.55 already namedropped Relm and Valigarmanda it might also draw inspiration from FF6 (which is my favorite game in the series so I hope that's true!).

- Speaking of Valigarmanda, since it has been referred to a "legendary beast" and also shares its name with a summon from an earlier FF, there's a good chance it will turn out to be a primal (or rather, we will have to fight a primal based on it). After all, there's no reason why summon magic couldn't exist in the New World as well. It'sd possible that it has been lost for centuries and now the villain has revived it to further his plans (only to have those plans thwarted by the fact that Wuk Lamat happened to invite the Primal Slayer on her team).

- Which brings me to the (inevitable?) Ascians. Maybe one of the surviving Convocation members whose names we were told to recall was responsible for introducing summoning, and now we will have to deal with them. Also, given that Zodiark is gone and everything the Ascians fought for all these millenia has fallen apart, the survivors are bound to be suffering a major existential crisis that might be enough to turn them around. After all, Emet-Selch did acknowledge they had been on the wrong path all along; maybe some of the others realized that as well, and now they want to make amends and help us. I mean, by this point we've gotten chummy with pretty much all our surviving foes, including Gaius van Baelsar, so working alongside a reformed Ascian would only be the logical conclusion (not to mention that the Eden storyline already gave us a reformed former Ascian as ally, although she has no memories of her former life).

- And lastly, given that 6.55 presented Wuk Lamat as somewhat boastful, we can expect her to get some major character developement over the course of DT, possibly furthered by a major event that will have as much of an impact as the Crystal Braves fiasco did for Alphinaud.

[Iscah]

Throwing in a last-minute wildcard prediction (while I sit here in "let me in" mode):

The reason they're being all coy about Solution Nine's residents isn't because they're something unearthly, it's because they're Viera and Erenville is from there.

[Talonk]

The story actually being good

[Iscah]

Theory at level 92: Solution Nine's inhabitants are incorporeal (as other posters have predicted but I never liked as a prospect) and they've been spinning the tale of the golden city to lure people in and then bodysnatch them, which is why anyone who seeks it doesn't return.

[Cleretic]

I suddenly remembered this thread, and decided it'd be fun to do a quick review. Highlighting mainly people who were accurate with a guess that didn't seem to be a given.

-after settling the differences between nations we learn there was a mastermind probably in the form a great ai presence created by the original creators of the golden city an we have to shut it down to free the enslaved citizens of the golden city.

Nailing the final boss basically out of nowhere is worth due credit.

4. Wuk Lamat turns out to be a terrible leader, tyrannical and everyone hates her, everyone hates us especially because we helped her become Dawnservant

Most of NegativeS' guesses were off the mark because they were really into this 'Wuk Lamat is a bad person' idea, but I do think it's funny that if you swap out Wuk Lamat with Zoraal Ja it's actually not too far wrong.

My other prediction is that the game will end with Wuk Lamat and Koana co-ruling and Zoraal dead. Galool Ja Ja's titles being "Vow of Resolve" and "Vow of Reason" feels too pointed. Wuk Lamat is resolve personified and Koana seems to lean reason.

I remember thinking this one felt like a reach when I first read it, but... no, Grivvaint got it.

-Erenville is not secretly important to the succession contest, but otherwise has deep connections to the overarching historical storyline.

Basically the only person I saw anywhere that explicitly bet on Erenville remaining a low-key presence.

-The whole throne contest thing will be over and done with by like, level 93. Mayyyybe 95.

-Everything we generally know about currently will also be wrapped up by 95ish, and that’s when “the fire nation attacks” and stuff we couldn’t predict goes down. I vote hollow earth with low ish confidence. I wouldn’t bet money on it, but wouldn’t be surprised either.

The broad strokes of this prediction I'd have called pretty safe, but kaynide was right about the turn being at level 95 exactly, and that's impressive.

Here's my diagram Please note this contains spoilers for Media Tour/LL information!

Click here - it's big

It focuses more on structure based on evidence we've had so far from in-game and the trailer - story elements are more fuzzy.

Turethir almost scored 100% on the actual structure of the expansion; the only things they whiffed on were a circling back to earlier zones that didn't happen, and putting what we now know as Vanguard instead where Origenics is. I consider this mainly impressive because of them correctly putting the Kozuma'uka and Urqopacha revisits right after the split instead of near the end, which has actually never happened before.

And last of all, my own predictions were mostly me having fun, and a lot of them are community reaction predictions that won't be properly proven right or wrong anytime soon, but a few were either surprisingly close out of nowhere or comically off the mark.

• The most that the Ascians/Ancients get will be an off-handed mention that you wouldn't even notice without looking for it. Unless you're talking to someone who's primarily an Ascian/Ancient fan, in which case it'll sound like the single most important part of the story. (Calling the Ascians/Ancients a footnote would be overselling their presence, but we're still speculating on 'em.)
• One of the main Mamool Ja will be played by a 'That Guy'-level actor, where you kinda recognize their voice but can't put your finger on it until you hit the credits and go 'OH YEAH HIM'. (Gulool Ja Ja's VA was Twister in Rocket Power!)
• Y'shtola's role will be minimal and essentially amount to a cameo. People will still complain about it somehow. (Look, 'complaining' was the given here, the 'basically a cameo' was the long shot.)
• Krile's storyline is going to be one of the most moving stories in the entire game. Despite this, it'll be about the fourth or fifth bullet point for Dawntrail's high points in the collective community memory of the story. (She made me cry, but I don't see anyone else owning up to that.)
• Nobody in the main cast will die, and if we're honest nobody really comes close. You'll have a 'friend-of-a-friend' level acquaintance who's way madder about this than you can really fathom. (Comically wrong; I think Dawntrail might have the highest 'named character bodycount' of all expansions.)
• The will be a time magic-adjacent story element, possibly around that chalice-ey looking macguffin in the gameplay trailer; not time travel, but something around slowing, reversing or freezing time, or stopping aging, something in that general range. It won't actually be that complicated, but will somehow get the most 'I don't understand'-level questions of the entire expansion. (how was I completely on the money on this one)
  
  The ALC/CUL questline will be yet another storyline that is entirely written for Culinarian that only barely remembers to justify that Alchemist is there too. I will be the only person actively mad about this. (The Botanist/Miner questline has more alchemy in it!)

[kaynide]

The broad strokes of this prediction I'd have called pretty safe, but kaynide was right about the turn being at level 95 exactly, and that's impressive.

To be fair, almost every expansion to date has been kinda this way in -some- way.

That is to say, other than Stormblood, we typically get something that we couldn't have guessed before the expac launched at around X5 level.

-Heavansward Around 55 is where we "defeat" Nidhogg and the narrative shifts back to Ascians and the pope.
-Stormblood is a wildcard, they were still figuring it out I guess.
-Shadowbringers is when Emet joins the party more...formally? And reveals the whole Hyd/Zod are primals bit.
-Endwalker we saw Elpis

It was a guess, but it's also pretty formulaic by now to reveal -something- new story-wise by X5.

[fulminating]

I don’t really know how visible named characters have to be to count. I think endwalker base probably beats dt, shb might too.

Arr: the waking sands guys including lettuce and amnesiacs, dolorous bear’s team and edda’s fiancé, namingway the spy [~11]
Hw: ysael, haruchfant, lahabrea, iggy, thordan, a dozen knights but they don’t really count. [5-17]
Sb: old resistance man, Zenos, namedayboy, papalymo just missed out by a hair, the guy Zenos or fordola killed from arr [~4]
Shb: tesleen, vauthry, hades, ardbert and his friends. Also alphinaud, alise and the player character in the calamity timeline [8-11+]
Ew: king man, hermes, zenos, fandaniel, hydaelyn, zodiark/elidibus, quintus, (Elvis and the contacted civilisations if they count too) [7+]
Dt: 57 year old nurse, gajaja, zaja, untrustworthy vizier, erenville ‘s mother, (all the npcs in living memory), the head of reason can count separately. [6+]