Revelations from JP Fan Fest (January 2024)

[Cleretic]

I can see a plausible way for us to "break off from known factions", in that the Scions have generally (I want to say always, but I'm sure someone will bring up some stuff I've forgotten) followed what the "common people" want, after calm and reasoned consideration (eg not bloodthirsty mobs calling for death to all dragons).

That 'after consideration' is a fairly big asterisk, because it generally turns this read into 'they do what the common people want unless the common people are wrong'. But you are mostly right, the exceptions so far have been:

-Ishgard (as you mentioned)
-Eulmore (Scions basically left them alone until Vauthry forced their hand)
-Garlemald (Complicated, but they largely abide by Garlemald's wish to be left alone outside of Tower of Babil stuff)

However, I'll point out that the situation we're looking at is, from all the evidence we have, how Tural selects its leader. If so, we're effectively looking at an entire expansion of the Nadaam. I know people who are already a bit shifty on what we did there since our influence was basically the combat-trial equivalent of election tampering, but us throwing in with a particular side, especially on request, would at least be within their society's accepted boundaries. Deciding to completely overturn the whole process because we've decided that Everyone Is Bad Actually? Yeah, that's probably a bad look.

Especially because I refuse to imagine Wuk Lamat ever being wrong

[Heroman3003]

-Ishgard (as you mentioned)

With Ishgard it wasn't even Scions as a whole, it was basically us accompanying and being connective tissue between Estinien and Ysayle as the two uncover the truth behind the war; and we do help the 'wish of common people' by killing Nidhogg the first time. The revolution happens as result of us revealing the truth and scions were just choosing to support people trying to fix the mistakes of the past, rather than those trying to capitalize off of them to keep eternal war going.

I know people who are already a bit shifty on what we did there since our influence was basically the combat-trial equivalent of election tampering, but us throwing in with a particular side, especially on request, would at least be within their society's accepted boundaries. Deciding to completely overturn the whole process because we've decided that Everyone Is Bad Actually? Yeah, that's probably a bad look.

Isn't there some lore revealed in Wanderer's Palace (Hard) that basically tells us that proving a good leader by winning by actually any means necessary is THE way, and if the way is by finding good allies it'd be just as valid as being the strongest? Especially since it seems, both 'sides' are requesting aid of the specific ex-scions as form of official hiring, rather than scions coming around and going "hey this guy seems good, I'll support em".

[T-rexpectation]

There’s also the fact that the Xaela were EXTREMELY principled about the Nadaam. I suspect that in most real life cases, the biggest tribes would have just made up rules about outsiders on the spot when it seemed they might have an impact. We don’t yet know what the people of Tural will feel about the succession process as we get involved.

[Cleretic]

Isn't there some lore revealed in Wanderer's Palace (Hard) that basically tells us that proving a good leader by winning by actually any means necessary is THE way, and if the way is by finding good allies it'd be just as valid as being the strongest? Especially since it seems, both 'sides' are requesting aid of the specific ex-scions as form of official hiring, rather than scions coming around and going "hey this guy seems good, I'll support em".

There is, but it's all kinda vague and hard to read anything into. Especially given it's so old that there's a good chance a bunch of it could get quietly reframed and recontextualized anyway.

(I'm not gonna say retconned, I know how the writers write and they'll write something that makes perfect sense with it, it's just not likely to be exactly what you'll expect.)

There’s also the fact that the Xaela were EXTREMELY principled about the Nadaam. I suspect that in most real life cases, the biggest tribes would have just made up rules about outsiders on the spot when it seemed they might have an impact. We don’t yet know what the people of Tural will feel about the succession process as we get involved.

I feel like the trick with the Nadaam there was that the people who gave the okay were... let's be honest, pretty self-important and stupid. I think if Magnai ever saw us as a legitimate threat he would've stopped us getting involved,but he was never going to see us as that.

Meanwhile, at least two people in Tural know the people they're calling in are the real deal; probably three, but we don't have proof yet that the mysterious 'client' isn't just Wuk Lamatt or Galool Ja Ja again.

[YianKutku]

However, I'll point out that the situation we're looking at is, from all the evidence we have, how Tural selects its leader. If so, we're effectively looking at an entire expansion of the Nadaam. I know people who are already a bit shifty on what we did there since our influence was basically the combat-trial equivalent of election tampering, but us throwing in with a particular side, especially on request, would at least be within their society's accepted boundaries. Deciding to completely overturn the whole process because we've decided that Everyone Is Bad Actually? Yeah, that's probably a bad look.

Personally I saw what happened in the Nadaam in Stormblood as the equivalent of signing on contractors: nobody involved in the Nadaam had any questions or queries about "outsiders" being involved in their leadership ritual. Sadu was far more concerned with whether we were representing the Oronir, and when we said we were representing the Mol, she just laughed it off and considered us irrelevant.

It's similar to Siegfried in the Masked Carnivale: he's not using Blue Magic, and is instead completely decked out in magitek armaments, but it's still not against the rules.

For the succession contest in Tulliyolal, I am certain the Scions will at least look into whether we're allowed to help one faction or another. My hypothetical for "actually all the factions are bad" is based on the usual story concept of aristocratic maneuverings causing nothing but suffering for the common people, rather than going in and declaring the locals cannot rule themselves. I'm thinking along the lines of all the factions going "we've decided to use Primals to fight for us, regardless of tempering risk". I should mention I think the likelihood is very low, but it was entirely speculation on the sort of circumstance that would lead the Scions to truly interfere with the succession contest beyond merely helping the factions.