I think skepticism is totally fair.
Here's the thing, though; Houses are clearly extremely limited. I certainly hope they can continue to add Wards, and it would be AWESOME if there were enough Houses to give everyone their choice of plot. That is sadly not going to happen any time soon (especially when the Devs just recently talked about the difficulties of acquiring additional servers).
That makes Housing a commodity, both desirable and limited. That gives it value, regardless of anyone's thoughts on the matter.
By letting people at least TRADE houses, it would immediately open up a lot of options. For example, I have one of the beachfront Smalls in The Mist, which I think many consider pretty desirable. However, my sister has a small in Lavender beds. I would totally trade my house for one in her same ward, because I feel like that would just be a lot of fun.
With the current rules in place, I will likely NEVER have an opportunity to become "neighbors" with any of my friends. Because how astronomical is that chance, really? You'd have to hope that specific person just quits the game, and then go to the placard and click like hell for anywhere from, what, 2-to-16 hours? Something like that? Which I have a job, so that ALSO needs to all happen over the weekend. And I have probably, literally a 1-second window (at best) to purchase the relocation, because there are going to be others there doing the same thing.
OR...
I could whisper the owner when I saw them, say "hey how would you like to trade houses?", maybe I even pay an in-game fee as a gil-sink, and BAM! Both parties are super happy.
Now taking this further, I honestly believe Buying and Selling should be possible. Because if you REALLY want to make Gil, it's actually remarkably easy. Again, just work up crafting skills and start selling stuff. That gives YOU, the Player, complete agency in whether or not you can get a house. Because otherwise, it's LITERALLY a lottery. It's "fair" in that everyone gets the same chance, but I would argue it's NOT fair to those who are really willing to work towards a goal. If you don't already have a house, it is very likely that you will NEVER get a house as-is. Buy enabling the buying and selling of houses, ANYONE would be able to get a house -- you just have to earn some gil.
And again, throw a sizable fee on top, and it doubles as a gil-sink. Make it like a 25% "tax". So if a guy wants 75m for his house, it might actually cost 100m. But then that's 25m taken out of the economy, meaning that over time, it would drive prices down. Again, probably CRAZY expensive at the start, but over time things would level out.
That's not to say there isn't a place for the Lottery system. I do think it's a great idea for a newly-opened location, and if a house is relinquished or demolished, I think the lottery's great, especially for people who work. I think we would all agree, it's a massive improvement over the current system. But I think we'll just run into the same issue, where the housing market is completely static. At the VERY least, allowing people to Trade plots opens up some level of flexibility.