If you ask me, the best kind of prediction is to call a really specific shot, so that it actually looks impressive when you land one and we all forget that you wildly missed on all the rest.
And personally my style is to instead predict around the story, not directly at it, so here's mine:
- Koana will be the most popular new character in the expansion, despite having very little personality and not actually doing all that much.
- Shaaloani will have an overwrought pun FATE name that we'll all curse Koji Fox for. It will actually be Kate's doing.
- The most that the Ascians/Ancients get will be an off-handed mention that you wouldn't even notice without looking for it. Unless you're talking to someone who's primarily an Ascian/Ancient fan, in which case it'll sound like the single most important part of the story.
- One of the main Mamool Ja will be played by a 'That Guy'-level actor, where you kinda recognize their voice but can't put your finger on it until you hit the credits and go 'OH YEAH HIM'.
- The twist around Solution Nine will actually be fairly mundane compared to most leading predictions about it. People will call it a bad twist at the time, but it's mostly because they overshot it in weirdness; people who weren't on the pre-release prediction train will be kinder to it.
- One of the role quests--let's say melee DPS--will get a REALLY angry community around it. Everyone will either be completely in agreement that it was absolutely horrible, or will go 'I dunno what everyone's so mad about, that was just fine'. Not great, just fine.
- Y'shtola's role will be minimal and essentially amount to a cameo. People will still complain about it somehow.
- Krile's storyline is going to be one of the most moving stories in the entire game. Despite this, it'll be about the fourth or fifth bullet point for Dawntrail's high points in the collective community memory of the story.
- Nobody in the main cast will die, and if we're honest nobody really comes close. You'll have a 'friend-of-a-friend' level acquaintance who's way madder about this than you can really fathom.
- The game won't meaningfully be any harder on either the casual or hardcore levels, but the second trial will have a single mechanic that just obliterates casual runs.
- Zoraal Ja will have a solo boss fight that we plot-lose. The reason for our loss will be entirely reasonable and not even especially impactful beyond just handing us an L, but people will still be upset that it happened.
- Wuk Lamat's story will be okay-not-great with a few strong scenes. It'll be broadly well-received, except among a small collection of people that apparently either didn't understand it or are willingly misinterpreting it; you will never be confident which.
- The will be a time magic-adjacent story element, possibly around that chalice-ey looking macguffin in the gameplay trailer; not time travel, but something around slowing, reversing or freezing time, or stopping aging, something in that general range. It won't actually be that complicated, but will somehow get the most 'I don't understand'-level questions of the entire expansion.
- Overall, the community will like Dawntrail's story just fine, probably around Heavensward-level but without the novelty of 'I didn't know this game could be good'.
I think what we're learning is that the main thing I'm confident about is what people will get mad about.


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