while what you say about variance/skill range is true the problem is that in reality it is "barely" true, true nonetheless yes, but going from lower quartile to upper quartile (so 25->75% parses) on the all fights metric
bard gains 8.2% dps
monk gains 9,2%, (not the lowest variance melee, both dragoon and nin have lower variance)
yet this so much bigger variance gets compensated in the form of 5,2% dps even at the 25 percentile range, it basically boils down to "its easier to mess up as monk, monk loses 1% more dps on average than bard going down 50 percentile points so lets compensate monk by putting him 6,2% ahead at the upper (75, lets not even talk about really high parses) end"
sorry but there is just a gigantic different between "compensating for having a harder time for something" and "compensating so hard you can outperform the competition with 1 hand behind your back"
that right here makes me question if you understand the word "Average", if say just as an example dancer had a 300 dps variance completly down to luck of proccs, crits not included as those are a factor for every class,
lucky run +150, bad run -150 than making it so dancer in his god run is 150 higher than an equally skilled mch and in a bad run 150 lower would if you run a boss 10 times once per week leave your group basically as strong with the dancer as with the mch, most groups would probably even prefer the mch for higher consistency and would also show up as the same average on logs.
Now on the other hand making it so dancer is 250 weaker than mch in a bad run and 50 higher in a god run would punish every single group using a dancer on an average run (average run, not average group, so for the "we are gods" crowd their average "99+ group percentile run), if however your one goal is to go for the best time possible, down to saving 1 second than praying for the rng god to heed your prayers may be worth it to you, which is what we can see with dancer being the most used in speedrun groups. however again, that is trying to explicitly balance speedrun groups, something for which there is probably the least need of anything in this game, this is literally balancing the game around 0,5% or less of the playerbase, (even worse, a part of the playerbase that probably feels the least bound to a certain class on a personal level and would sell their grandma if it raised there damage) in a way that works highly imbalancing down the line, as there isn't even a tipping point in favor of dancer in any kind of general setting, whereas the tipping point for "mch is stronger" starts at "4 out of 5 runs some of the best groups in the world produce when running 20 times in a row", its just that dancer get taken for the 1 out of 5 runs cause in the end only the god run counts anyways



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