I done some quick calculations and comparing the burst for the ideal one and the worst one (inclucing the 2 GCDs just before) nets these results:
Ideal (2 DHS in FoF, Fast > Riot just before burst) total potency: 7080
Worst case (DHS/Fast/Riot in FoF, 2 Atonements before buff window) total potency: 6922.5
The difference here is a 2.3% lower damage output, however, not every buff window will end up that way. Most will likely have a DHS and 2 of either Atonement or Royal Authority, which just brings up the potency of the buff window and so lowers the damage lost.
As you also rightly said, dropping 2 atonements is quite a potency loss. Just dropping 2 in 2 minutes is 4 lost in total which is 1520 potency just dropped. Compare that to the lowest potency those are replaced by (Fast > Riot > Royal > Aton) for a total of 1240.
Together then, the 2 DHS drops 1520 potency but gains back 1240 potency, for a loss of 280 potency every 2 minutes, which, if you check the difference in the potency for the buff window, that is ~160 potency every minute, or ~320 potency, so, over 2 minutes, you have dropped 40 potency, or, 20 potency per minute between the 2. Considering the snippets of potency I have already shown don't even come close to the potency in a minute, 20 potency is not noticeable. Of course, this is not including raid buffs, which will technically make the 2 DHS stronger, but remember, I have shown the extreme case, so it is always going to be closer than what I have indicated here.
How can you optimise your defensives if your defensives aren't predictable?
Also, Mudras and BLM MP is not a good comparison. They are both things that are directly controlled by the jobs themselves and are easily predictable. Now, with Divine Veil, you can plan to proc it at a certain time, maybe midway through a repeated stack attack, you use it early so that it can come off of cooldown earlier, you have your Holy Spirit ready to proc it at the right time, but the healer decides they want to Medica 2, Aspected Helios, Succor or Eukraisian Prognosis to help with healing and mitigation, but wait, that has just proced the shield early. It was meant to come midway through so that you got some extra healing and a shield to help mitigate the next hit.
And that is just one example of where it is not consistent, I'm sure plenty of people could think of other scenarios where it can be activated early. The point is, yes, Veil is easier to use, however, it is less clunky and since you can properly control when it goes out, you have a better chance of optimising your defensives. If you care about optimising anything, unpredictability is your worst enemy.



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