Quote Originally Posted by DrForester View Post
I really think the only reason they're being cagey about the date is what happened with Endwalker.
Well yes, that is what they said and nobody is disputing that. But they said they have a date in mind that they are working towards, even if they aren't sure they can achieve that date. What we've been doing is guessing what that date is.

History just tells us they like to aim for June if it's possible, although sometimes this is achieved by putting a lot of pressure on the developers (especially in Shadowbringers). We know they don't want to put as much pressure on them anymore because that was the reason patch cycle durations increased, but how can they resist their historic, favorite month?

Quote Originally Posted by Rehayem View Post
6.58 is coming in March, so we can assume DT will come out around July/August if they follow their 4 month patch cycle.
I don't think you understand what the 4 month patch cycle means. When we say 4 month patch cycle, we mean the distance between major patches ie. 6.1 and 6.2. We do not mean the distance between minor and major patch ie. 6.15 and 6.2.

So the 4 month cycle would be on the basis of the distance between 6.5 and 7.0, but there is a bit of a difference for expansion releases, where they want to drag it out for longer, so it's more like a distance of 4 months between 6.55 (part 2 of the MSQ) and expansion release.

But overall, there is not much consistency between final patches and expansion release in history. Just that there is a lot longer than between other major patches.
  • 2.5-3.0: 5 months
  • 3.5-4.0: 5 months
  • 4.5-5.0: 5 months and 20 days
  • 5.5-6.0: 8 months
  • 6.5-7.0: so far been 4 months and 11 days
If we do final patch distance to expansion.
  • 2.57-3.0: 1 month
  • 3.57-4.0: 2 months
  • 4.58-5.0: 1 month and 13 days
  • 5.58-6.0: 5 months and 18 days
  • 6.57-7.0: so far been 0 days
So it looks like the only precedent for taking longer than 5 months between the last major patch (.5) and expansion release is Endwalker. But we know they have increased their breaks and holidays and that there is a summer release. So this is obviously going to be longer than the 5 months of the past. But history is still relevant here.