@Remedi: So its still just speculation and not something that was truly stated as an ingame fact. (Not saying that it cant be happening, just making sure if this is a fact or not)
I will post the rest under spoiler tags because its gotten big and even more off topic:
In the cutscene at the end of 4.3, he seemingly was not happy that they used a primal. Elidibus answers him that he knows that he did not want primals to be summoned but that this problem was solved by the WoL and that the primal will stay death. Then Elidibus says that everything is going according to the plan and that everyone behaved as they should. Thus Varis was on this plan. Strangely the wiki makes it sound like he had no idea at all but for me that honestly does not add up. Why would he only be angry about the primal and not that peace was destroyed with that if he wanted peace? He seems to know that this was the doing of Elidibus and not Doma itself, so why was he not more angry at him? Because that would have seemingly gone against his plan if he truly wanted peace.
We dont know if Elidibus lied to him and sent the assassins on his own or if Varis was truly helpless to do anything against it (still doubt it because otherwise Elizenos could have simply started the war withouth his consent). In this cutscene at the end of 4.3 Varis also still behaves like he has the upper hand. He is angry and calling him directly out of it. That does not look like someone that cant do anything. Maybe he already was just a puppet there and already full of doubt but maybe it was then that Solus came back and Varis view on Garlemald might have come crushing down, thus the doubt in 4.4.
In the end as long as we dont know Varis true own view on how to rule I am not sure if we can truly say that he sponsors them or not.
Asahi also stated that the Populares were already working quite long and hard for a better treatment of the provinces and that they finally got Varis to listen to their words. Since he is only ruling this empire since ARR (which including the time bubble probably means less than a year), the populares must have existed before that too, otherwise it would not have been a long and hard battle. I do believe that they already existed under Solus but never got him to listen to them (which we now know why). Varis seemingly also just listened to them now after they lost the regions because before that he did not change any threatment of them and even sent his son there to take down the new rebellion quite harshly. Also before Zenos died Elidibus had seemingly no important body to pressure him, so if he was on their side all along why not help them earlier? Solus only came back after Lahabreas defeat. I mean it could be that he used the time to push the populares but again, Asahi mentions that that he only recently lend them his ear.
I just watched some cutscenes again:
- Varis does not care if Eorzea or any country suffers or if he has to genocide all the beast tribes as long as the eikons are killed to "save" the star. (Vanu cutscene) So he at least believes that Garlemald is the solution to solve the problem and would do everything to achieve it, even mass murdering people. He even knows that the scions are also trying to find a solution but also says that they have a different way to go at it. If he only cares about the eikons why not try to work with them? This kinda hints that he believes to know it better. He then stands by when Regula orders to kill our beast tribe friends, even when Alphinaud tells him that they are not under any thrall. Only Lucias appearance saves the day. It is also interesting how Regula still does not hesitate to shot us down at Azys Lla. So that kinda shows me that they were ready to kill anyone that could have stood in their way including us the WoL. Does not sound like a man that suddenly wants peace.
- At the end of 4.0 after his son died and we won, he seemingly already knows about Elidibus but still wonders about how man would survive the rejoining. He is also still talking about the primal threat as if again Garlemald is the solution to this. That makes it look like he still believed that they were doing good and not that Garlemald itself was the reason more primals were summoned. So for me it makes it feel like Solus was not in the picture at that time either. (So again mostly decisions from Varis view). He is also working with Elidibus even though he hates the black ascians for summoning primals. Elidibus tells him that he is fine with him killing them. The scene makes it also looks like he knows what will happen with rejoining (just wondering what will happen to the spoken races afterwards) thus he is going with the plan even though he knows that each calamity does not only mean the death of a huge amount of people on both sides of the conflict but also the death of billions of people from the shard. And he is still going through with that because he believes that this is right.
- Even though he was angry that Elidibus wears Zenos skin he still works with him and the next cutscene is him again being angry at Elidibus using a primal. Elidibus at the same time still says that all is going according to the plan and Varis does not say more.
- Its only through the recent cutscene that he shows doubt. Maybe he has found out about Solus and how much Garlemald itself has helped with the summoning of primals. And maybe for the first time he asks himself if he should really trust Elidibus. Or maybe he realized that Elidibus could hurt him a bit with Zenos body. (Or he was angry that the populares lost but honestly after everything we saw in these other cutscenes I doubt it)
In the end he was mostly shown as a man that would do anything to "save" the star. That he would stand above the wishes of all these people all over the world and do what is in his view necessary. What if they take out the Ascians but primals still remain? Would he go against his old opinion and suddenly goes for a peaceful solution? Or would he then start another war just this time all under mortal hands? Again I have a real hard time to feel sympathy for someone that would throw away the lives of billions of people just to get to the end that he sees at best. And that for an end where he does not even know what it means for humanity at all. (As he says in the 4.0 cutscene)
This has gotten longer than I wanted it to be. I really need to many words to explain my view. x)
What I am saying: I find it a bit bad to state certain things as if they are facts. When I heard that in the stream it really made it sound like it was something that was told in the story and is true. But in the end its nothing but speculation and it could be a possibility. But it can also happen that he does not care about them at all, or that he will end as another boss that we will have to kill. I just wish it was stated more as speculation because people like me that do watch these things could get a wrong idea on certain points which could spin things in too different ways. (Like how I was really sure that its a fact that Hydealyn needs to eat the other shard to gain Light back because I heard this so much in some discussion that I believed them.)