The Exarch and Zodiark

[Iscah]

The answer to this is simple...time. The 8th Umbral Calamity, the most powerful of them all, merely tipped the scales in Zodiark's favor, so there would no longer be a need for the Ascians to intervene. They are immortal, so they have all the time in the world to wait for their master to absorb the rest of the shards (which were probably slowly getting reabsorbed into the Source at this point), so life was allowed to carry on merely because it would eventually cease from all the unavoidable Rejoinings that would occur from then on.

More importantly from their perspective, the Ascians need humanity to survive and rebuild so they can resume building up civilisations and setting the stage for more conflict.

It's quite possible the eighth Calamity was in fact a disaster for the Ascians - that Black Rose worked far beyond what they anticipated or required, and humanity if not the Source itself is dying. Certainly this seems to be the belief of the Future Ironworks when they hatch their plan to sacrifice their existence so a better one can replace it - and the only way I can see it justified as a whole.

Obviously, that's informed our understanding of Shadowbringers' plot from the beginning, even if it's not really ever specifically clarified by ShB itself.

Not so much our "understanding" as our speculation about where the story might go. From what we learned in the game itself, I don't think we've had any reason to understand the next Calamity to be the final one - other than maybe wondering what would happen now we've had one of each 'elemental' Calamity.

[Absimiliard]

It's quite possible the eighth Calamity was in fact a disaster for the Ascians - that Black Rose worked far beyond what they anticipated or required, and humanity if not the Source itself is dying. Certainly this seems to be the belief of the Future Ironworks when they hatch their plan to sacrifice their existence so a better one can replace it - and the only way I can see it justified as a whole.

That was certainly the impression I got. The Source does not, as far as we know, have any special protections that would prevent its destruction if it came down to that. Bearing that in mind, Black Rose definitely seems like something that could kill the world if used too often. After all, it even destroys aether.

[AmemeAmeklin]

Emet-Selch was also seen muttering to himself about the effect of the Light-aspected calamity on Black Rose. I wonder what he thought it might do, and what actually happened in Exarch's future timeline. In fact, I wonder what future!Emet-Selch thought about what happened...

[YianKutku]

Emet-Selch was also seen muttering to himself about the effect of the Light-aspected calamity on Black Rose. I wonder what he thought it might do, and what actually happened in Exarch's future timeline. In fact, I wonder what future!Emet-Selch thought about what happened...

My reading of that scene was that Emet-Selch was busy trying to salvage the situation on the First, where Minfilia's sacrifice had brought the First back to "brink of a Flood of Light" rather than "actual Flood of Light". Since there needs to be a major disaster on the Source to coincide with that in order to complete a Rejoining, he likely just (in that moment) had the idea of using Black Rose as a catalyst, rather than whatever plans the Ascians had before that went awry. (Given Lahabrea's involvement before Emet-Selch took over, it's likely this was Thordan.)

[Absimiliard]

My reading of that scene was that Emet-Selch was busy trying to salvage the situation on the First, where Minfilia's sacrifice had brought the First back to "brink of a Flood of Light" rather than "actual Flood of Light". Since there needs to be a major disaster on the Source to coincide with that in order to complete a Rejoining, he likely just (in that moment) had the idea of using Black Rose as a catalyst, rather than whatever plans the Ascians had before that went awry. (Given Lahabrea's involvement before Emet-Selch took over, it's likely this was Thordan.)

The Ascians actually wanted it to hover on the brink. A full blown flood of light consuming the entire world would've had similar results to their first (failed) attempt at initiating a rejoining. The only real difference is that it would be a void of light instead of darkness. Ardbert and his companions not doing what the Ascians anticipated is what actually tipped the scales beyond the breaking point and triggered the flood. The flood is what forced them to step up their timetables on the Source; to trigger a rejoining before the First could be completely consumed by the light.

[YianKutku]

The Ascians actually wanted it to hover on the brink. A full blown flood of light consuming the entire world would've had similar results to their first (failed) attempt at initiating a rejoining. The only real difference is that it would be a void of light instead of darkness. Ardbert and his companions not doing what the Ascians anticipated is what actually tipped the scales beyond the breaking point and triggered the flood. The flood is what forced them to step up their timetables on the Source; to trigger a rejoining before the First could be completely consumed by the light.

Emet-Selch was responsible for Vauthry, and the subsequent pivot in Eulmore's policies. This heavily implies that while Ardbert had upended the original plan of the Ascians, after the First was temporarily stabilized by Minfilia's actions, the Ascians (or at least Emet-Selch representing the Ascians) were still trying to interfere to cause suffering.

[Ardox]

The Ascians actually wanted it to hover on the brink. A full blown flood of light consuming the entire world would've had similar results to their first (failed) attempt at initiating a rejoining. The only real difference is that it would be a void of light instead of darkness. Ardbert and his companions not doing what the Ascians anticipated is what actually tipped the scales beyond the breaking point and triggered the flood. The flood is what forced them to step up their timetables on the Source; to trigger a rejoining before the First could be completely consumed by the light.

Emet-Selch clearly state he created Vauthry following the failure of their plans involving Ardbert. (Innocence defeat cutscene)

From what I understand, the Emet-Selch got his 2nd idea for rejoining the First during the black rose factory cutscene (where he tells Varis they might not meet again in this lifetime; where he left for the first).

[Absimiliard]

Emet-Selch was responsible for Vauthry, and the subsequent pivot in Eulmore's policies. This heavily implies that while Ardbert had upended the original plan of the Ascians, after the First was temporarily stabilized by Minfilia's actions, the Ascians (or at least Emet-Selch representing the Ascians) were still trying to interfere to cause suffering.

Emet-Selch clearly state he created Vauthry following the failure of their plans involving Ardbert. (Innocence defeat cutscene)

From what I understand, the Emet-Selch got his 2nd idea for rejoining the First during the black rose factory cutscene (where he tells Varis they might not meet again in this lifetime; where he left for the first).

Note that Vauthry wasn't actually causing the scales to tip further. He was sitting on his ass and maintaining the status quo.

[YianKutku]

Note that Vauthry wasn't actually causing the scales to tip further. He was sitting on his ass and maintaining the status quo.

I might be expressing myself poorly. What I meant was that my reading of the timeline goes as such:

• Mitron and Loghrif tell Cylva to become the Shadowkeeper, and meddle with the First to cause it to come to the brink of a Flood of Light, but no further.
  
• Ardbert spares Cylva, and kills Mitron (and implied Loghrif, although this was only known in Shadowbringers, and not listed in the lorebook).
  
• The First, already on the brink of a Flood of Light, starts going through a true Flood of Light.
  
• Ardbert goes to the Source, and the 3.x MSQ happens.
  
• Ardbert and his crew plus Minfilia return to the First, and stop the Flood of Light from progressing further. This is the point which I believe the First is back to the brink of the Flood of Light.
  
• Sin Eaters start appearing, and the inhabitants of the First fight back, with the primary forces being from Eulmore, backed by the Oracles of Light. This is the point which I believe the First is recovering from the Flood of Light.
  
• Emet-Selch prepares to use Black Rose as a catalyst on the Source. I admit I don't know the relative timeframes of this and the later point, so they might be swapped around.
  
• Emet-Selch goes to Eulmore and sets up Vauthry's reign. When Vauthry takes over rule of Eulmore, he "allies" with Sin Eaters, and stops attacking them. This is the point which I believe the First has stopped recovering from the Flood of Light, and remains on the brink.
  
• Shadowbringers happens.

Hence, Emet-Selch was trying to salvage Mitron and Loghrif's failed plan by turning the situation to his advantage.

[Absimiliard]

I might be expressing myself poorly. What I meant was that my reading of the timeline goes as such:

• Mitron and Loghrif tell Cylva to become the Shadowkeeper, and meddle with the First to cause it to come to the brink of a Flood of Light, but no further.
  
• Ardbert spares Cylva, and kills Mitron (and implied Loghrif, although this was only known in Shadowbringers, and not listed in the lorebook).
  
• The First, already on the brink of a Flood of Light, starts going through a true Flood of Light.
  
• Ardbert goes to the Source, and the 3.x MSQ happens.
  
• Ardbert and his crew plus Minfilia return to the First, and stop the Flood of Light from progressing further. This is the point which I believe the First is back to the brink of the Flood of Light.
  
• Sin Eaters start appearing, and the inhabitants of the First fight back, with the primary forces being from Eulmore, backed by the Oracles of Light. This is the point which I believe the First is recovering from the Flood of Light.
  
• Emet-Selch prepares to use Black Rose as a catalyst on the Source. I admit I don't know the relative timeframes of this and the later point, so they might be swapped around.
  
• Emet-Selch goes to Eulmore and sets up Vauthry's reign. When Vauthry takes over rule of Eulmore, he "allies" with Sin Eaters, and stops attacking them. This is the point which I believe the First has stopped recovering from the Flood of Light, and remains on the brink.
  
• Shadowbringers happens.

Hence, Emet-Selch was trying to salvage Mitron and Loghrif's failed plan by turning the situation to his advantage.

Looks like sound reasoning to me. That pretty much sums it up as far as I understand it as well. We can't really get exact time frames since there's a time differential between the First and the Source that constantly shifts around, so I imagine that is as good a timeline as any.