So I found a bit of a happy medium between macro and manual crafting that has me getting mostly 2nd tier result with more 3rd tier than 1st tier. On average, I'm needing about 28 select materials per tool.

TLDR;
Macro up until the "finisher" when you'd use Innovation->(some other stuff)->Great Strides-> Byregots. Then bait for Good Omen by burning your extra CP/durability.

Slightly more detail:
When you are up to what your macro would assume is your last Innovation, look at your CP/Durability. If you had any luck with Pliants and Sturdies and Malleables, you likely will either have extra steps to use (from having more durability) and/or the ability to use a few more touches. All of this adds not only to your quality but also to the odds that you'll see a Good Omen while Innovation is up. Use Great Strides during Good Omen and enjoy getting to 3rd tier more often with a "mostly macro'd" rotation.

Another thing is... if you are going to try and utilize the extra CP... then actually get the extra CP. Take, for example, the rotation listed above for the last tool. Add Tricks of the Trade (ToT) in certain steps:

MM
ToT
Manipulation
WN2
Veneration
GNDWx2
Final Appraisal (in case a Malleable has shown up)
GNDWx2
Preparatory Touch
Basic Touch
Standard Touch
ToT
Manipulation
ToT
Innovation
Basic Touch
Standard Touch
Advanced Touch
Prudent Touch
Prudent Touch
ToT
--- Innovation would be here ---
The idea is to only use those Goods for ToT on a step when your macro would only be using a buff such as Manipulation, Innovation, etc. So nothing is "lost." Goods that land on touches is great.

When I do that macro with crafting stats roughly at 4100/4100/716 with food, at the bare minimum, I get to the end of that macro with 114 CP, effectively 30 durability and 640 progress short.

With 110 CP, I'm going to use Innovation (18) Basic Touch (18), Great Strides (32), and Byregot's (24) - leaving 18 for Prudent Synthesis and Basic Synthesis. That leaves me with only 4CP to spare.

If I get to 18 CP extra, I can insert another Basic Touch in there. If I get to 36 CP extra, that's two Basic Touches in there. If I get to 68 CP extra (which is quite possible with Pliants and ToT usage... I wind up using a Basic Touch before using Innovation. Then Basic Touch, Trained Finesse (since I don't have durability to spare).

There's the other possibility that you only need 1 Basic Synthesis to finish (any Malleable in the Groundwork steps results in that). If that's the case, you can even burn that extra durability on a Hasty Touch if you don't have any CP to spare.

Another thing that I found very handy to do:

If you are on a specialist, you can use some Careful Observations to bait a Good/Good Omen. Depending on how many steps you have left of Innovation/Great Strides, you could also burn CP on Observe to try and get there.