6.0 Predictions: Will it be Garlemald, Sharlayan, or Meracydia?

[Veloran]

Maxima believes in the cult of tradition as he refuses to believe facts unless they come from the Emperor himself. He is a traitor in his own right, but still condemns Cid as traitor.

What?

[MikkoAkure]

Not to get nitpicky here over Umberto Eco's 14 features of fascism, but Gaius doesn't fit most of the categories as he is willing to change based on evidence (Ascians manipulate me and cause destruction, therefore they are the "real" enemy), is willing to work with foreigners (he comes straight to the alliance, Cid and the WOL for help with Werlyt), he isn't manipulating the middle class or in this context his followers (everyone who follows him or calls him father does so out of respect), he also isn't subverting and demonizing sexual norms, he isn't using populism to control policy, and he isn't forcing news media to be on point. Plus his acts as Shadowhunter have also made him treasonous in the eyes of the Empire.

It is heavily implied that he and Livia were involved and he had adopted her and raised her from childhood. That sets off some flags.

Your boy Maxima on the other hand has violated many more of the fascist tenants then Gaius. Maxima believes in the cult of tradition as he refuses to believe facts unless they come from the Emperor himself. He is a traitor in his own right, but still condemns Cid as traitor. His populares movement seeks to overwrite the majority voice of Empire citizens to his minority movement. He wants to control the messaging in the Empire to gain traction for his movement.

Populares literally means "for the people". This whole plot thread is taken from real life Roman history, like a lot of influences on Garlemald. Senators who considered themselves "populares" supported the will of the commoners and pushed for reforms. Not sure how that equates to a minority to you. Part of the reason why Julius Caesar was celebrated was because he was a populares, which made him popular. His assassins were Optimates, who are also in FFXIV as the rival faction and are also more traditional and conservative.

Now we can debate each of their fascist tendencies all day, but what boils down here is Gaius has experience leading and has offered to change and has begun to make amends. Maxima is hiding with the Alliance because he doesn't want to be killed. Which one would you follow? The leader who wants to do right or the coward?

Gaius straight up deserted, which holds the death penalty in most places. On top of that is suspected of assassinating the emperor. He's got an uphill battle if he actually wants the throne.

[Kesey]

What?

Fair. I must have missed this point.

[Kesey]

It is heavily implied that he and Livia were involved and he had adopted her and raised her from childhood. That sets off some flags.



Populares literally means "for the people". This whole plot thread is taken from real life Roman history, like a lot of influences on Garlemald. Senators who considered themselves "populares" supported the will of the commoners and pushed for reforms. Not sure how that equates to a minority to you. Part of the reason why Julius Caesar was celebrated was because he was a populares, which made him popular. His assassins were Optimates, who are also in FFXIV as the rival faction and are also more traditional and conservative.



Gaius straight up deserted, which holds the death penalty in most places. On top of that is suspected of assassinating the emperor. He's got an uphill battle if he actually wants the throne.

Maxima straight up deserted too. Still doesn't change the fact that Gaius is a leader and Maxima is a coward.

[thegreatonemal]

He's pretty off brand actually. In the first meeting with the WoL in The Burn, he refers to his past self as having, "blinkered conviction." In the scene where he and Alphinaud find Black Rose victims, he refers to it as an atrocity and butchery. He also refers to his past effort at Eorzea's conquest, as conquest in the name of peace. Which is on point with the actual contents of the elevator speech. Granted, it's peace through force, but his desire for conquest cares a great deal for the lands' inhabitants.

Yes let me rule you because I know whats best for you and will use you in the best possible manner for my empire is totally a guy whos out for peace. Some Germans in the 1940s thought the same. Again him being against black rose is on brand. You can't rule land and it's people if they are all dead and the land is made lifeless.

The only thing he regrets about the Eorezean campaign is Ultima he just didn't know it was that destructive.

[RyuDragnier]

It is heavily implied that he and Livia were involved and he had adopted her and raised her from childhood. That sets off some flags.

If you mean the scene where he wanted to see her alone in his room (which was the only hint I remember seeing of things), he could just have easily been yelling at her for killing a bunch of people they could have easily taken as hostages to force the City-States into a position where they have to make a deal for the Scions release. Killing most of them basically took that option off the table.

[Riastrad]

...he also isn't subverting and demonizing sexual norms, he isn't using populism to control policy, and he isn't forcing news media to be on point. Plus his acts as Shadowhunter have also made him treasonous in the eyes of the Empire...


Now we can debate each of their fascist tendencies all day, but what boils down here is Gaius has experience leading and has offered to change and has begun to make amends. Maxima is hiding with the Alliance because he doesn't want to be killed. Which one would you follow? The leader who wants to do right or the coward?

Seems you missed the part of his rule where he allowed slave camps and allowed rape to happen.


NPC Glaumunt's account of what life was like for him and his family during Gaius's reign in Ala Mhigo:

"No, no, I don't mind, really. Truth be told, a part o' me was itchin' to tell you my tale. Mind you, 'tis hardly novel─I ain't the first to suffer at imperial hands.
Like most folk, I used to have a mother. She was a sweet, carin' woman with a smile never far from her face. There was a sister too. Pretty little thing, she was─gentle as a lamb, but tough as nails. We were poor folk livin' simple lives, but we knew happiness just the same.

An' then the imperials came an' took it all away. When Ala Mhigo fell, they put my family in a camp. Bein' a lad, I was made to do hard labor, while my mother an' sister were forced to do far worse... They hid their sufferin' from me as best they could, but I knew, an' the thought of it drove me mad. We had to escape. An' so I hatched a plan to get us out o' the city.

We were pickin' our way around a gorge not far outside the walls when they caught up with us... An' rather than allow 'emselves to be taken again, my mother an' sister leaped over the edge before my very eyes. Heartbroken as I was, I didn't put up a fight when the imperials clapped me in chains an' dragged me back.

'Twas some years after that I escaped again, an' that time, I got away. I swore then that I'd get revenge on the Empire, an' became an adventurer so as to hone my skills an' earn the coin I needed. But nigh on two decades've since gone by, an' what've I achieved? Bugger all, that's what.

Not like you lot. You ain't been here ten minutes, an' you've already done more'n I managed in ten bloody years."


Not a person worthy of being followed. Just meat before the butcher...

[Cilia]

While I agree it's wise to keep him at arm's length, it's important to remember that Gaius is no longer "van Baelsar," the Empire's Black Wolf. He is now just "Gaius Baelsar," and while he hasn't left the use of violence as his first choice for solving problems behind, he is not the same man we fought in the Praetorium, much less the man he was as Viceroy of Ala Mhigo. I don't think he's "seen the light" so to speak, but he is focusing his attention on the root of corruption within Garlemald so... step in the right direction.

I've not forgotten his sins, but people change.

That said... I would argue he is (arguably) the best choice for a reformed Garlemald. Not to take the throne, but someone with the will and the drive to reform it into a still military but less pugnacious nation. Ideally I would have Maxima serve as his top advisor (or veep) to rein in his excesses. Unfortunately Maxima doesn't really have the charisma necessary to lead a nation. The Empire is not going to go from its warmongering, belligerent ways overnight, but if someone like Gaius is able to show them the truth they may be willing to change - slowly.

(That's purely in terms of character. Considering the bridges he burned, I don't think the Garlean people would be very accepting of him.)

Of course that's assuming there's even going to be a throne waiting for anyone at the end. With Zenos and Fandaniel "reducing huge swathes of the Imperial capital to rubble," whatever's going down Garlemald as an empire is not like to survive much longer. Were I a betting man (and I assure you, I am not) I'd wager the Empire is going to be broken up into fiefs ruled by warlord ex-Legatuses, as is happening with Bozja / Dalmasca.

[Riastrad]

It would be wiser to just use him for all he's worth and then throw him to the Ala Mhigans. Lyse could certainly use the boost in morale if she were able to get her hands on "The Black Wolf" to stand trial for the people. People can change maybe(? Doubt it but you do you.), but when put into a position of leadership, you will 100% of the time see their true selves.

So... That is Gaius Baelsar, a failed despot who lived up large with not a shred of thought given to the people who didn't deserve to be enslaved and taken advantage of, but it's ok though. He was busy banging his adoptive daughter and only had a change of heart when he got beat, so we can forgive him for it all. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice? Like I gave you a second chance...

Pass. Pass so very hard.

If anyone deserves to be the new leader, it's Cid. Even then Garlemald will have to be completely demilitarized. Cid wouldn't want it to be fair, but he is the most trustworthy of the bunch and the people still love him. "Freedom through Technology" and all that. I can almost see it now. Cid rebuilding his homeland as the prodigal son, using the ideology he learned from his trials in Eorzea. A true technocracy. Would be a worthy send off for him after all is said and done as we begin chapter two of FFXIV.

[Alacran]

Seems you missed the part of his rule where he allowed slave camps and allowed rape to happen.


NPC Glaumunt's account of what life was like for him and his family during Gaius's reign in Ala Mhigo:

"No, no, I don't mind, really. Truth be told, a part o' me was itchin' to tell you my tale. Mind you, 'tis hardly novel─I ain't the first to suffer at imperial hands.
Like most folk, I used to have a mother. She was a sweet, carin' woman with a smile never far from her face. There was a sister too. Pretty little thing, she was─gentle as a lamb, but tough as nails. We were poor folk livin' simple lives, but we knew happiness just the same.

An' then the imperials came an' took it all away. When Ala Mhigo fell, they put my family in a camp. Bein' a lad, I was made to do hard labor, while my mother an' sister were forced to do far worse... They hid their sufferin' from me as best they could, but I knew, an' the thought of it drove me mad. We had to escape. An' so I hatched a plan to get us out o' the city.

We were pickin' our way around a gorge not far outside the walls when they caught up with us... An' rather than allow 'emselves to be taken again, my mother an' sister leaped over the edge before my very eyes. Heartbroken as I was, I didn't put up a fight when the imperials clapped me in chains an' dragged me back.

'Twas some years after that I escaped again, an' that time, I got away. I swore then that I'd get revenge on the Empire, an' became an adventurer so as to hone my skills an' earn the coin I needed. But nigh on two decades've since gone by, an' what've I achieved? Bugger all, that's what.

Not like you lot. You ain't been here ten minutes, an' you've already done more'n I managed in ten bloody years."


Not a person worthy of being followed. Just meat before the butcher...

Can't help but feel SE is trying to retcon this out by way of simply getting rid of the character & futher interactions with him others with similar stories i mean Hien even let free the man who owned Yotsuyu while she "Worked" in a brothel. (I'll add that one sometime later)
Makes it easy for Galrean apologists to tout the Empire's finer points while sweeping under the rug truths easily ignored.