LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Fyrebrand]

If I'm understanding the graph correctly, this decline into a new "low point" for Endwalker is actually about the same numbers we had at the launch of Shadowbringers -- which at the time would have been considered an all-time new record for the game by quite a margin. In other words, the numbers we once expected of the hype driven by a new expansion release are now the numbers we get during the "worst" of patch content lull. To me, this seems to indicate a trend of upward momentum, as we will get more new and returning players as Dawntrail draws closer, not to mention the Xbox version.

Time will tell if we can get back up to the extreme peak set at the start of Endwalker, but I would also argue that was a rather exceptional moment in the game's history. We had covid, we had a rather major "WoW exodus" with a lot of streamers covering the game who never bothered before, we had the climactic culmination of FFXIV's entire MSQ.

Of course, this does nothing to alleviate the feelings of those playing at endgame right now and feel they have nothing left to do. But until we see how things shape out in the future, I don't think we can say FFXIV is literally dying as a game simply because we don't have a Bozja-like FATE-grinding zone this expansion. Not everybody even likes that sort of thing.

[Valkyrie_Lenneth]

People really don't realize how big an impact the wow exodus +covid had on the games population.



We normalized with growth.

[Denji]

i mean there's no endgame content rn beyond waiting for a pathetic few drips of story to come pissing down on us unless you're interested in savage content where you're not allowed even a minuscule amount of leeway or originality of thought without taking a billion dots, debuffs, vuln stacks and causing the entire raid to wipe.

what's the point in having HP if every little mistake causes your death. what's the point of playing if you can just make a flat list of each mechanic and how to resolve it. what's the point in having a healer if they can't save you or anyone else since a single mistake means y'all might as well start over anyway.

bozja and eureka - as much as people like to screamcry about them - were a good middle ground/introduction to savage-like content and there's now a rift between casual players and endgame content runners that's preventing new people from being introduced to it. this means there's more people leaving than people joining raid statics.

[caffe_macchiato]

First of all, I will not see an End of Service for this game.....for a while. But for the future, we don't know this. Think about this, if Ragnarok Online, Ultima Online, and Meridian 59 (geez, I was playing this game at MWR in Norfolk, VA when it was in Military) are still out there and players still play it then FFXIV is going to be fine.

The difference is in community. People make friends, a guild, and a community in a game. That game was doing well with people sticking around for a little bit. And then it suddenly craters during Endwalker. Suddenly, people are on their own. And there's no sequel, no replacement.

MMOs exist to build a community, and when people start escaping en masse like they are now, that is a problem. You might love the gameplay so much that you'd play solo all the time, but that's not what an MMO is for.

Those smaller MMOs like Ultima Online don't have very many people at all currently playing. For 99% of people who used to play, they've now moved to other things. You know, like other games. Except in the 00s, there were better options for everyone to migrate to. Now there's not.

We normalized with growth.

You killed off another game in order to feed your own. Millions of people vacated WoW to come here. Now you're killing off FFXIV with this complacency, so where do these people go now? Back to a 20-year old game? Doesn't that disprove everyone else who says that MMOs have a 10-year shelf life?

[Valkyrie_Lenneth]

The difference is in community. People make friends, a guild, and a community in a game. That game was doing well with people sticking around for a little bit. And then it suddenly craters during Endwalker. Suddenly, people are on their own. And there's no sequel, no replacement.

MMOs exist to build a community, and when people start escaping en masse like they are now, that is a problem. You might love the gameplay so much that you'd play solo all the time, but that's not what an MMO is for.

Those smaller MMOs like Ultima Online don't have very many people at all currently playing. For 99% of people who used to play, they've now moved to other things. You know, like other games. Except in the 00s, there were better options for everyone to migrate to. Now there's not.



You killed off another game in order to feed your own. Millions of people vacated WoW to come here. Now you're killing off FFXIV with this complacency, so where do these people go now? Back to a 20-year old game? Doesn't that disprove everyone else who says that MMOs have a 10-year shelf life?

We didn't kill off wow, they had a dev issue.



Tons of people flocked to online entertainment during covid. And now that covid is over those numbers have normalized. Shadowbringers was an outlier due to external circumstances. Comparing endwalker to it is silly.




It's just statistics. It's like trying to look at traffic patterns in 2020-2021 and trying to say that's normal usage

[seolhyun]

If I'm understanding the graph correctly, this decline into a new "low point" for Endwalker is actually about the same numbers we had at the launch of Shadowbringers -- which at the time would have been considered an all-time new record for the game by quite a margin.

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

[Snorky]

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

The graph is for achievements number of achievements gained by players in specific time periods, how many players make their accounts private? How many have most achievements? There is so much wrong with this data you can not draw accurate conclusions people in this thread can't even read it right.

I will again copy paste this statement by the person who made that graph from the same website.

Although the recent decline is worrisome, if you look at the overall number, you can see that the active character population is basically increasing, albeit in waves.

https://activeplayer.io/final-fantasy-xiv/

[CNitsah]

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

That's not what he is talking about. Q2 2023 has about the same numbers than Q2 2019 (which is around 200k).

[Musashidon]

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

the green bar isn't lost players. that's an assumption of some the people reading the graph.

[seolhyun]

The graph is for achievements number of achievements by players, how many players make their accounts private? How many have most achievements. There is so much wrong with this data you can not draw accurate conclusions people in this thread can't even read it right.

I will again copy paste this statement by the person who made that graph from the same website.

Although the recent decline is worrisome, if you look at the overall number, you can see that the active character population is basically increasing, albeit in waves.

it not about people that have most achievements its ppl that gained or didnt gain an achievement in a time period that have achievements public. its same as ppl linking steam charts when most ppl dont play steam.