HQ % is misleading

[Iscah]

Speaking as a non-pro gatherer with no idea what high stats/melding do... do you really have a 67% HQ chance on every node?

If not, the base of your logic is off.

In any case, my experience has been that my average proportion of HQ materials from a gathering session generally matches the HQ percentage chance I had.

[Tristann]

Speaking as a non-pro gatherer with no idea what high stats/melding do... do you really have a 67% HQ chance on every node?

Ofc not, only which have the perk +HQ%. Base max was and is always 15%.

[Iscah]

Ofc not, only which have the perk +HQ%. Base max was and is always 15%.

Right, that sounds more probable.

So at very least, your phrasing that "every fifth node should yield HQ on every hit" is misleading because you're actually talking about "every fifth node with a chance of 67%" which is still once per cluster of six nodes, I assume? In which case it's not every fifth node but every thirtieth that has a 20% chance of an all-HQ run.

On top of that, even if it was every fifth node, it's still a chance rather than a guarantee. If you could be certain of getting your "20% chance" to trigger within five attempts, that would suggest they're secretly adjusting the system to improve your odds if anything.

[Kenyon]

Right, that sounds more probable.

So at very least, your phrasing that "every fifth node should yield HQ on every hit" is misleading because you're actually talking about "every fifth node with a chance of 67%" which is still once per cluster of six nodes, I assume? In which case it's not every fifth node but every thirtieth that has a 20% chance of an all-HQ run.

On top of that, even if it was every fifth node, it's still a chance rather than a guarantee. If you could be certain of getting your "20% chance" to trigger within five attempts, that would suggest they're secretly adjusting the system to improve your odds if anything.

Not sure I understand your point. If I cannot use Unearth III i do not hit the node so it is indeed every node I'm taking about at 67%. But it seems like you might know something about statistics. If my % calculation is wrong (I got it off the internet and am not a math major) please correct me.

[Iscah]

Not sure I understand your point. If I cannot use Unearth III i do not hit the node so it is indeed every node I'm taking about at 67%. But it seems like you might know something about statistics. If my % calculation is wrong (I got it off the internet and am not a math major) please correct me.

The calculation is right but your conclusion is wrong. Missing a "20% chance" four times in a row doesn't guarantee it on the fifth - and you're looking at the wrong statistic anyway because (assuming it is truly random) it's all about the individual chances per gathering attempt.

The simplest way of understanding it is that there is no "running tally" for random chance. You might have your 67% HQ chance and miss three times on a particular node - and yet it does not increase your chances of getting something on the fourth. You still have the same 33% chance of failure that you had on the first attempt.

Your 67% chance, if consistent, means that you are likely to have something in the realm of 67 HQ items and 33 NQ items after a hundred attempts. It's even more likely to reach those proportions over a thousand, or million, collected results.

But short-term you'll see variations. Runs of good or bad luck. None of them affect what you'll get on your next swing.

The breaking up of your string of HQ/NQ results into "chunks" of four chances doesn't help either. Maybe you regularly have a string of six HQ in a row but split over two nodes, and so consider neither of them to fulfil your "20% chance of four in a row".


It also just seems unlikely to me that nobody has noticed your proposed "reduced chances" until now.

[Kenyon]

The calculation is right but your conclusion is wrong. Missing a "20% chance" four times in a row doesn't guarantee it on the fifth - and you're looking at the wrong statistic anyway because (assuming it is truly random) it's all about the individual chances per gathering attempt.

The simplest way of understanding it is that there is no "running tally" for random chance. You might have your 67% HQ chance and miss three times on a particular node - and yet it does not increase your chances of getting something on the fourth. You still have the same 33% chance of failure that you had on the first attempt.

Glad to hear the calculation is right. I have never suggested a guarantee at all. In fact we agree on this: its all about the individual chance per gathering attempt. Can you answer this: if something has a chance of happening 20% of the time and has never happened in 1000 attempts is it really 20%?

[Kenyon]

Speaking as a non-pro gatherer with no idea what high stats/melding do... do you really have a 67% HQ chance on every node?

If not, the base of your logic is off.

In any case, my experience has been that my average proportion of HQ materials from a gathering session generally matches the HQ percentage chance I had.

When you become more of a pro-gatherer you will discover an action called 'Unearth III' which grants 30-100 increase in HQ percent. That is how one gets to 41% or 67% (speaking about the new nodes in Shadowbringers.) The way I mine is only with 'Unearth III'. Generally if I do not have the GP for it I do something else. Hence all my samples for this discussion are using that action.