IGN Brazil Asked Yoshida about 2 min meta

[Turtledeluxe]

Can I get a source of the drop in subs?

Generally revenue declining and data indicating players are not active combine to mean subscriptions are down. Unless you want to say the MMO part of SE is down due to people not spending in the shop which is an lol argument you can have, I don't really care. The truth is no you won't see a source because even if SE straight up said it you'd find some excuse.

Additionally you can other insights such as Steam, Twitch to see engagement is down. Some part of this is post pandemic effect but the point is that EW is failing to keep people.engaged.

[Volgia]

Generally revenue declining and data indicating players are not active combine to mean subscriptions are down. Unless you want to say the MMO part of SE is down due to people not spending in the shop which is an lol argument you can have, I don't really care. The truth is no you won't see a source because even if SE straight up said it you'd find some excuse.

Additionally you can other insights such as Steam, Twitch to see engagement is down. Some part of this is post pandemic effect but the point is that EW is failing to keep people.engaged.

So you're saying that because you feel it's dying, then it's dying. Like what metric are you trying to use? I don't play on Steam, and twitch doesn't feel like a good metric to see if people are playing or not. Like I agree that this expansion feels less engaging the ShB and SB, but I don't see the evidence of it dying.

[Turtledeluxe]

So you're saying that because you feel it's dying, then it's dying. Like what metric are you trying to use? I don't play on Steam, and twitch doesn't feel like a good metric to see if people are playing or not. Like I agree that this expansion feels less engaging the ShB and SB, but I don't see the evidence of it dying.

Yes because revenue being down and player activity being down are my feelings. Also I wasn't saying it's dying. I'm saying the state of jobs and combat are a contributing factor to disengaged and unsubbed players. If combat was actually satisfying, if leveling jobs wasn't mostly pointless, perhaps retention and interest could be higher despite EW mostly being solo and small party content for the majority of players. High end content players are never gonna leave because the game is what it is due to them and they're blind to casual content being dull. And what I mean is there is a certain player who will never enjoy casual content so they don't care what it feels like to play it.

[ZavosEsperian]

So you're saying that because you feel it's dying, then it's dying. Like what metric are you trying to use? I don't play on Steam, and twitch doesn't feel like a good metric to see if people are playing or not. Like I agree that this expansion feels less engaging the ShB and SB, but I don't see the evidence of it dying.

If you are trying to find an exact metric for something like this, it is near impossible to find data that is not without significant error as SE does not provide numbers related to active players, and even this can be a difficult metric to parse without error.

I would argue the game will likely not die come 7.0, it is just unlikely for this to happen then. That being said, the patch content in DT, based on what we are seeing from fanfests, would suggest it will be in a similar state as EW, and will result in a severe reduction of players should there not be anything worth engaging with other than Player-Generated Content. This argument will also be true during the lull in content that will span up until release, outside of crossover events that you can do in a short period of time.

For reference, Player-Generated Content is content where players are creating the content more than the devs, who basically lay a framework for the content. Things like RP (and its more adult variety), PvP content, and decorating housing and other, creative endeavors by the player. Someone who engages primarily with RP (particularly ERP) likely will say the game is not dying as they always have new content. Players who interact mainly with raid content will probably say the game is dying as the number of people raiding will go down over time, particularly since DTs release date is going to have the most recent raid content be stretching a length of time comparable to, and likely exceeding, the length SoO was in WoW.

Thus comes the current and future problem post-7.0, the game getting content like it has been will cause the game to slowly die over time. The only players left will likely be players who interact with other players for RP related reasons and not much else. Most players who want the other content will likely sub for a month and be able to do everything they want to do and then unsub for the remainder of the time.

[Volgia]

If you are trying to find an exact metric for something like this, it is near impossible to find data that is not without significant error as SE does not provide numbers related to active players, and even this can be a difficult metric to parse without error.

I would argue the game will likely not die come 7.0, it is just unlikely for this to happen then. That being said, the patch content in DT, based on what we are seeing from fanfests, would suggest it will be in a similar state as EW, and will result in a severe reduction of players should there not be anything worth engaging with other than Player-Generated Content. This argument will also be true during the lull in content that will span up until release, outside of crossover events that you can do in a short period of time.

For reference, Player-Generated Content is content where players are creating the content more than the devs, who basically lay a framework for the content. Things like RP (and its more adult variety), PvP content, and decorating housing and other, creative endeavors by the player. Someone who engages primarily with RP (particularly ERP) likely will say the game is not dying as they always have new content. Players who interact mainly with raid content will probably say the game is dying as the number of people raiding will go down over time, particularly since DTs release date is going to have the most recent raid content be stretching a length of time comparable to, and likely exceeding, the length SoO was in WoW.

Thus comes the current and future problem post-7.0, the game getting content like it has been will cause the game to slowly die over time. The only players left will likely be players who interact with other players for RP related reasons and not much else. Most players who want the other content will likely sub for a month and be able to do everything they want to do and then unsub for the remainder of the time.

So I agree with you that the game would die for me because if it's the same it wouldn't be engaging (I love the end-game raiding), but I haven't seen this massive drop in the playerbase. I've expressed my disappointment in whatever cut corners EW did and I got a LOT of pushback from people who are saying that actually these changes have been the best they've seen in their FF14 lives.

[Auryan]

-snip-

I suggest reading more articles to get a better view of the coming DT content. Coincidentally, I have this Famitsu article from a few months back where they were mentioning adding a new type of battle content and/or more exploratory content like Eureka and Bozja. It's in Japanese and the Google English translation is...rough, to say the least. Link: https://www.famitsu.com/news/202307/30311422.html

That alone is a huge and welcome change for the lack of exploratory content, 'cause in all seriousness, they are my favorite type of content in XIV and the absence this expansion is sorely felt. I'd trade all of the deep dungeons for more exploratory content.

Although nothing is confirmed yet and plans can change, but I'm optimistic and hopeful of the thought of more of these quirky and more experimental content (even if they don't land gracefully out of the gate).

And I see they're taking another stab at the island sanctuary-like content, but geared towards group play. This also feeds in to your comment about player-generated content. That sounds like a positive for this type content as I don't think they nailed what they were aiming for and hopefully this new direction can expand on the Island Sanctuary concept.

So, that's what has me really excited. On top of all the high quality core content of course.

[reginleif-]

I suggest reading more articles to get a better view of the coming DT content. Coincidentally, I have this Famitsu article from a few months back where they were mentioning adding a new type of battle content and/or more exploratory content like Eureka and Bozja. It's in Japanese and the Google English translation is...rough, to say the least. Link: https://www.famitsu.com/news/202307/30311422.html

This article has an English version :) The illustrations are different, but the text is the same: Naoki Yoshida Answers Questions From the Press at Fan Fest 2023

The article is long to scour, so I quote here the answer about new battle and exploratory content:
“Of course, we continue to discuss and ideate on different content that we’ve never done before in terms of battle content. In terms of large-scale combat situations like Bozja and Eureka, we still want to do things in that vein as well. So we’ll continue to come up with new challenges in that aspect.”

No promises to bring it in Dawntrail stated here, sadly.

[Arkdra]

Generally revenue declining and data indicating players are not active combine to mean subscriptions are down. Unless you want to say the MMO part of SE is down due to people not spending in the shop which is an lol argument you can have, I don't really care. The truth is no you won't see a source because even if SE straight up said it you'd find some excuse.

Additionally you can other insights such as Steam, Twitch to see engagement is down. Some part of this is post pandemic effect but the point is that EW is failing to keep people.engaged.

Not really, no. Like sure, revenue is down, that is not a surprise. It would be more surprising if it weren't. With the singular exception of WoW shitting the bed so hard it hemorrhaged players over here at the end of Shadowbringers, we are in the expansion patch period where people have quit and are waiting for the next expansion. You need to show not just that subs have dipped but that they've dipped significantly harder in proportion to any of the other expansions. Which, as best as we can tell from Lucky Bancho's survey a few months ago, is simply not the case.

ARR lost about 31% of it's playerbase when comparing the peak count versus the deepest valley.
HW lost approximately the same.
SB also lost approximately the same.
SHB lost 32% before the wow exodus occurred and boosted the numbers into the stratosphere. But you can't exactly expect your biggest competitor to fuck their expansion so hard that their biggest streamer quits and drags like 500k people into our loving embrace to be a regular occurrence.
EW as it currently stands has only lost 24% of it's subscribers. And that valley hit back in august 2022 and the sub numbers went UP after that, then dipped lightly and then began trending back up very slightly.

So no, using the best methodology we have, you cannot really sit here and be like GAME'S DYING without posting some comparable data to back it up. If anything EW is their most successful expansion when it comes to retention, so far. Well, retention not the best word necessarily, more accurate to say the best at maintaining it's sub count. Theres some interesting retention info in the reddit post I've linked below, but without similar data for the other expansions, nothing to draw from it other than it being of mild interest.

Although if I were a betting man, I would bet 20 bucks that by the time Dawntrail is set to come out we'll be back down to.... 31% of players lost. I may go a little further to 35% because the content drought is gonna be REAL after 6.55 in January. Hell, it may be real mid November. But "players quitting because there hasn't been new content in months" is an entirely different cause than... whatever you are trying to blame a nonexistent exodus on in this thread, presumably the 2 minute meta. Oh and homogenization? Forum classic.

Source: Active Players Chart (2014-2023) courtesy of /u/Darrcyphfeid: https://imgur.com/fHBrFWIm which I got from https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxivdiscus...3_139m_active/.

sidenote: shoutouts to patch 5.3, the GOAT patch that managed to top the shb expansion launch peak just slightly. What a legend.