LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Ivtrix]

They aren't. Never were, never will. Expect to see threads like this over and over again when it's support the narrative, or the source shunned when it against the narrative

We all know only SE holds the true statistics. If our source of metric is wrong, then there's no point in discussing it under false data.

If we happen to be right. then SE already knew about it. What and how they're going to act upon that data have been decided already.

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

[Valkyrie_Lenneth]

Except Endwalker didn't see growth. It's dropped all the way back to early Shadowbringer numbers, which pre-date Covid. And this is before what will be a near ten month long content lull. In layman's terms, Endwalker essentially spun its wheels and wasn't able to keep any of its massive surge of potential players. While yes, it's silly to assume those bloated numbers near the end of Shadowbringers were going to remain, it's equally silly to claim losing that same amount of players (be in WoW refugees or long time players losing interest) is just "normalizing".

That isn't to say the game is in some dire state like some are making it out to be. Just that it more or less stagnated.

Achievements are still above the q1 and q2 numbers during shadowbringers. It wasn't until covid where Shb numbers post expansion drop are higher (during the lull) than current lull numbers.



I'm comparing troughs here. Not peaks.

[Stormpeaks]

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

One can remember when I posted steamcharts as a sample too for the loss of players, weirdly enough the exact same people attacking this thread attacked me.

It's almost like they can't accept that FFXIV is in decline and that no, the game is not dying, but a lot of things are not ok right now.

"Only SE has data" is basically them trying to silence people because they know we'll never have full data, we can only have samples such as luckybancho or steam charts, and they go full blast in attacking those, they use that defense to try and force this toxic positivity that the game is in a good state and growing (as seen by a few people in this thread saying just that)

The reality is... it's not growing, but maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it is you'll eventually believe it, but its a delusion.

[Striker44]

Random ranting...

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

[Stormpeaks]

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

Case in point.

Thank you for proving my point.

[Renathras]

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

I mean...your post here........

EDIT:

One can remember when I posted steamcharts as a sample too for the loss of players, weirdly enough the exact same people attacking this thread attacked me.

To be fair, people like me presented detailed analysis for why those numbers weren't reliable and you attacked us and called us names instead, then held us to a wild standard that you weren't even holding yourself to.

The game seems to be growing apples-to-apples. You don't want that to be true for some reason, perhaps to justify your personal complaints and spur SE to act on them, but that is still the truth at the present time. As I told you before, the only way to know is wait for DT to hit and compare the numbers then, something you don't seem to want to do because it would interfere with doomposting and might prove you wrong. In fact, I fully suspect if they do prove you wrong, you won't admit to it and will continue holding the same view and looking for data to support it, but time will tell, I suppose.

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

Agreed.

Case in point.

Thank you for proving my point.

He didn't prove your point, he disproved your point.

It's also funny you basically say we can't really know, then state as a fact that the game is not growing, apparently not realizing those two positions are incompatible.

[Jojoya]

True. But such a decline like in EW was never observed.


Cheers

Yet it probably should have been expected considering the main story arc that has existed since 2.0 was concluded in 6.0 instead of being continued.

With respect to the achievement graph, we still need confirmation about what collection date(s) LB used for the 2nd QTR numbers. That would have a big effect on the number of players collecting new achievement completions because of when the patch dates landed.

What will people say next month when he posts the 3rd quarter numbers if the trend shifts back in the other direction and the bar is mostly red again?

It really is amazing how consistently Square Enix wil shoot themselves in the foot and then stare blankly, wondering how it all happened. Case in point, FFXVI didn't sell enough to offset their previous losses (Avengers and Forspoken). Almost like releasing it as a PS5 exclusive meant drastically limiting their sale potential, especially when a massive portion of FFXIV players who might be interested are on PS4 or PC. They're doing it again with Rebirth. So I'll expect to read another "SE is disappointed Rebirth didn't reach sales expectations" a few months later.

Tin foil hat theory: Sony is still interested in purchasing SE but doesn't like the current price. They're giving SE bad advice about releasing PS exclusives so sales of new titles are lower because of the lack of additional platforms. That worries investors so the stock price falls. Lower stock price means lower price for Sony when they reappear to make the attempt to purchase SE as a counter Microsoft's recent acquisitions.

I know how much people like to mock with "small indie company" but when you're comparing them against the giants like Sony and Microsoft, it's a lot closer to the truth for SE than some think.

[Jojoya]

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

Not lost players. Active characters who have achievements posted publicly (ie visible to other players on Lodestone) and had achievement completions in previous quarters but did not have new achievement completions registered for the reported quarter.

LB doesn't list newly inactive characters in the data he shares except for in a column on his census spreadsheet plus a brief mention in the blog he posts. I'd have to run the column titles through Google translate to figure out which columns are for the newly inactive characters, new characters and returning characters (characters that didn't have changes on Lodestone during the previous census period but had been active prior to that).

Also, he doesn't collect data on characters that are level 60 and below because he has no way to determine if the accounts are paid subscriptions or free trial. Once Stormblood become part of the free trial some time in 6.5, I'm certain he'll increase the character level floor to 71.

You are right I mis worded it, but the statement still stands this data is not perfect

True but it's as close to reliable as we're likely to get unless SE decides to start publishing numbers.

Cute catgirls and Victorias secret bunnies can only help them so far.

People want to play a game in a game. I know that sounds crazy.

We've got game play in the game and there are players doing it.

Someone no longer being interested in what game play exists does not indicate a lack of game in the game. It indicates a lack of interest by that individual.

Someone explain to me why these numbers (or graphs or whatever) are 'important'?

They're only important to people who decide to justify their opinion about a game based on how many people are playing it at a certain period in time.

Counterpoint to everyone saying "Wait until Dawntrail"

The goal of every expansion is to end up with more subs at the end of it than you began with. That is how you grow. Right now, if the Bancho survey is any indication, subs are lower than when Shadowbringer released.

That should be concerning for any MMO company. Ending up lower than 2 expansions ago, with a solid decline after a current expansion. It is generally expected, but not at this plummeting rate.

Something needs to change at CBU3 and FFXIV. Repeating the same content schedule (and making it take longer between each patch to boot) for 4 expansions simply isn't good enough anymore

Just as no king lives forever, no game increases the size of its active player base forever.

That is something everyone needs to come to terms with. Nothing is forever in the gaming industry.

MMO developers don't get concerned until they're not making a profit. I doubt FFXIV is close enough to that point yet to cause SE any alarm.

The chaos in the player numbers caused by COVID lockdowns and the WoW exodus means it's difficult to accurately judge what is happening in the player base.

Nothing is going to change with the game because a small vocal number of players insists that it is needed. It will change once the game gets close to the point it is no longer profitable. Will that be too late to react? Hard to say but I bet a lot of developers are watching what happens with Dragonflight closely. If nothing else, YoshiP has been pretty good about learning from WoW examples.

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

So are people who insist a game is dying just because it had a less successful second half of an expansion for a change.

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

The reality is we can't be certain of anything since SE doesn't provide concrete numbers for anyone to work with.

It also shouldn't matter whether the game is growing or declining. All that should matter is whether you personally are having fun.

I'm having fun. I intend to keep playing the game. If I stop having fun, I'll stop playing it and either start playing the other games I'm currently into more often or go looking for a new game to enjoy.

If someone is no longer having fun in FFXIV, it's up to them to figure out why they're still here instead of playing something else.

Doomcrying never leads to a game being changed. A lack of paying players does.

[Stormpeaks]

So are people who insist a game is dying just because it had a less successful second half of an expansion for a change.

Literally no one said the game is dying.

Decline =/ game dying

I dare you to find in this thread a single person who said the game is dead or dying, I'll wait.

[Reap00]

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

His point is valid regardless if you agree or not. I do agree with your sentiment though and think it applies perfectly to you.