This goes back to fights being rather bland and safe in some ways compared to what we used to have. By Guard I assume you mean Cover? Go back to the ARR-SB era and you'll find Cover had a ton more use. In O4S it was an absolute saver and I couldn't begin to tell you how many times I was bailed out of an imminent death by it. That's not the case anymore because A) Bosses do so few tank busters anymore, B) Tanks almost never struggle for agro and I can't remember the last time I saw an enmity reset mechanic & C) Tanks don't have a penalty for generating agro anymore. In many ways Cover is the tank version of Fluid Aura, a relic of the past for situations that rarely ever spring up in modern content. PLDs didn't complain about it back then because it used to bring genuine value.
Eehhh, it's a good bit more than 3%. In pug content where you can't guarantee value from buffs the gap is huge, Dancer is somewhere around 25% upwards behind the likes of Samurai. At the opposite end of the spectrum, in organised high end play, MCH peaks about 13% behind NIN's peak raid rDPS output. Granted, tanks are indeed generally much closer (Although again, DRK's burst damage cannot be underestimated here) but healers are highly dependant on organised play for their damage to even out. An AST in a messy pug where the DPS aren't getting value from Divination and cards is going to be some 20% behind a Sage or WHM.
I genuinely think you're just overblowing the manner in which the community will treat jobs that are behind the curve. Sure they won't be preferable but blacklisted? Meh, the last time I remember routinely seeing jobs entirely locked out of PFs was WHM during Creator, AST befell a similar fate during Gordias and in both cases it was arguably warranted as they were both significantly undertuned relative to the competition (WHM just ran out of MP far too easy in Creator, AST ran a knife edge of barely having enough throughput in Gordias with no way to catch back up if they fell behind).
In typically pugged content the composition really doesn't matter (As is handily demonstrated by the variety of comedy comps that can clear even early Savage turns nowadays) and if a static is specifically trying to get a precise flavour of the month comp above just getting people that are decent and reliable then they are either pushing for speed runs or more likely a group that's best avoided.
It's still just roundabout conjecture though no?



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