Garlemald's situation. (Spoilers 6.55)

[Cleretic]

In summary, I argue that it is likely better to treat "Populares" and "Optimates" as merely labels, in the context of FFXIV, without going into the historical definitions of the terms. Replace them with "Politics A" and "Politics B", and it would be just as informative.

We also have something of a problem of limited perspectives. While we do know of the existence of the Populares and Optimates from multiple sources, our viewpoint of what the Populares want, think and believe is just Maxima. I hardly think Maxima is lying to us, but he only exists in very limited contexts, mostly relating to how the Garleans look at military and existential threats. And himself, is only one person who's unlikely to be completely, 100% reflective of the 'party line'. FFXIV has played with intra-party divides and their clashes with personal interests before with the Monetarists, so it's a fair assumption that the Populares were probably more complex than just talking to Maxima would have us believe.

Granted, a bunch of that doesn't matter, and probably reflect on things that we as players don't care about, like transport or healthcare. Maybe the Populares were actually way more conservative about, like, energy policy; we don't know, and probably never will, because it doesn't change one thing about the play experience.

[YianKutku]

We also have something of a problem of limited perspectives. While we do know of the existence of the Populares and Optimates from multiple sources, our viewpoint of what the Populares want, think and believe is just Maxima. I hardly think Maxima is lying to us, but he only exists in very limited contexts, mostly relating to how the Garleans look at military and existential threats. And himself, is only one person who's unlikely to be completely, 100% reflective of the 'party line'. FFXIV has played with intra-party divides and their clashes with personal interests before with the Monetarists, so it's a fair assumption that the Populares were probably more complex than just talking to Maxima would have us believe.

Granted, a bunch of that doesn't matter, and probably reflect on things that we as players don't care about, like transport or healthcare. Maybe the Populares were actually way more conservative about, like, energy policy; we don't know, and probably never will, because it doesn't change one thing about the play experience.

We also know, from 4.x dialogue, that the Populares did not represent every citizen of Garlemald who might share their views on opposing imperialism. Specifically, Cid had no idea about the existence of the Populares, while the Populares held Cid as the finest example of a principled objector who acted upon their conscience rather than submit to authority. Hence my belief that the Populares consisted of the "political alignment" definition at most. There might be others who shared the same views, whether in part or in whole, but they might not have wanted (or been able) to associate themselves explicitly with the Populares movement.

Still, you are correct that we only know about the Populares via Maxima, and also implicitly from the lack of corrections or comments from others who might have information on the workings of Garlean politics. For example, Thancred and Riol, as well as the collective group of Doman infiltrators to Garlemald. In fact, we first heard about the Populares in the first place via Asahi, and we only know Asahi wasn't lying outright due to Maxima not contradicting him even after Asahi's demise. And all we know about the Populares from these sources are "common people" and "opposed to war". Of the Optimates we know even less, apart from their opposition to the Populares.

It's one of the aspects of Garlemald that got sidetracked by the events of 5.x, viz the Garlemald civil war. I've heard this plot issue described as "Squid on the Mantelpiece": it's like the proverbial Chekov's Gun, but events become so large and drastic that all the subtle plot foreshadowing and setup ceases to be relevant. To use an example from Star Wars Knights Of The Old Republic, there was all the setup about gang relations and underworld espionage on Taris, and then none of it mattered after Act 1. In FFXIV, we never had the chance to explore the intricate politics of Garlemald, because in 5.0 we had to go to the First, especially since we specifically were told in 4.5 that none of it matters. Black Rose, introduced in 4.0, was basically the Star Destroyer orbiting Taris: the plot device already present that would make all the plot setup irrelevant once used.

So by the time we entered Garlemald, or had a chance of entering Garlemald that would not mean Black Rose being used on us (as per the Eighth Calamity timeline), the Populares and Optimates factions have become irrelevant. There might have been new factions that shared some values with one or the other, eg "cooperate with the international community" vs "build back up to subjugate", but I don't think they would even count as direct successors to the Populares and Optimates as political alignments.

EDIT: I just thought of a much closer comparison: the political conflict between the Monetarists and Royalists of Ul'dah, at the time of Endwalker. A serious dispute that formed the basis of several important plot points in ARR and Heavensward, but by the time of Endwalker (or even Shadowbringers) it's kind of minor and irrelevant, compared to the Final Days.

[Cleretic]

EDIT: I just thought of a much closer comparison: the political conflict between the Monetarists and Royalists of Ul'dah, at the time of Endwalker. A serious dispute that formed the basis of several important plot points in ARR and Heavensward, but by the time of Endwalker (or even Shadowbringers) it's kind of minor and irrelevant, compared to the Final Days.

An example that I'd point out is the only 'political party' that actually got proper spotlight in Endwalker (and the one I'm most confident is actually a political party): The Bibliothecs, in Sharlayan. Out of all known political groups they're probably the one with the most cohesive known platform, as well as debatably the one we can most quantify in terms of members and influence if we're really clever about political analysis. And their place as basically Astrologian's antagonist gives us a decent window into how they work.

But even though they're around, named and even seen in Endwalker, they don't actually get a whole lot of spotlight. Because ultimately, the level that political parties/movements mostly work on just don't really exist for a story like the one we're playing. Our main area is basically international relations, so we know how each nations' political forces operate there as well as a couple region-specific issues, but everything else just doesn't really matter to us. I'd argue that it never could've; even a theoretical version of 5.0/6.0 that focused much more on Garlemald wouldn't have done much more with them.

I hate that we spend so little of the Garlemald content talking about the incidentally-liberated slaves down in the oil fields, but I also don't think the story ever actually had much scope to talk about them.

[Denishia]

I hate that we spend so little of the Garlemald content talking about the incidentally-liberated slaves down in the oil fields, but I also don't think the story ever actually had much scope to talk about them.

:laughs: I admit I'm particularly bitter about them not only because they're more sympathetic to me, that I'm more interested in the vassal states and former colonies of Garlemald than Garlemald proper (and of Garlemald itself, the culture and history of the Republic Era), but because of where I live, having the fantasy oil/natural gas refinery equivalent be regulated to a single side-quest series about getting the plant back online without more exploration of daily life and health impacts or its influence on political policy was deeply disappointing. Nor did they have any lines during the meeting with Vrtra to outline Garlemald's future. But that comes with living at one end of a port city's Refinery Row where there is more than twenty plants or installations of various sizes and output that I must drive past before reaching downtown. Outsized impact and all that. I'm sure if one of the subplots in Dawntrail is about environmental impacts of cerulean drilling, people will complain about yet another rehash of VII's Shinra. But I hope that if/when they do will also be when the story loops back to pull Jareck and the others of Tapper's Den back into the narrative. A single quest line objective where we ask for their opinions when learning about North Tural probably.

[MikkoAkure]

I'm sure if one of the subplots in Dawntrail is about environmental impacts of cerulean drilling, people will complain about yet another rehash of VII's Shinra. But I hope that if/when they do will also be when the story loops back to pull Jareck and the others of Tapper's Den back into the narrative. A single quest line objective where we ask for their opinions when learning about North Tural probably.

SE has had the chance to make that kind of subplot about ceruleum's possible environmental impact for over a decade because Ul'dah has been drilling for it in their own backyard since 1.0.

It would be awkward if it suddenly becomes a problem when we already have had a zone completely devoted to ceruleum since ARR and seen the derricks since 1.0. It would be nice if they bring that stuff back to ARR zones and give us some Duskwight lore while they're at it since they don't exist at all outside ARR, but after giving us flying there I feel like they might be done.

[Cleretic]

SE has had the chance to make that kind of subplot about ceruleum's possible environmental impact for over a decade because Ul'dah has been drilling for it in their own backyard since 1.0.

It would be awkward if it suddenly becomes a problem when we already have had a zone completely devoted to ceruleum since ARR and seen the derricks since 1.0. It would be nice if they bring that stuff back to ARR zones and give us some Duskwight lore while they're at it since they don't exist at all outside ARR, but after giving us flying there I feel like they might be done.

While I don't think that's what they're doing for exactly the reason you say, I do think you could pitch doing an environmantal impact angle for Shaaloani in a way that wouldn't bring in a 'hey wait a minute' response around the other ceruleum operations.

Specifically, the fact both of the ceruleum drilling operations we've been to are in places that are pretty dead. While there are lively deserts and lively parts of the Thanalan, Northern Thanalan isn't one of them, and Garlemald is pretty famously full of nothing but ice and hatred of all living things. If it turns out that ceruleum drilling blights the soil or something, it would make sense why that only comes up in Shaaloani, a place with light but healthy vegetation, but never before then.

[Heroman3003]

While I don't think that's what they're doing for exactly the reason you say, I do think you could pitch doing an environmantal impact angle for Shaaloani in a way that wouldn't bring in a 'hey wait a minute' response around the other ceruleum operations.

Specifically, the fact both of the ceruleum drilling operations we've been to are in places that are pretty dead. While there are lively deserts and lively parts of the Thanalan, Northern Thanalan isn't one of them, and Garlemald is pretty famously full of nothing but ice and hatred of all living things. If it turns out that ceruleum drilling blights the soil or something, it would make sense why that only comes up in Shaaloani, a place with light but healthy vegetation, but never before then.

Well, big part of Garlean lore was that the land was already like that when they first arrived and had to survive off of it, and discovery of ceruleum and magitek is what basically turned things around. So it's definitely not ceruleum that's at fault for Garlemald's barren nature

[YianKutku]

I'm sure if one of the subplots in Dawntrail is about environmental impacts of cerulean drilling, people will complain about yet another rehash of VII's Shinra.

It's especially ironic given how FFVII Advent Children has Barret, the claimed leader of an ecoterrorist group, become an oil prospector. This is after a career as a coal miner, which is presented as somehow the "good, traditional option" compared to Mako as a fuel source.

In any case, one issue with going deep into the impacts of ceruleum extraction is having to reconcile it with what we've already seen in FFXIV, except in side content: the Whalaqee and Blue Magic questlines has plenty about it in the 1-50 content, along with a further mention in 6.55 with that book likely authored by Martyn.

There, we've already helped convince an industrial magnate to respect the cultural impacts of ceruleum extraction, and the solution was to get a Whalaqee representative to help look for ceruleum deposits that aren't claimed by anyone, rather than not extract ceruleum at all. So I suspect the message here is that ceruleum extraction is, at worst, a necessary evil, and thus must be done with thought and respect towards all potential consequences.

Which might result in an additive (and plausible, in my opinion) retcon about the relative barrenness and odd colouration of Northern Thanalan, stating that the Ul'dah mining interests were extracting ceruleum with a focus on quantity of output and cost-effectiveness, rather than environmental impacts. There may be a hypothetical way to extract ceruleum that isn't so damaging to the environment, but it's more expensive or more troublesome, so it's our job (or rather, the job of the diplomats on our team, like Nanamo or Alphinaud) to convince everyone that it's worth it.

It might even be the case that ceruleum extraction is only detrimental to the surroundings when done in the quantities required now, so a part of it might be weaning societies off ceruleum, reducing demand.

[Denishia]

It's especially ironic given how FFVII Advent Children has Barret, the claimed leader of an ecoterrorist group, become an oil prospector. This is after a career as a coal miner, which is presented as somehow the "good, traditional option" compared to Mako as a fuel source.

In any case, one issue with going deep into the impacts of ceruleum extraction is having to reconcile it with what we've already seen in FFXIV, except in side content: the Whalaqee and Blue Magic questlines has plenty about it in the 1-50 content, along with a further mention in 6.55 with that book likely authored by Martyn.

There, we've already helped convince an industrial magnate to respect the cultural impacts of ceruleum extraction, and the solution was to get a Whalaqee representative to help look for ceruleum deposits that aren't claimed by anyone, rather than not extract ceruleum at all. So I suspect the message here is that ceruleum extraction is, at worst, a necessary evil, and thus must be done with thought and respect towards all potential consequences.

Which might result in an additive (and plausible, in my opinion) retcon about the relative barrenness and odd colouration of Northern Thanalan, stating that the Ul'dah mining interests were extracting ceruleum with a focus on quantity of output and cost-effectiveness, rather than environmental impacts. There may be a hypothetical way to extract ceruleum that isn't so damaging to the environment, but it's more expensive or more troublesome, so it's our job (or rather, the job of the diplomats on our team, like Nanamo or Alphinaud) to convince everyone that it's worth it.

It might even be the case that ceruleum extraction is only detrimental to the surroundings when done in the quantities required now, so a part of it might be weaning societies off ceruleum, reducing demand.

The possible nod to VII’s Mako plants and in particular the storylines involving Correl is why I’m predicting an NPC named Dyne or Myrna and maybe an expy of Marlene. One where the Barret connection is made obliquely.

The conflict of Shaalonai being hinted to be on how fully and expansive one faction wants to embrace technology and mining versus not makes your scenario extremely likely.

And there’s probably a “Balrog” under all the ceruleum that the drilling is going to awaken that we get to fight as a dungeon boss.

[MikkoAkure]

It might even be the case that ceruleum extraction is only detrimental to the surroundings when done in the quantities required now, so a part of it might be weaning societies off ceruleum, reducing demand.

Northern Thanalan looked fine in 1.0 and Garlemald doesn't have the blue haze effect modern Northern Thanalan has despite likely drilling for ceruleum in greater quantities.

Though Northern Thanalan now has 2 factions drilling in the same spot and 1 being an invading force probably doesn't care for any potential repercussions as much as the other.

And there’s probably a “Balrog” under all the ceruleum that the drilling is going to awaken that we get to fight as a dungeon boss.

This feels like it has a lot of crossover with Cutter's Cry, which ended in a cavern full of ceruleum and a giant monster at the end of it.

But at this point I feel like there's not much left that hasn't been done already.