[SPOILERS] No one seems to be talking about that OTHER huge event

[Lium]

Yeah, it’s doubtful it’s Fordola or anyone else but Varis or Elidibus. I was just spitballing. SE likes to have twists sometimes.

That being said, Fordola could conceivably have access to Black Rose because she once served the empire, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that she got wind of Gaius and Estinien’s mission to shut down the production facilities since she now works for the Scions. Maybe she tried to assist them in her own way.

Of course, to just be real for a moment, there is no way ANY of that is actually happening. I’m just being a fan and speculating wildly :-).

[Alleo]

It's all very theoretical and wibbly-wobbly, especially at the moment, but we can't say where the timeline splits until we are definitely past the point where the Calamity would have been triggered, but now has not.

The "original timeline" (ending in the bad future) may have always incorporated the Exarch and his attempts to contact us, while the split point could depend on whether he succeeds or not, whether we successfully complete our quest or not, whether we win the final battle or not. It might even hinge on some future point that we won't see until the patch quests.

How would that be possible if the exarch only existed because they tried to change the future after the calamity was done? IMO the old future would have just been "all scions awake doing their things, war still breaks out and thanks to us being on the field it comes to a stalemate and later we were seemingly winning? This started the use of black rose (we do know that Varis and Elidibus were talking about this when we were gone) thus the start of the calamity which seemingly brought the source nearly to its knees in the next 200 years." Seemingly that calamity was not enough to wake up Zodiark.

All of that ends with the future generation finding an entrace into the crystal tower where they also found Graha Tia. Together they found a way to travel back in time but with the tower going to the first so that he can pull them there to stop the calamity to happen on the first too.

I just cant see how the exarch would always be sent back if the bad future never happens.

I think the big change where the paths split was when we went to the first. Without us there the battles between Eorzea and Garlemald might have seen more stalemates instead of us winning it. Also us helping with the first also stopped the use of black rose because for it to be that bad the first needed to have their calamity. And then there are smaller changes like Tataru sending Estinien to Garlemald because we are all gone, or Gaius going there without Alphinaud. Heck we dont even know what the scions being awake would have changed but I do believe that the biggest change was simply us going to the first and starting to help there.

[Daralii]

How would that be possible if the exarch only existed because they tried to change the future after the calamity was done? IMO the old future would have just been "all scions awake doing their things, war still breaks out and thanks to us being on the field it comes to a stalemate and later we were seemingly winning? This started the use of black rose (we do know that Varis and Elidibus were talking about this when we were gone) thus the start of the calamity which seemingly brought the source nearly to its knees in the next 200 years." Seemingly that calamity was not enough to wake up Zodiark.

All of that ends with the future generation finding an entrace into the crystal tower where they also found Graha Tia. Together they found a way to travel back in time but with the tower going to the first so that he can pull them there to stop the calamity to happen on the first too.

I just cant see how the exarch would always be sent back if the bad future never happens.

I think the big change where the paths split was when we went to the first. Without us there the battles between Eorzea and Garlemald might have seen more stalemates instead of us winning it. Also us helping with the first also stopped the use of black rose because for it to be that bad the first needed to have their calamity. And then there are smaller changes like Tataru sending Estinien to Garlemald because we are all gone, or Gaius going there without Alphinaud. Heck we dont even know what the scions being awake would have changed but I do believe that the biggest change was simply us going to the first and starting to help there.

Tataru outright told us that, if we were working with the other Scions, we'd be able to figure out how to beat Elidibus. I realize it's Tataru and she was almost hysterical, but considering that everyone united was enough to kill Nabriales and Hades, she probably has a point. Elidibus either wouldn't have taken the field, or he'd have died and forced the hand of Hades or Varis.

[Alleo]

Tataru outright told us that, if we were working with the other Scions, we'd be able to figure out how to beat Elidibus. I realize it's Tataru and she was almost hysterical, but considering that everyone united was enough to kill Nabriales and Hades, she probably has a point. Elidibus either wouldn't have taken the field, or he'd have died and forced the hand of Hades or Varis.

I am not sure if we would have killed Elidibus at the field because even Emet was only killed because of the crystal + all the light we had in us. We would have needed that on the battle field too to take him out. But of course it could be very possible that we all fought against Elidizenos and unlike before (because there would have been no exarch calling us) we would have won, Elidibus might have run away, leaving the body of Zenos behind with people believing that he is death. And the death of the crown prince surely would have made a big change, enough for probably Varis to use the black rose and Emet with the help of Vauthry made the calamity on the first ready. Of course it could also be that Elidibus too died there somewhere but seeing how hard it is to kill one I do doubt it.

[Iscah]

How would that be possible if the exarch only existed because they tried to change the future after the calamity was done? IMO the old future would have just been "all scions awake doing their things, war still breaks out and thanks to us being on the field it comes to a stalemate and later we were seemingly winning? This started the use of black rose (we do know that Varis and Elidibus were talking about this when we were gone) thus the start of the calamity which seemingly brought the source nearly to its knees in the next 200 years." Seemingly that calamity was not enough to wake up Zodiark.

All of that ends with the future generation finding an entrace into the crystal tower where they also found Graha Tia. Together they found a way to travel back in time but with the tower going to the first so that he can pull them there to stop the calamity to happen on the first too.

I just cant see how the exarch would always be sent back if the bad future never happens.

I think the big change where the paths split was when we went to the first. Without us there the battles between Eorzea and Garlemald might have seen more stalemates instead of us winning it. Also us helping with the first also stopped the use of black rose because for it to be that bad the first needed to have their calamity. And then there are smaller changes like Tataru sending Estinien to Garlemald because we are all gone, or Gaius going there without Alphinaud. Heck we dont even know what the scions being awake would have changed but I do believe that the biggest change was simply us going to the first and starting to help there.

As I understand it, the "bad future" was reliant on three elements:
- the First being full of Light and primed for the Calamity
- the Eorzean army starting to gain ground
- Garlemald willing to use Black Rose in response to this.

All of these elements are still in place as late as Lv79 of the MSQ, when we are struggling to contain the Light and could fail and transform into an unbeatable Lightwarden. If this coincided with Garlemald being pressured on the battlefield, then they may still have triggered the Black Rose. The Scions would die and the WoL would be lost to history, assumed dead by the survivors on the Source and meeting a worse fate in truth on the First. The dark future would come to pass even despite G'raha's direct efforts to prevent it. (It's a stable time loop, essentially.)

Additionally, if any meddling with the "original timeline" results in a split, then we already passed the split point a hundred years ago when Future G'raha warped into the First. I don't think that can logically work. The danger has not passed and the Calamity has not been prevented until (at least) we remove the excess Light from the First.

There has to be a split point between the good and bad timelines somewhere, of course, but I think it can be after G'raha Exarch starts trying to summon us.

The Future Ironworks team get the initial idea to travel to the past and prevent their future from happening - but that doesn't mean that no part of the plan can have played out in their version of the timeline. They just need to be unaware that it happened, and that's easy enough to arrange. They're 200 years into a post-apocalyptic future where they may not have detailed or complete records of what happened in the leadup to the calamity. History might not have recorded that the Scions were incapacitated even prior to their deaths, or that the Warrior of Light was receiving strange callings from an unknown voice - or even if it did, they may not have connected that information with the idea that it would be caused by G'raha's own personal-future attempts to summon the WoL to the First.

I'm trying to apply "stable time loop" logic here as much as possible, because that's what we've seen previously in effect in the Alexander storyline, although obviously at some point it has to break. I assume time naturally tries to resolve to a single consistent state, but because G'raha has brought both physical matter and event-altering information across from the other timeline, perhaps that forces both to exist indefinitely because 'closing down' the old timeline would create a paradox.


I hope this all makes sense. It does in my head.

[Rannie]

I honestly dont think a stable time loop can fit into this situation Iscah. If memory serves me well and so far it's been doing a decent job... they all but flat out say that the WoL dies to Black Rose... due to the flood of light on the first as well as the calamity it caused on the source. Per Urianger , "For the weapon spared not one. Not even thee." Now I highly doubt that this was a lie due to it coming from G'raha Tia to gave Urianger tell it to the Scions.

Now, unfortunately, it could cause a stable time loop I will admit that portion of it but it's highly unlikely. However since now the warrior of light has stopped the flood of light on the first, black rose will not be as nearly potent, combine that with the fact that Estinien and Gaius are doing everything in their power to destroy it and the plants that make that bio weapon, it has changed history enough that, the Black Rose threat isn't even viable for any type of calamity for the source. It doesn't mean though that another threat that is equally as power has come into play. The down side to this is that the future graha doesnt know since he came at the time when it was still that threat of the black rose.

(And this kiddies is why you NEVER play the time travel game)

[Lium]

(And this kiddies is why you NEVER play the time travel game)

1000% this. I was just thinking this EXACT thing as I was reading all of these detailed posts, some of which require a physics degree to understand. As much as I love Shadowbringers, I absolutely HATE time travel shenanigans. They did it in Avengers: Endgame, too. It's such a worn out trope, even when it's done well. It also causes all kinds of headaches when you start to really think about it.

Shadowbringers does it well because it largely focuses on the human story of all the characters involved and what the WoL means to the people who have been affected by loss. Love this expansion. Hate the time travel. Memo to aspiring writers out there: leave out any time travel shenanigans in your story. It's cliche and only works very rarely.

[Dualblade]

It seems rather obvious that the EXACT situation that resulted in G'raha Exarch's timeline has been averted. That doesn't stop a very similar event from being able to happen but the events at present would seem to play out differently. Unless the game ends with our character dead (so not happening even if it was an MMO honestly) we aren't in a stable time loop. At worst Black Rose will be unleashed but won't reach the level of Calamity because the 1st won't be rejoined, and my own personal theory is that if it is unleashed it'll actually affect Ilsabard most of all given that its implied that at least Garlemald was not touched by it in the alternate timeline. Having the reverse happen with Eorzea/Othard being mostly untouched while Ilsabard gets wrecked by it would give the Scions the biggest story reason to move into Ilsabard that doesn't involve us invading the country.

[Daralii]

It seems rather obvious that the EXACT situation that resulted in G'raha Exarch's timeline has been averted. That doesn't stop a very similar event from being able to happen but the events at present would seem to play out differently. Unless the game ends with our character dead (so not happening even if it was an MMO honestly) we aren't in a stable time loop. At worst Black Rose will be unleashed but won't reach the level of Calamity because the 1st won't be rejoined, and my own personal theory is that if it is unleashed it'll actually affect Ilsabard most of all given that its implied that at least Garlemald was not touched by it in the alternate timeline. Having the reverse happen with Eorzea/Othard being mostly untouched while Ilsabard gets wrecked by it would give the Scions the biggest story reason to move into Ilsabard that doesn't involve us invading the country.

For 200(plus another 100 for G'raha) years after the WoL's death, stories of their exploits managed to keep a group united even after the complete collapse of the city states, Empire, and every other nation to the point that they reached a level of technology that surpassed Allag at its zenith. The simple act of the WoL surviving and continuing to live as a pillar to rally around changes things a lot even if the Calamity still happens.

[Iscah]

I honestly dont think a stable time loop can fit into this situation Iscah.

I wasn't trying to say the "changed future" we're aiming for can be a stable time loop. Quite the opposite, we're trying to make it impossible.

I meant that the idea of there being an "original timeline" with no time travel whatsoever leading to the bad future, and a "changed timeline" that now has G'raha meddling with events to achieve a good outcome (eg. as suggested in posts 85 and 87), isn't necessarily the case - and possibly can't be the case.

Rather, in the same way there is no 'unlooped' version of a stable time loop, I think it might be a permanent part of the timeline that G'raha brought the Crystal Tower from the bad future to the First a hundred years ago - in which case there was never an "original version" where he wasn't there.

The split depends not on whether he came (because he definitely came), but whether he succeeds.

In that case, the timeline leading to the bad future would still involve his efforts to avert it - except it didn't work. He couldn't prevent the Calamity, the Scions still died, and everything went to ruin.

(For this timeline alone, Future-G'raha traveling to the past did not change the state of the time he originated from. That's what I meant by calling the bad future a stable time loop.)


I'll skip going into thoughts on paradoxes creating the good timeline, but my point here is - we can't just talk about "how things would have gone in the original timeline before G'raha intervened and changed them" as if that's a fact - because it's quite possible that there isn't a version where he didn't intervene.