Tales From the Shadows Updated (SPOILERS ABOUND)

[SannaR]

Because Urianger who seems to work like a deus ex machina wouldn't somehow have a white auracite on him to just go and give us one just to be on the safe side? During Stormblood and even a little bit in Shadowbringers has been giving us exactly what we need right before we need it. If not to their door then to what would be their original borders as it's stated that we pushed them back hard enough that faced with defeat they chose to use Black Rose. Even if it was just Eorzea, Othard, Ilsibard, and Doma that still leaves a whole lot of places.

We might not know how quickly the chaos and fighting for survival started, but even if you were able to sail south good luck with not being turned around. Ul'Dah had a housing problem with just Ala Mhigan refugees from its occupation by Garamald. Now imagine all the people from the three city state, Ishgard, Doma and the empire trying to clamber into you country because it's safer and has land that can be tilled. Also the one known safe route to the new world is still fairly difficult. Sure people are desperate, but are you really going to chance that crossing? Don't forget that the land was also effected it takes a while to make land to get to a point where it can grow things let alone grow something worthwhile. They didn't have something like Eden to help speed things up either.

[Rosenstrauch]

At the risk of muddying the time travel waters even further, I've had something floating in the back of my mind for a while that's been bugging me more than usual lately.

So during the quest Crossroads, the WoL witnesses an Echo flashback to the Flood of Light overtaking Nabaath Araeng. In it, Minfilia uses the souls of the Warriors of Darkness to further fuel her attempts to halt the flood. But she pointedly refuses Ardbert despite his desire to sacrifice himself, and this in turn connects back to Ryne's confused attempt to relay Minfilia's wish for the WoL to "meet someone". Minfilia herself alludes to that just before she dies, and it turns out she was referring to Ardbert—the implication being that she had foreseen the WoL and Ardbert's joining during the quest Shadowbringers.

Here's where things get weird: During the quest In His Garden, Moren has this to say:

Ahem. Less than a decade had passed since the coming of the Flood when the Crystal Tower first flashed into existence. Its summoner─the Exarch himself─became known to the refugees in Lakeland soon thereafter.

If we're to assume that moving Syrcus Tower from the Eighth Era to our version of the First is what forked the timeline, and Minfilia holding back Ardbert from sacrificing himself was because she foresaw the WoL's arrival on the First, then I have two three questions.

1. Was she aware that Syrcus Tower would spontaneously appear on the First?
2. If not, was the WoL actually meant to arrive on the First without the Exarch's assistance in the Eighth Era timeline?
3. If so, did something happen to stop the WoL from making the journey?

I can't help but wonder if there's another layer of time travel going on here. To compare this to Dragon Ball Z—particularly the Android saga and its notorious time travel shenanigans—is there a "Cell" out there that acted as the counterpart to our "Trunks" (the Exarch)? Probably not, if only because we're likely done with the First outside of Eden and YoRHa, but I just can't help but wonder.

[BlitzAceRush]

It could have been that Hydaelyn had some back up plan to get us to the first if Minfilia failed/was no longer able to act and so knowing this she left Ardbert perhaps planning for us to fuse for the power increase, however with things on the Source spiralling we die before she could enact anything.
Or more likely, she planned to pull Arbert back to the Source as he can move freely being dead and all and we died before she could get him to us.

We're also not sure what the nexus point was, the Tower simply being there may not have change things enough to split time as if Graha had say died in the attempt the tower would have sat there and done nothing, it's actually a good question, what did change? We know in the doomed timeline that the First falls and we die on the source, so what caused Minfilia to succeed? Or did she always succeed and then the first falls later?

[Cilia]

As far as I can figure it, the sequence of events is as follows:

1. ~100 years ago First time, Ardbert & co. unmask and defeat Logrihf and Mitron, kickstarting the Flood of Light. (Maybe. Depending on what Eden turns out to have to do with it.)
2. Ardbert & co., with Elidibus' assistance, sacrifice their mortal shells to traverse the Rift to the Source.
3. Ardbert & co. are sent back to the First with Minfilia, who stops the Flood of Light. Thanks to time disparity between the two realities, not much time has passed on the First (otherwise the Flood would have wiped it all out by that point).
3a. < 10 years after the Flood was triggered, G'raha arrives on the First with the Crystal Tower, people flocking to it and building the Crystarium.
4. A while later on the Source, the PC's consistent victories have tipped the balance precariously close to light.
5. At the behest of his Ascian overseers, Varis kicks off a war with Eorzea with his own ambitions simmering in the background. After Zenos-Elidibus is overcome Black Rose is used, triggering the Eighth Umbral Calamity.
5a. At the behest of his Ascian overseers, Varis kicks off a war with Eorzea with his own ambitions simmering in the background. Due to the other Scions' souls being called to the First, the PC fails to defeat Zenos-Elidibus.
6. Countless people die in the Calamity including all the Scions (PC included), but enough Ironworks engineers survive to open the Crystal Tower two centuries later, retrofit the Tower, and send G'raha back in spacetime to 100 years relative to the First's fall. The (a) events now take place in the new timeline.
6a. The PC is called to the First, and the events of Shadowbringers play out. The danger of the Eighth Umbral Calamity is nullified.

The Eighth Umbral Calamity was still a danger until the Lightwardens were definitively dealt with, and until their Light was used to fell Hades the PC was in critical danger of becoming the Lightwarden of all Norvrandt (as opposed to the ones they slew throughout the story, who only held dominion over individual regions). Eden has since been commandeered by Ryne to revitalize the Flooded lands, further restoring the balance of Light and Dark on the First and inhibiting its suitability for Rejoining yet further.

[Rosenstrauch]

We're also not sure what the nexus point was, the Tower simply being there may not have change things enough to split time as if Graha had say died in the attempt the tower would have sat there and done nothing, it's actually a good question, what did change? We know in the doomed timeline that the First falls and we die on the source, so what caused Minfilia to succeed? Or did she always succeed and then the first falls later?

I don't think it's actually a matter of Minfilia succeeding or not—that's something I take as a given. She arrived on the First, halted the Flood of Light, and proceeded to spend roughly a hundred years trying and failing to deal with the Lightwardens until, suddenly, the whole world got sucked up into the Source—just as suddenly, the WoL was one of the first casualties in Black Rose being unleashed upon the Eorzean Alliance's army, and boom, we've got the Eighth Umbral Calamity. If Minfilia failed from the word "Go", then either the First would have become a Void of Light or the Eighth Umbral Calamity would've happened much sooner than that.

Going back to my "maybe there's a third timeline" bit above, here's a hypothetical example involving Nidhogg's Eyes, to demonstrate how this might've played out.

Timeline A:

After defeating Nidhogg, the WoL and Alphinaud keep hold of his eyes. They never get traded around to Ilberd, and so he never embarks on his suicidal primal summoning/false flag operation.

The WoL is, somehow, sent to the First to aid Minfilia. Events similar to Shadowbringers' story play out, culminating in the death of either Emet-Selch, Elidibus, or both.

Someone from this timeline seeks to change the past, and as such travels back in time.

Timeline B:

That someone plants the idea in Aymeric's mind that Nidhogg's eyes should be cast into the Sea of Clouds. In the heat of the moment, the WoL and Alphinaud do so. Ardbert and co. retrieve the eyes and give them to Elidibus, who in turn gives them to Ilberd.

Because Ilberd's summoning of Shinryu is enabled, the events of Stormblood happen instead. The WoL never travels to the First as expected, and ultimately perishes from Black Rose, ushering in the Eighth Umbral Calamity with their death.

Two hundred years later, Syrcus Tower is sent back in time and across the Rift with G'raha Tia in order to change the past.

Timeline C:

From the perspective of the Source, Timeline C is exactly the same as B, right up until the Scions are unexpectedly called across the Rift to the First. The WoL is the last one to make the journey, and between Gaius and Estinien's Excellent Adventure and the War on Garlemald stopping with a ceasefire, Black Rose is not deployed.

On the First, Syrcus Tower's sudden appearance causes history to play out in a significantly different fashion, culminating in the events of Shadowbringers.

That someone from Timeline A may or may not still be around, and we have no idea who it even is.

Based on the absurd hypothetical scenario above, it could be a vehicle to return Lahabrea to the plot. Perhaps getting sucked up into Nidhogg's Eye to be used as a power source by Thordan didn't kill him, and since the eyes weren't drained of their aether to summon Shinryu in Timeline A, he was able to escape somehow.

Now, I have absolutely no proof that this is the case—I'm more inclined to believe that the possibility is just me reading too much into this, as the only thing even opening the possibility is a single line from a single cutscene. Perhaps in the Eighth Era timeline, Minfilia never expected us to arrive at all, and the actual point of change was earlier than Syrcus Tower's arrival date.

[Erendis]

Minfilia herself alludes to that just before she dies, and it turns out she was referring to Ardbert—the implication being that she had foreseen the WoL and Ardbert's joining during the quest Shadowbringers.

I do not think she foresaw our joining (as far as I remember her Echo did not give her this ability). She simply must have recognised Ardbert was part of the soul we were and told him to stay because we might need him.

[Alleo]

Because Urianger who seems to work like a deus ex machina wouldn't somehow have a white auracite on him to just go and give us one just to be on the safe side? During Stormblood and even a little bit in Shadowbringers has been giving us exactly what we need right before we need it. If not to their door then to what would be their original borders as it's stated that we pushed them back hard enough that faced with defeat they chose to use Black Rose. Even if it was just Eorzea, Othard, Ilsibard, and Doma that still leaves a whole lot of places.

We might not know how quickly the chaos and fighting for survival started, but even if you were able to sail south good luck with not being turned around. Ul'Dah had a housing problem with just Ala Mhigan refugees from its occupation by Garamald. Now imagine all the people from the three city state, Ishgard, Doma and the empire trying to clamber into you country because it's safer and has land that can be tilled. Also the one known safe route to the new world is still fairly difficult. Sure people are desperate, but are you really going to chance that crossing? Don't forget that the land was also effected it takes a while to make land to get to a point where it can grow things let alone grow something worthwhile. They didn't have something like Eden to help speed things up either.

And where would we get the Light from that is needed in huge amounts to kill an Ascian? We needed the whole light of the lightbringers to kill Emet and basically the power of the whole crystal tower to off Elidibus. I have a huge doubt that we would just produce something like that.

If it went as far as Doma why should it stop there? Why would it not spread to the other side of the continent? Its not like its sentient.

Of course it would not be easy (even though a lot of people probably died from the first attack anyways) but we are talking about 200 years after. If a lot of the world is still in a good shape why would these people that never met us go for a plan that could erease them from existence? This is not a simply ten years later lets change the past. Its 200 years later with generations of people behind that time.

(And we cant even compare it with the first because on the source it was "only" black rose with light aspects. The first had a whole different problem. Of course the earth was still dead according to Urianger. Yet people still lived in Isgard at the time of Graha Tia since we hear a battle happening)

In the end its mostly just speculation for any points.

[JeanneOrnitier]

I agree with Erendis, I doubt Minfilia had outright seen the future but instead recognized who Ardbert was and knew he'd be important for WoL to meet again.

[SannaR]

And where would we get the Light from that is needed in huge amounts to kill an Ascian? We needed the whole light of the lightbringers to kill Emet and basically the power of the whole crystal tower to off Elidibus. I have a huge doubt that we would just produce something like that.

If it went as far as Doma why should it stop there? Why would it not spread to the other side of the continent? Its not like its sentient.

Of course it would not be easy (even though a lot of people probably died from the first attack anyways) but we are talking about 200 years after. If a lot of the world is still in a good shape why would these people that never met us go for a plan that could erease them from existence? This is not a simply ten years later lets change the past. Its 200 years later with generations of people behind that time.

(And we cant even compare it with the first because on the source it was "only" black rose with light aspects. The first had a whole different problem. Of course the earth was still dead according to Urianger. Yet people still lived in Isgard at the time of Graha Tia since we hear a battle happening)

In the end its mostly just speculation for any points.

We needed that much for Emet because he unlike the others conserved his energy. Didn't body swap as often as Elidibus and Lahabreha did. Part of the reason why we used the tower besides that it was right there is because he boosted himself. Elidibus literally says that he'd be of no match to us at that time because of how much we grown and that's after we used a white auracite, Warden aether and a blade of light to kill off Emet. We also know that he hadn't gotten used to Zenos's body back then. We also know Estinien was near by. I want to say I remember Zenos saying he had arrived just shy of our fight with Elidibus in his body having just ended.

I'm basing it on how the other Calamities have acted. Well excluding Bahamut as he was stopped early-ish. They mostly only affected Eorzea with an exception of the Clamity of Ice as we know there were ice bridges. Ishgard is unique in that the city itself is hovering over an abyss. As to why go with that plan? There's enough people of various long life span races that would have had memories of us. Along with those who survived being able to pass on their memories. I mean we saw them find daddy Formpt's book written of our deeds during the dragonsong War.

Don't forget that Elezen and Padjal at least can live a few hundred years. The current guild master of the conjures guild is a few hundred years old.

[Alleo]

We needed that much for Emet because he unlike the others conserved his energy. Didn't body swap as often as Elidibus and Lahabreha did.

The only one that body swapped alot was Lahabreha. Its not stated that Elidibus did the same. And even for Lahabrea he only went down when he got eaten by Thordan. Heck we needed big light sources (and even a sacrifice of someones life) to take down a sundered Ascian. Elidibus says that also in regards to our battle power which is still different from killing an Ascian. So he basically admitted that he would not be able to defeat us in direct battle. Also we only got that strong after shadowbringers. Something which we did not survive in the other time line.

Estinien being near still does not mean that he suddenly carried around huge concentrated amount of light. Battle has nothing to do with pure Light.

But can we just take the other Calamities as examples for something that even Emet wasnt sure how it would go? He did say that nobody even the Ascians did not know how Light aspects would affect black rose. Also if we take all Calamities we cant just exclude Bahamut. I really doubt that the dragon would have just stopped at Eorzeas borders, especially since he was basically just rage and hatred at that moment.

Yes there would be various people that would remember us but that still would not mean that they would throw away the existence of the whole world 200 years later if the world itself was not in a bad place. (At the same time you wonder who even survived the attack because a long lifespan does not stop you from being immune to black rose..so maybe they all perished in the first attack)

Again if only Eorzea and maybe a few near places were affected, their decision to change this outcome would mean that they went against the wishes of the majority of people still living normal lifes. Also they do say how bad it was with ressources..again doesnt make sense if other countries exists. And we do know that every country has some connections to other places. Why would they not help? Why would they be so lacking on ressources 200 years later if other countries are just completely fine? And again even if traveling or going to other places was bad after the attack itself why would that stop people from leaving Eorzea in later years? Black rose destroyed life it as far as we know does not destroy ships. And there must have been enough air and stuff left for people to even be able to survive that long which should make it possible to travel with an airship.

For me it only makes sense that they are all struggeling and living in a bad place even so much later because the whole world is in a bad shape. Which would then make more sense why they would go for such a risky plan that could basically wipe out the whole world. (Since they did not know that they would continue living)