LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Musashidon]

graph shows the same thing as normal people freak out there is no huge decline trend its minimal at best and it even shows in the lastest one it increased as 23Q1 is higher than 22Q4.

also the person you quoted says it shows each month but that's wrong as each quarter is more than 1 month, but it's a small detail.

[TheMightyMollusk]

So, how many "FFXIV is dying" threads does it take to change a lightbulb?

We don't know yet, but they're gonna keep coming until we find out.

[Saraide]

((Out of posts))

Well, people like me. I like data, and this is some data. The trends were "fine" and the financials were good, but this is showing a troubling trend. I respond well to data like this, far more so than various posts that get heated.

Well yea, it's interesting for sure. But I wonder what point there is to this thread beyond that.

[Noumenon]

but how do you untangle it from the general decline from the anemic state of the content

You make a good point. But that will be effectively impossible since using macroeconomic data to control for variations caused by macroeconomic conditions randomly is effectively junk science, because the lag follows an unknown distribution and we have zero way of determining that distribution, unless one embarks on a grand project to interview millions of people to track their consumption choices on digital entertainment over time, specifically gamers, who are unrepresentative of the general population, and generate a large time series dataset where we can then feasibly recover the distribution of the lag.

However I'm hesitant to say that that is actually a major contributor, in fact in the absence of data it could even be pulling it in the other direction.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...us-consumsers/

Digital media consumption has actually stayed steady since the sharp increase during the pandemic. Holding the effects of everything else constant, I find it unlikely that macroeconomic trends have that much of an impact on consumption of FF14 in EW, although it did almost unquestionably have a large impact during ShB. It seems like the pandemic has induced habit formation among a lot of people such that they would still dedicate some time to their FF14 hobby if everything else was equal (same content schedule, same story etc.).

Your explanation may actually explain the Steam numbers instead. A person playing FF14 for five hours a day and a person playing FF14 for two hours a day because he has to commute once again are treated differently in both data: in LuckyBancho they are counted as the same person. Each person in LB's dataset is treated equally regardless of their content consumption, so long as they clear a bare minimum bar (to play the new content in a patch for an hour to get the free achievement, most notably the MSQ for each patch). These people will be treated differently in Steam numbers because it tracks concurrency. I think the discrepancy between Steam numbers (70% decline) and LuckyBancho (20% decline) can be explained by macroeconomic trends, but a 50% discrepancy is too large to be explained by that alone.

[Oizen]

Who would have guessed a subscription based game that doesnt regularly add repeatable content will bleed players?

Some will come back for Dawntrail, then they'll leave again.

[Noumenon]

I hate these threads because they don’t actually say anything of substance. The negativity idgaf, but at least use a brain cell and talk about specifics of what endwalker did right or wrong instead of a massive wall of nothing that boils down to “endwalker bad because look at graph”

Do you want an entire book presented in every single thread? Different threads for different purposes. I wrote about my concerns with Eureka Orthos in another thread. It doesn't belong here because this thread's sole purpose is to present data and to discuss that data. Or would you rather we copy and paste every single discussion about Endwalker's problems in every single thread we make?

[NekiUno]

As usual CBU3 defenders have nothing of substance to contribute to any debate beyond memes and mockery.

Why you say that for? They are just giving their opinion like you are.

Besides, this game is going to keep on going until they shut it down for good and that will be a very long long time before that happens.

[Saucy_Jack]

Do you want an entire book presented in every single thread? Different threads for different purposes. I wrote about my concerns with Eureka Orthos in another thread. It doesn't belong here because this thread's sole purpose is to present data and to discuss that data. Or would you rather we copy and paste every single discussion about Endwalker's problems in every single thread we make?

If the thread is to discuss data and not the context behind the data, the reasons for the data, or what practical improvements can be made using the data, what do you expect to be discussed?

“Wow, look at that data.” “That sure is some data”. “This is some of the data of all time”

Or maybe you were expecting pages and pages of people saying “endwalker bad, game dying, look at graph” in creative ways as if that’s somehow worthwhile discussion?

[Noumenon]

Although the recent decline is worrisome, if you look at the overall number, you can see that the active character population is basically increasing, albeit in waves.

No offense but I don't think you understood that sentence or the data or anything really since that point is already addressed in the OP.

[Sindele]

(i'm not quoting the entire post and taking up half a page, just scroll up)

You're right that it's almost impossible to pull them apart, but that's basically my point - the timeline is too short, the situation is too unclear, and the data isn't good enough to make a comfortably definitive assessment of exactly what is responsible for exactly how much and therefore how much one should panic. The situation is bad, but when it comes to making or predicting decisions based on it, you want to know what makes it this bad.

Do note that the digital media consumption numbers for '22+ are pure projected conjecture. I'm always on the conservative side when it comes to these kinds of projections, but even so, I wouldn't hitch my wagon to the idea of '23 and '24 being stably predictable increases - those 65 minutes were not simply freed up from nowhere, and in certain sectors, life is trying very hard to claw them back. It doesn't help that digital media consumption is a hellishly broad brush, though - hours spent on a dedicated machine and hours spent on a mobile device both show up the same, but are not at all the same when we're talking about a console and PC MMO. XIV on the Steam Deck and its assorted clones doesn't seem likely to take the world by storm.

People really want to keep their pandemic habits. It's just that from what I've been seeing, they're not all getting their way. (Bitterly, me included.)