LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[TomsYoungerBro]

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

[Volgia]

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

I'm biased because there's A LOT I dislike about Endwalker and it's gutted content and that being the case I can look at numbers going down and say yeah see, objectively it's in decline.

But moving beyond my biases, has FF14 lost social impact within live service games and MMOs? Have a massive amount of players lost interest in playing Dawntrail? Has the game faded out of the gaming community consciousness? Like to me, the answer is no. Cuz people who hate, are ambivalent or are okay with Endwalker are all waiting expectantly to see what Dawntrail will do.

[Jeeqbit]

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

It doesn't. The original image is saying that specifically achievement hunters (people who enable achievements, which are the hardcore players) are quitting. There is no guarantee that the quitting is permanent. Either way, according to Lucky Bancho, they just get replaced by new and returning players because the overall active player estimate has remained stable throughout the entirety of Endwalker.

The revenue falling in Q2 doesn't mean anything other than that there are patch lulls due to how a lot of content can be done fairly quickly and how the population can reduce the further it gets from an expansion release. It could back up some sort of decline if it were happening over a long period of time, but a single Quarter means nothing really.

[Turtledeluxe]

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

I'm biased because there's A LOT I dislike about Endwalker and it's gutted content and that being the case I can look at numbers going down and say yeah see, objectively it's in decline.

But moving beyond my biases, has FF14 lost social impact within live service games and MMOs? Have a massive amount of players lost interest in playing Dawntrail? Has the game faded out of the gaming community consciousness? Like to me, the answer is no. Cuz people who hate, are ambivalent or are okay with Endwalker are all waiting expectantly to see what Dawntrail will do.

For a long time Destiny 2 was touted as one of the OG successful live service games and it seemed like nothing would take it down. Then the Lightfall expansion happened, revenue dipped 45% and Bungie laid off 100+ people including their logo designer and composer. A lot can change over one or two years. Even if DawnTrail inevitably sees a pop, I would say there's growing negative sentiment brewing already and once people get through MSQ it's just a question of whether those players end up back in a state of discontent. That is what has killed D2-- the assumption that the whales would just always be around to offset the critics. Well it turns out they aren't.

[Striker44]

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

Yeah, in other words comparing Q1 when a new patch released (6.4 in May) to Q2 when no new patch released. Gee, what a surprise that the numbers went up when a new patch came out and went down at the tail end of that patch (in other words, the cyclical nature that applies to virtually every MMO ever). It's amusing when people "lmao" while being oblivious to how they sound.

[DPZ2]

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

Too bad that Square Enix is now in FY2024, not FY2023. FY2023 ended in March of this year. Year-over-year the numbers are down about 18% for the first half of FY2024. Not surprising, since they've put off the next expansion by about six months.

Endwalker was released in FY2022, calendar year was 2021, but financial reports don't work that way.