The coming Garlean invasion

[Remedi]

I get that Zenos wants to hunt, that doesn't really contradict what I said about us only winning the war because he didn't care about winning the war. A deus ex machina isn't just convenient timing, if there's a set up for it, it's not a deus ex. For Estinien, I forget if there was a setup with him beforehand or not, but while we didn't have a messenger sent directly to Hien to ask for help right that moment, it was set up that he was going to give aid once he could. I think Estinien was set up by showing him following on Shinryu's trail but I forget how much if any we saw of him before that point so he may qualify.

There wasn't a good setup for it writing wise
Yes Hien wanted to repay his debt, but first of all he said he would've been busy with the rebuilt of Doma, second nobody in the alliance saw fit to call on him to help on the front, I'm adding also the fact that now we know it's not so easy to move in between eorzea and othard because of the burn and other imperial provinces.
Then we factor that we prsesented ourselves on the gate of ala mhigo with no plans on how to stop an aerial assault after we know that air superiority is a trait of garlemand?
That is a deus ex machina or bad writing if you will.

@alleo Anything about Garlemand atm can only be speculation, there are some facts said here and there that suggest that what Ethys said is the case as I said but until Varis comes and tells us so we can just speculate, even then even things we knew for certain have been revealed to be something more so we can only wait and see

[Cilia]

We don't actually know that Varis was genuinely supportive of the Populares' delegation to the attempt at forging a peaceful coexistence with Doma. We can safely operate under the knowledge he was aware of the envoy being composed mostly of Populares and that their mission was to secure a peace, but we don't know if he was genuinely supportive of that mission or simply tasked with issuing the order by Elidibus and "Solus." He certainly wasn't aware of the plan to start a war by getting Yotsuyu to incarnate herself into a primal... and his dismissal of Alphinaud in the Sea of Clouds, his one scene prior to the Stormblood stinger, didn't suggest to me he was really interested in cooperation or coexistence.

[Remedi]

As the scions said in the game, at least publicly he was openly supporting it.

Yes we don't know if he was told to do so, but as said we are literally walking on the assumptions of everything while discussing this topic. ATM in the game it seems likely that he was supporting it based on what the scions said and the actions of the decrators.
As for hard stone fact on all of this matters there can't be since they are setting up this story as such they are as vague as they can be on the reasoning of why things are happening.

[LalafellDown]

With our sub money we will win the war.

[Alleo]

As the scions said in the game, at least publicly he was openly supporting it.

Yes we don't know if he was told to do so, but as said we are literally walking on the assumptions of everything while discussing this topic. ATM in the game it seems likely that he was supporting it based on what the scions said and the actions of the decrators.
As for hard stone fact on all of this matters there can't be since they are setting up this story as such they are as vague as they can be on the reasoning of why things are happening.

We only know that Varis was behind it because Asahi told us that he came in his name. That does not mean that this was true or that he did not know of this plan. So he could have made a plan with Elidibus to take out the Populares (just having lots of them death would still be a hit for their side) while official giving Asahi and the others the chance to go there. Depending on how it went, he might have even known that Asahi was a mole and that the plan was to sabotage the peace. Maybe the primal summoning was the only part where he and Elidibus had different views. Or maybe he truly believed in achieving peace (which would go against his cutscenes before that and would not help with rejoinings either, so I doubt it)

Honestly my problem was just that it sounded like a fact (more on Ethys side than yours) and I just felt like I was maybe missing some information. Its just a bit bad imo when you have a streamer that states it so clearly and without a hint that its not a fact, so I just wanted to make sure if its one or not.

[Remedi]

Again the scions say that without his permission they couldn't have done that exchange. Zenos couldn't have done this alone, nor the populares, they stricly needed the emperor approval to proceed and as such he sponspored them to the public.

[YianKutku]

It's always possible (and indeed plausible, given Roman parallels) that Varis would publically align himself with a faction or other while also publically disagreeing with their goals, entirely because he is playing politics.

It does kind of feel like the Scions, and the Eorzean Alliance in general, are using relatively modern Kremlinology approaches, while whatever is going on in Garlemald could fit closer with ancient Roman political maneuverings.

[Alleo]

It's always possible (and indeed plausible, given Roman parallels) that Varis would publically align himself with a faction or other while also publically disagreeing with their goals, entirely because he is playing politics.

It does kind of feel like the Scions, and the Eorzean Alliance in general, are using relatively modern Kremlinology approaches, while whatever is going on in Garlemald could fit closer with ancient Roman political maneuverings.

Exactly. Just because he gave it a go does not mean that he was truly supporting them. It could simply mean that he knew that they would not come back alive (just not that a primal was involved) thus he sent them to their death which would take out some of his opponements. Maybe Elidibus thought that this was not enough to take down the Populares thus instructed Asahi to summon a primal which hurt them quit a lot in the end.

I am not saying that it cant happen any other way. Its SE story at all, but just because someone says something in front of others does not mean that they truly mean it. Anyway if he was on their side then he has hurt them with that action quite a lot.

[Cilia]

I'm not even entirely convinced Varis sponsored the delegation. Remember that it was Elidibus (as Zenos) who gave Asahi his mission briefing and appointed him ambassador, not Varis himself - yet he told us that Varis had appointed him with his position and tasked him with securing peace. Maxima doesn't mention being tasked by the Emperor either - only that "Zenos" granted them an audience before their departure. There's... reasonable doubt enough to believe that Elidibus set the whole thing up with Varis none the wiser.

Even if he was aware of it, I stand by my position that Varis only gave it the go-ahead because he was forced to by Elidibus and/or "Solus," or otherwise did it just as a bit of political posturing. He did something similar with Meteor, after all (publicly supported it, privately opposed it through Eline Roaille and Gaius).

[Remedi]

No he openly defied Meteor, Solus was the one supporting it, however the emperor who Varis did know was an ascian yet told both him and Gaius to zip it. Actually he also forced Gaius to lend his help to Nael, since there was a scene I think from maelstrom quest that shown that Nael was assisted by Gaius in her work.

Besides ofc it is politics he wants to reign as all emperor and soverign needs to consider all options if the want to reign long