LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Sindele]

There's one huge sample bias staring you straight in the eye: Japan's Steam adoption rate.

A lot of the other factors have certainly become more diffuse over the years, but that's one you're not easily going to get around. That rate has only grown sharply in the last couple years, and still remains behind where you might expect it to be.

As for Dynamis, it's an answer to a potential problem that hasn't happened yet and the reasons for it are only clear if you're looking well out into the distance. When 7.0 hits, it is almost a surety that existing DCs will lock down for a while and be heavily travel restricted for some time past that. They don't want potential new players stuck on a DC with no established playerbase and no available resources. Whether this was a better move than filling out the existing DCs is.. unclear, but given the server capacity differences between NA and JP and the historical behavior, there's probably a concern that the DC lobby servers wouldn't be able to handle a capped out NA DC gracefully.

[Supersnow845]

But why are you so worry about it for? Many games will have these types of peak and valleys when it comes down to population. Besides if FFXI can continue to push on after 20 plus years and still going strong then FFXIV will be fine regardless of what happens.

11 actually encourages the type of players that attach and stick to a game though, 14 encourages the transitory population you usually have with gacha games

[Boblawblah]

But why are you so worry about it for? Many games will have these types of peak and valleys when it comes down to population. Besides if FFXI can continue to push on after 20 plus years and still going strong then FFXIV will be fine regardless of what happens.

Let's just say he has a vested interest in many people needing certain..services.

[Avatre]

As usual CBU3 defenders have nothing of substance to contribute to any debate beyond memes and mockery.

As usual the 500+ account troll is trying to cause drama. Thread closed.

[Noumenon]

There's one huge sample bias staring you straight in the eye: Japan's Steam adoption rate.

A lot of the other factors have certainly become more diffuse over the years, but that's one you're not easily going to get around. That rate has only grown sharply in the last couple years, and still remains behind where you might expect it to be.

As for Dynamis, it's an answer to a potential problem that hasn't happened yet and the reasons for it are only clear if you're looking well out into the distance. When 7.0 hits, it is almost a surety that existing DCs will lock down for a while and be heavily travel restricted for some time past that. They don't want potential new players stuck on a DC with no established playerbase and no available resources. Whether this was a better move than filling out the existing DCs is.. unclear, but given the server capacity differences between NA and JP and the historical behavior, there's probably a concern that the DC lobby servers wouldn't be able to handle a capped out NA DC gracefully.

Does JP play very differently from NA? I honestly doubt that that would cause a huge bias unless we think that JP is much more likely to remain highly active than NA/EU. But let's say that is the case, then perhaps the Steam numbers paint a different picture: in that while the state of the game is enjoyed enough by JP it has received far less welcome in NA/EU. If that's the case that's unfortunate since I frankly don't think they care that much about NA/EU opinions unless someone like MrHappy or Zepla makes a video about it. So a remedy is unlikely to come any time soon.

Personally I think the pandemic bump would fade so I doubt Dynamis would be needed at all in 7.0, but we'll see. The problem can be fixed with cross-DC features anyways so it's not that big of a deal.

[Saucy_Jack]

I'd encourage you to actually read some papers because no one can get the full context behind any data.

If you can ever get the "proper context" handed out to you freely there is zero reason for you to exist as a data scientist - a machine can take over your job.

The challenge is in interpreting data while information is scarce. That's the difference between L6 data scientists and top school professors and reg monkeys.

No, that’s… not how that works. The fact that your dataset won’t ever be perfect doesn’t mean you should start trying to jump to conclusions instead of very rigorously picking apart possible bias or errors

For example, in your OP. You compare that luckybancho graph of players who gained new achievements with WoW sub data, pointing out that the shape of the graphs are similar. This alone is a giant red flag that you don’t know what you’re talking about here, because that doesn’t mean anything. It’s not an equivalent comparison, the time periods being compared don’t even match, and there’s no reason to believe the underlying factors are the same. This is the equivalent of WSB gamblers overlaying random graphs on top of each other to pseudoscience about what the next big market trend will be.

Even if you automatically assume that the datasets are directly comparable or that achievements are an accurate representation of playtime, which you really shouldn’t, you don’t actually take into account any context regarding the unusually sharp increase in post-shb player count (such as Covid, SL issues with WoW, end of a 10 year long story, as I’ve already mentioned). Should we be expecting EW subscriber counts to follow the same trends as previous expansions? Was the sharp increase in player count and sharper than usual decline expected due to unusual circumstances? If so how much? How does that compare to the actual rate of decline? Is there any rationale to consider expansion quality a cause of this trend, or is it just a correlation?

I’m going to be frank. I think you’re just spouting bunk pseudoscience and dressing it up as some genius statistical analysis.

[Sindele]

Cross-DC can't save you when DCs are at capacity and blocking inbound travelers.

As for whether JP actually has a better retention rate, I don't know that anyone's tried mapping it out specifically between the regions and DCs - it's just one of those things that should always be at the forefront of your mind when you're looking at platform-specific data. It's also part of my earlier grumbling about insufficient data slicing - one of my first curiosities is whether there's any retention differences based on when players started. Are we losing a lot of veterans? Is that shrinkage in newer players? Or is it evenly spread across the bands? Who knows.

[Renalt]

Literally every game ever goes up and down like a roller coaster in terms of activity.

Here's a prediction...it'll go back up near or after DT releases.

Here's another one. It'll go back down a few months to half a year after.

And yet another. It'll go back up when the expansion drops again.

[Final-Fantasy]

Oh no, game is in decline as shown by an Unofficial third-party website.

[Raven2014]

As usual the victim card is strong in thread like this. I read through the thread and look at all the OP's replies ... I wonder if he realize his thin his skin is?

That's a very interesting graph. But who is this thread for? Who is OP trying to convince?

That's my same question tbh. Ultimately what's exactly the point of thread like this? Like one or two I can see as a food for thought and serve as ground for discussion? But at this frequency of repetition? Idk.
To be honest I can't see them as any more then someone desperately seeking validation and attention. Maybe they keep doing it for a chance of one day they can tell the rest of us "SEE? SEE? I TOLD YOU, I WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG !!!" ?

Like ... I don't get it, regardless of what the "truth" is, people still sub and play the game because they find the game still enjoyable "for them". After all, we play the game for our own enjoyment, not someone else. Just like I had played and enjoyed many "niche" games, while at the same time ignored games there were universal acclaimed because they're not my cup of tea. Does people like the OP think that players like me need some kind of "data" to be convinced to stop playing? Like, the only thing that I need to stop playing is when I no longer find the game fun. That's the only "truth" I ever need.


And tbh I think that's how most people are. It's a game, I choose to spend time and money because I'm getting some entertainment out of it. The moment that stops being the case I would pack up and leave without being told or influenced by anyone opinion or data. But that simple fact seem to be incomprehensible to a small group of people like the OP. Maybe because they are wasting time and money on something that they're obviously not finding enjoyable that "my" common sense doesn't seem to apply to them. Or maybe they're people who most decision in life have always been under influence of others, so now they try to exert their own influence to get a piece of validation?


@OP, I used to debate with people like you with the same argument, but I think it's just futile. So I'll give one one single truth: it's a game, not a decision about which stock to be invested in next. The only thing that matter is my own enjoyment of the game. Your data doesn't mean squat.