I need an Umbral Calamity refresher as Dawntrail has me confused

[silentwindfr]

My assumptions

This was a shard set up for a later Calamity and Rejoining, prepped for it, and gone a bit out of control without an Ascian there to coax it to work properly.

hmmmm... about this

make no sense, the difference of time it's how fast the time pass from one shard to another, not rewind time. it's more how the time pass faster in one shard and slower in another, in the case it seems the primal world is generally the one slower....
if we take this as fact, then the 2nd calamity can't be link to the the shard we did meet, 2 reason:
- one the shard still exist as we see at the end of the story when the sun rise. and it's not possible to have a shard exist after a fusion, they are fused and disappear into the primal world.
- second, we know this shard go faster than the primal. since it seems the event of the arrival of the lalafell was very very very long ago for this shard. and the fact that 30 years did pass before the two dimension was aligned temporaly. and it explain too, why the technology is soo evolved in comparaison with the primal world.

means this shard is definitivly another one than the one of the 2nd.
another point, we don't have 13 element even with light and darkness. then at one time it was possible to have another shard affected by the same element than another one, without forget maybe they have mess up them own world. without the ascian help...

[Ilenya]

hmmmm... about this

make no sense, the difference of time it's how fast the time pass from one shard to another, not rewind time. it's more how the time pass faster in one shard and slower in another, in the case it seems the primal world is generally the one slower....
if we take this as fact, then the 2nd calamity can't be link to the the shard we did meet, 2 reason:
- one the shard still exist as we see at the end of the story when the sun rise. and it's not possible to have a shard exist after a fusion, they are fused and disappear into the primal world.
- second, we know this shard go faster than the primal. since it seems the event of the arrival of the lalafell was very very very long ago for this shard. and the fact that 30 years did pass before the two dimension was aligned temporaly. and it explain too, why the technology is soo evolved in comparaison with the primal world.

means this shard is definitivly another one than the one of the 2nd.
another point, we don't have 13 element even with light and darkness. then at one time it was possible to have another shard affected by the same element than another one, without forget maybe they have mess up them own world. without the ascian help...

You're misunderstanding.

Some of the elements have to be doubled (or the whole elemental thing is wildly different than we were led to believe, but let's play it safer) so a second Lightning Calamity would be possible. And while time travel isn't generally possible, that wouldn't matter for a Lightning-Aspected Shard being prepared for a later Calamity. Also, I'm pretty sure the time dilation is entirely because of the aetherial warping and the void, considering the First never gets a synced connection but happens to be on Source time when we get there. It's even brought up in Shadowbringers.

[Sairys]

You're misunderstanding.

Some of the elements have to be doubled (or the whole elemental thing is wildly different than we were led to believe, but let's play it safer) so a second Lightning Calamity would be possible. And while time travel isn't generally possible, that wouldn't matter for a Lightning-Aspected Shard being prepared for a later Calamity. Also, I'm pretty sure the time dilation is entirely because of the aetherial warping and the void, considering the First never gets a synced connection but happens to be on Source time when we get there. It's even brought up in Shadowbringers.

I don't think that's the safer assumption because of Shadowbringers and the elemental chart.

The first six calamities follow the generative elemental cycle which works clockwise around the wheel. Then we have the "aspected" calamities of Darkness and Light. The elemental chart also contains the Conquests (Earth, Water, Lightning) and Submissions (Fire, Ice, Wind) as well as the Solar(Fire and Earth), Lunar(Water and Wind), and Celestial(Lightning and Ice) pairings, assuming the Astro cards are correct and the chart has Lunar and Solar pairings reversed. If each of those is a potential calamity that's a perfect thirteen unique calamities represented on the elemental chart.

Personally, the time dilation is further reason to doubt it's the Ascians preparing the shard. The lightning in Alexandria's world started before Krile was born, she was brought across as a baby before the seventh calamity, and she's now twenty-two. Given only a few days passed in the source while thirty years passed in Alexandria, potentially tens of thousands of years have passed in Alexandria since Krile was born. It doesn't make sense for the Ascians to risk another situation like the Thirteenth by keeping the reflection on the edge of calamity for that long, especially because the time dilation would mean even a year on the source would give them hundreds of years to work with on the shard. If it's an Ascian calamity, they had at least two other calamities to work on before this and they would have needed to prep the source for a lightning calamity.

I'm pretty sure that weirdness is intentional especially because it's happening at the beginning of a new cycle of expansions, the next saga after the one we've just finished. I think it's meant to provoke these questions and the feeling that something is out of place.
The wrongness for me points to it not being Ascians, that it's another group that doesn't know everything that we've learned in the previous saga. This then leads to questions about who that could be, where I think we should consider things like... the source survives and grows stronger with rejoinings, interdimensional travel was discovered on the source around the fifth calamity and it's not necessarily the only time it could have been, people from the source thought the sixth calamity could have been the last because it completed that cycle of elements, and we learned in Shadowbringers that the source's understanding of the elements isn't necessarily complete or accurate. I think that provides the potential for a villain faction from the source that wants the calamities to continue for their own reasons separate from the Ascians.

At the same time, we've also learned that time dilation can result in reflections that have capabilities far beyond what is possible for the source right now which is only reinforced by part of the defences against the Alexandrians being derived from G'raha's time on the First. The technology that allowed Alexandria to fuse with the source was originally from the source, then taken to a world where time is faster and developed much further due to need. If you take that concept and expand on it, it's not too difficult to see how an interdimensional faction could utilise time dilation to more deliberately develop things and enact plans. Similarly, if travel between shards could become more common that sets up the potential for more conflict with the remaining shards. Can't imagine that they'd be too pleased to hear about what a rejoining would mean for them.

[Ilenya]

I don't think that's the safer assumption because of Shadowbringers and the elemental chart.

The first six calamities follow the generative elemental cycle which works clockwise around the wheel. Then we have the "aspected" calamities of Darkness and Light. The elemental chart also contains the Conquests (Earth, Water, Lightning) and Submissions (Fire, Ice, Wind) as well as the Solar(Fire and Earth), Lunar(Water and Wind), and Celestial(Lightning and Ice) pairings, assuming the Astro cards are correct and the chart has Lunar and Solar pairings reversed. If each of those is a potential calamity that's a perfect thirteen unique calamities represented on the elemental chart.

I have accidentally lost this post more times than I care to admit.

I just have to disagree with the idea that the Ascians weren't working on multiple shards at once, even if only one could be rejoined at a time, entirely because of Shadowbringers and learning how the Flood of Light started. We know they were preparing the First for the Rejoining, and the plan until Ardbert ruined it was to have him kill Shadowkeeper to leave the First on the edge, ready to be pushed into Rejoining without actually hitting that point.

While I could be wrong, I just don't think there weren't other plans on other shards in motion, especially since the Ascians were generally working in pairs after the Flood of Darkness. Pushing Sphene's shard towards...I guess Celestial? would be part of it, though I'm not sure if the Lindblum superweapon messed up the balance a bit, it did *not* appear to make a Flood, at least to my understanding. As far as we knew, the world was very Lightning Aspected and nothing more.

I'm wondering how the Solar/Lunar/Celestial Calamities would even work, now that I've been made aware they were a thing.

[Sairys]

I have accidentally lost this post more times than I care to admit.

I just have to disagree with the idea that the Ascians weren't working on multiple shards at once, even if only one could be rejoined at a time, entirely because of Shadowbringers and learning how the Flood of Light started...

Hm, but...

Shadowbringers is why I disagree actually, because the time dilation was a plot point. It was brought up to explain why the various Scions had had a lot more time on the First relative to how long they'd been unconscious on the Source. At one point an hour in the Source meant a year in the First, that could vary and there could have been more moving parts to the calamity, but if the Calamity just needed Ardbert to complete his quest, Loghrif and Mitron may have completed their work within a decade or two. With time dilation, it's possible that may not have even taken a full day on the source. Given there are five years between the seventh calamity and the start of ARR, it's possible that's anywhere from days, to years, to decades, to centuries on the First.

We don't know for certain that the conquests, submissions, solar, lunar, and celestial groupings from the element chart could be valid for a calamity, but the math does kinda math cause that'd be thirteen unique calamities. I feel like the 7.x MSQ is going to start asking these questions about what shard Alexandria came from, was the lightning the work of the ascians, etc. Then we'll start to get answers and I just wouldn't be surprised if one of those was a repeat calamity doesn't make sense for x reason.

Maybe it's a bit meta, but I think also part of it for me is considering that the writers probably want to start setting up the villains of the next saga and the Ascians feel like they're mostly wrapped up with the end of the Hydaelyn-Zodiark saga? But this could be an interesting way to play with and subvert expectations, we know the Ascians operate by influencing people on the shards and source to do things that will trigger the right Calamity like what happened on the Thirteenth, which makes it plausible for others to cause them. A reveal over the coming patches that says it wasn't them leads to intrigue and questioning.

I guess another thing, that question of a Solar/Lunar/Celestial Calamity could work made me wonder if maybe the ones we've seen so far are easier in some way cause they're one element or aspect. The element cycle followed by Darkness then Light kinda looks like balancing the calamities, kinda like balancing the elements in the Eden raid series. Which is also another... reflections lore thing that links back to Shadowbringers

[Ilenya]

Hm, but...

Shadowbringers is why I disagree actually, because the time dilation was a plot point. It was brought up to explain why the various Scions had had a lot more time on the First relative to how long they'd been unconscious on the Source. At one point an hour in the Source meant a year in the First, that could vary and there could have been more moving parts to the calamity, but if the Calamity just needed Ardbert to complete his quest, Loghrif and Mitron may have completed their work within a decade or two. With time dilation, it's possible that may not have even taken a full day on the source. Given there are five years between the seventh calamity and the start of ARR, it's possible that's anywhere from days, to years, to decades, to centuries on the First.

I'm strongly going off memory, but

Ardbert completing his quest was *not* supposed to trigger the Rejoining. It was supposed to set things up for it. I'm trying to track down the info, but I'm honestly unsure when exactly it came up. If I can find it one way or another, I'll be sure to post it.

I don't expect there to actually be more Ascians showing up at this point, not really. I'd love to learn more about the mechanics of a proper Rejoining from the Shard side, but I imagine we're really not going to get that without an Ascian showing up, even if it's just for a loredump.

[Sairys]

I'm strongly going off memory, but

Ardbert completing his quest was *not* supposed to trigger the Rejoining. It was supposed to set things up for it. I'm trying to track down the info, but I'm honestly unsure when exactly it came up. If I can find it one way or another, I'll be sure to post it.

I don't expect there to actually be more Ascians showing up at this point, not really. I'd love to learn more about the mechanics of a proper Rejoining from the Shard side, but I imagine we're really not going to get that without an Ascian showing up, even if it's just for a loredump.

I'm not sure it changes it?

It just being the setup still goes against the idea of prepping before the preceding rejoining for me.

From what I've found, the "plan" was for Ardbert's party to defeat Cylva which would bring the First to the edge but not too far, when then they ended up defeating the Ascians it triggered the flood which shows how quickly a calamity could be triggered with the right circumstances and a case where the people of a shard triggered one "against the plan". That happened around the time of Heavensward. Elidibus was starting up production of Black Rose around the same time that the Scions were being summoned to the first which is when we were also told the time dilation was close to a year per hour on the source. It would have given Loghrif and Mitron, decades if not centuries to push the first over the edge even if they started when the production of Black Rose resumed, plus Elidibus could maintain control over when the Black Rose was used if there was a need to buy time. It also shows why prepping early could present such a risk to the Ascians, relative to source time what happened would have gotten out of control pretty quickly and given the Ascians very little time to prep a calamity on the source, Minfilia is the one that stopped the flood it seems like without that it would have been another failed rejoining.

I'm kinda hoping we might get more info about the rejoining mechanics if the Scions investigate Alexandria's situation. Kinda the same as how the Thirteenth provides understanding about what doesn't work.

I do suspect we might also learn that the time dilation varies. The First's rate would imply the flood of light happened potentially centuries ago for the First. With Alexandria, time was a bit slower given it's only decades to a few days rather than like... over seventy years for the First, but Krile is twenty-two and that could easily mean her parents died tens of thousands of years ago if the dilation is constant.