The coming Garlean invasion

[Balipu]

Let's see.

1.0 ended with the Calamity. Hard to top that.

ARR ended with us fleeing Ul'dah, was a shocking moment at the time but the way it resolved in HW was a let down and was mostly a return to status quo minus one arm. But between 2.55 and 3.0 it left an impression.

HW had Baelsa'rs wall and the Omega vs Shinryu fight.

I think we can definitely expect something big to happen.

If we can believe the timetraveling voice dude, another calamity might come. Depending on Varis' resolve we might get a Garlean invasion.

[Nalien]

I imagine Elidibus and Zenos will reenact the movie Face Off in 4.5/55. The fallout of which could actually be just want Eorzea wanted. Obviously mysterious voice seemed to warn against Thancred's plan, but something similar could happen regardless with Zenos still on the board, we don't need to spread "lies" if the crown prince himself makes a public display of regaining his body... Would actually be an interesting twist if we go to Garlemald to quell a civil war we initially planned on triggering...

I assume Zenos wont be carrying over to 5.0 though, he didn't even want to be brought back to begin with, nevermind the fact that he is meant to be 4.0s big bad. Could be interesting if he takes Elidibus out with him, I think that could certainly be a big enough "oh shi-!" moment to lead into an expansion, considering we have an ominous voice warning us about the future and balance... Would also open up Solus to have more time as "the" Ascian, as well as perhaps pushing the mantel of balance onto us?

[Bright-Flower]

If we can believe the timetraveling voice dude, another calamity might come. Depending on Varis' resolve we might get a Garlean invasion.

I don't think we'll get a full on calamity, but I am kind of hoping for an invasion for a big climactic battle in ala mhigo, and maybe wrap up some lingering plot threads there like Fordola and ilberd's two surviving lackeys.

I have a feeling Elf!Zenos is a wild card even Elidibus didn't plan for and may throw a wrench in things one way or another.

[Balipu]

I don't think we'll get a full on calamity, but I am kind of hoping for an invasion for a big climactic battle in ala mhigo, and maybe wrap up some lingering plot threads there like Fordola and ilberd's two surviving lackeys.

I have a feeling Elf!Zenos is a wild card even Elidibus didn't plan for and may throw a wrench in things one way or another.

Oh definitely. Can you imagine Zenos joining the WoL to take down Elidibus and get back his old body for a rematch with us? Shit, I want to see that.

[ChaoticCrimson]

Frankly, I'm most worried about the effect that Black Rose will have in the coming patches. What we see in 4.4 is but a mere taste of the havoc it could wreak. If the Garleans refine and mass produce it, it could be a horribly potent bioweapon to use against Eorzea and Othard. If the manage to use it on a large scale, it could even be the catalyst for another calamity, I'd dare say. And if the Ascians end up being the ones that orchestrate its use, which seems likely, it's also possible that they may even sacrifice Garlean soldiers to ensure it makes the necessary impact. Given that pretty much the entire VIIth Legion was sacrificed during the Dalamud incident to bring about the last calamity, it wouldn't be the first time.

[Iscah]

Oh definitely. Can you imagine Zenos joining the WoL to take down Elidibus and get back his old body for a rematch with us? Shit, I want to see that.

I don’t think it would necessarily work that way. Remember that body died. It’s one thing for an Ascian to possess it, and there’s a possibility it was restored to life (in that last scene of 4.2?) but not known for sure. The only thing Zenos might get out of repossessing his original body is true death.

But there are a few other ways the plot could go with putting him ‘on our side’.

As someone mentioned in another discussion, he may go after Elidibus just for the chance to be able to fight himself.

Or he may unexpectedly come to our aid because “nobody gets to kill you except me! (and I’m not ready to do that yet in this body.)”

[Alleo]

He forbade it yes, until someone reminded him that he is a puppet and must do what he is told, so that invasion is coming.
Varis did try to change the course of the empire by sponsoring the populares, but someone saw to end that before it could happen

Did I miss something ingame because I have no clue where this was stated? Ethys talked about this too but later said that this is the case because the Populares got bigger under Varis rule..If there is no direct hint ingame then wouldnt that be a bit of speculation? Because its not that surprising of having opponements if you have a rule that not everyone likes. Also didnt the Populares want true peace? At least if my memories serve me correctly Maxima was all about not starting another war and the populares did lose a bit because of the primal rumor which would only happen if they had the vision to not conquer anymore.

On topic: I dont think that we will really have a invasion. That would kinda mean that we would lose some city states and I cant see SE doing all the work and creating different assets for whole zones. I mean maybe Ala Mhigo itself might fall, be destroyed or even the first vicitm to the Black rose (since its not really a functional city that people can visit) but an invasion would imo mean too much change. (Not that its 100% impossible but I kinda doubt it)

About the off topic:

Are some really trying to push the trip to Eureka which happens under private companies onto the shoulders of the government and try to spin it as trying to conquer countries? Come on..nobody ever said that Eorzeas city states were without faults but unlike Garlemald which is now a government that exists only to sow chaos and that managed to create a calamity (which means millions or even billions of death people..) and that just razed a main city to the ground for the rebellion, they are quite morally on the higher ground. Even old Ishgard was never that bad and that is saying something. Heck we do know the view from all the current leaders and they all want peace. They may have made mistakes in their governments too but no state exists that is without fault. But most of the stuff that is happening there is something that you can find in a lot of our own rl countries too and thus makes them nuanced, normal countries. Nothing too bad, but also not perfect. Honestly they would need to throw an nuclear bomb on Garlemald and enslave the survivors before they even get near the bad stuff that Garlemald has done the last few decades. (And now we know that this was done on purpose too! And even if an Ascian was behind it, they still need the majority of people behind their cause, otherwise they have no people to rule.)

And lets not forget that you cant even put Eureka in the same category as other "conquerings" (if they would be on the governments shoulders which they are not) because other than some monsters nobody else lives on Eureka. Thus nobody was killed for the land, nobody got enslaved for the land and the only negative consquence is the loss of money for Hingashi which they seemingly brought onto themselves.

So please lets try a bit harder if one really does want to put some blame on the states instead of such examples or even starting to use What ifs..because those have no place in a reasonable discussions about facts and some future speculations thanks to these facts.

(Also if people are allowed to gush over Varis, then others can do the same with the Eorzean leaders. And at least we do really know their objectives so no speculation on their character in that part)

Also some nice definition of imperialism:

1. the policy of extending the rule or authority of an empire or nation over foreign countries, or of acquiring and holding colonies and dependencies. (it was not the government that went there but private companies so nope)
2. advocacy of imperial or sovereign interests over the interests of the dependent states. (There is not state there that could be dependent and thus also no forced interests)
3. imperial government; rule by an emperor or empress. (No government rules there)

Just saying

[Remedi]

I don't know that I'd call it a deus ex machina, it was just Hien repaying the favor after we wrapped up the Doma arc and he just couldn't come right away because a temporary government had to be set up before he left to aid us.

Ultimately though the story felt unsatisfying. We won for one reason: Zenos didn't care about winning. It was his war to lose, and he lost it because he was more interested in fighting the WOL. He could have ended things at Rhalgr's Reach. He could have killed the WoL, killed a few of the Scions, utterly crushed the resistance. But what does he do? He just up and leaves, LETTING US KEEP THE REACH. And on the doma side of things he leaves someone he admits is not qualified for the job in charge because he just wants to leave. Ultimately the war story was a big let down.

It is a deus ex machina, because no1 sent an emissary to Hien telling him we needed help, he literally appeared the moment we were getting rekt by the air force as such in writing terms it's a deus ex machina.
The same can be said for Estinien's actions, since he appeared at the right moment preventing the empire to blast Ala ghiri, in fact we even had a quest asking us to see why the empire didn't fire yet.
Imho you are not understanding what Zenos really wanted, he wants to hunts, that's why he left Yotsusyu in charge of Doma he wanted her to fester hate in the populace hoping that a worthy prey could rise, someone worthy to be killed, that is why he left us alive the second time, he wanted us to grow in power because he saw potential in us. But that aside it could've been anyone, the reason he doesn't kill everyone is exactly that to keep breeding hate and dissent so that ppl can raise again and be quashed in the hunt.

@Alleo what me and Ethys go for, is that he did sponsor the populares initiative afterall otherwise that couldn't have happened, Zenolidubus saw fit to ruin that for him though. The hint is that the exchange did happen and in-game even the scions says that it makes no sense for the royal guards to kill the populares envoy because Varis allowed the exchange and they do say that it's probably Zenos' doing, but concludes that while Varis might not have been behind the order to kill them he is surely in the known of this by now, which implies now their treaty is in tatter (especiaqlly for the primal summoning thing).
In short he tried to have his way and the ascians reminded him to shut up and do what he's supposed to do

[Bright-Flower]

It is a deus ex machina, because no1 sent an emissary to Hien telling him we needed help, he literally appeared the moment we were getting rekt by the air force as such in writing terms it's a deus ex machina.
The same can be said for Estinien's actions, since he appeared at the right moment preventing the empire to blast Ala ghiri, in fact we even had a quest asking us to see why the empire didn't fire yet.
Imho you are not understanding what Zenos really wanted, he wants to hunts, that's why he left Yotsusyu in charge of Doma he wanted her to fester hate in the populace hoping that a worthy prey could rise, someone worthy to be killed, that is why he left us alive the second time, he wanted us to grow in power because he saw potential in us. But that aside it could've been anyone, the reason he doesn't kill everyone is exactly that to keep breeding hate and dissent so that ppl can raise again and be quashed in the hunt.

@Alleo what me and Ethys go for, is that he did sponsor the populares initiative afterall otherwise that couldn't have happened, Zenolidubus saw fit to ruin that for him though. The hint is that the exchange did happen and in-game even the scions says that it makes no sense for the royal guards to kill the populares envoy because Varis allowed the exchange and they do say that it's probably Zenos' doing, but concludes that while Varis might not have been behind the order to kill them he is surely in the known of this by now, which implies now their treaty is in tatter (especiaqlly for the primal summoning thing).
In short he tried to have his way and the ascians reminded him to shut up and do what he's supposed to do

I get that Zenos wants to hunt, that doesn't really contradict what I said about us only winning the war because he didn't care about winning the war. A deus ex machina isn't just convenient timing, if there's a set up for it, it's not a deus ex. For Estinien, I forget if there was a setup with him beforehand or not, but while we didn't have a messenger sent directly to Hien to ask for help right that moment, it was set up that he was going to give aid once he could. I think Estinien was set up by showing him following on Shinryu's trail but I forget how much if any we saw of him before that point so he may qualify.

[Alleo]

@Remedi: So its still just speculation and not something that was truly stated as an ingame fact. (Not saying that it cant be happening, just making sure if this is a fact or not)

I will post the rest under spoiler tags because its gotten big and even more off topic:

In the cutscene at the end of 4.3, he seemingly was not happy that they used a primal. Elidibus answers him that he knows that he did not want primals to be summoned but that this problem was solved by the WoL and that the primal will stay death. Then Elidibus says that everything is going according to the plan and that everyone behaved as they should. Thus Varis was on this plan. Strangely the wiki makes it sound like he had no idea at all but for me that honestly does not add up. Why would he only be angry about the primal and not that peace was destroyed with that if he wanted peace? He seems to know that this was the doing of Elidibus and not Doma itself, so why was he not more angry at him? Because that would have seemingly gone against his plan if he truly wanted peace.

We dont know if Elidibus lied to him and sent the assassins on his own or if Varis was truly helpless to do anything against it (still doubt it because otherwise Elizenos could have simply started the war withouth his consent). In this cutscene at the end of 4.3 Varis also still behaves like he has the upper hand. He is angry and calling him directly out of it. That does not look like someone that cant do anything. Maybe he already was just a puppet there and already full of doubt but maybe it was then that Solus came back and Varis view on Garlemald might have come crushing down, thus the doubt in 4.4.

In the end as long as we dont know Varis true own view on how to rule I am not sure if we can truly say that he sponsors them or not.

Asahi also stated that the Populares were already working quite long and hard for a better treatment of the provinces and that they finally got Varis to listen to their words. Since he is only ruling this empire since ARR (which including the time bubble probably means less than a year), the populares must have existed before that too, otherwise it would not have been a long and hard battle. I do believe that they already existed under Solus but never got him to listen to them (which we now know why). Varis seemingly also just listened to them now after they lost the regions because before that he did not change any threatment of them and even sent his son there to take down the new rebellion quite harshly. Also before Zenos died Elidibus had seemingly no important body to pressure him, so if he was on their side all along why not help them earlier? Solus only came back after Lahabreas defeat. I mean it could be that he used the time to push the populares but again, Asahi mentions that that he only recently lend them his ear.

I just watched some cutscenes again:

- Varis does not care if Eorzea or any country suffers or if he has to genocide all the beast tribes as long as the eikons are killed to "save" the star. (Vanu cutscene) So he at least believes that Garlemald is the solution to solve the problem and would do everything to achieve it, even mass murdering people. He even knows that the scions are also trying to find a solution but also says that they have a different way to go at it. If he only cares about the eikons why not try to work with them? This kinda hints that he believes to know it better. He then stands by when Regula orders to kill our beast tribe friends, even when Alphinaud tells him that they are not under any thrall. Only Lucias appearance saves the day. It is also interesting how Regula still does not hesitate to shot us down at Azys Lla. So that kinda shows me that they were ready to kill anyone that could have stood in their way including us the WoL. Does not sound like a man that suddenly wants peace.

- At the end of 4.0 after his son died and we won, he seemingly already knows about Elidibus but still wonders about how man would survive the rejoining. He is also still talking about the primal threat as if again Garlemald is the solution to this. That makes it look like he still believed that they were doing good and not that Garlemald itself was the reason more primals were summoned. So for me it makes it feel like Solus was not in the picture at that time either. (So again mostly decisions from Varis view). He is also working with Elidibus even though he hates the black ascians for summoning primals. Elidibus tells him that he is fine with him killing them. The scene makes it also looks like he knows what will happen with rejoining (just wondering what will happen to the spoken races afterwards) thus he is going with the plan even though he knows that each calamity does not only mean the death of a huge amount of people on both sides of the conflict but also the death of billions of people from the shard. And he is still going through with that because he believes that this is right.

- Even though he was angry that Elidibus wears Zenos skin he still works with him and the next cutscene is him again being angry at Elidibus using a primal. Elidibus at the same time still says that all is going according to the plan and Varis does not say more.

- Its only through the recent cutscene that he shows doubt. Maybe he has found out about Solus and how much Garlemald itself has helped with the summoning of primals. And maybe for the first time he asks himself if he should really trust Elidibus. Or maybe he realized that Elidibus could hurt him a bit with Zenos body. (Or he was angry that the populares lost but honestly after everything we saw in these other cutscenes I doubt it)

In the end he was mostly shown as a man that would do anything to "save" the star. That he would stand above the wishes of all these people all over the world and do what is in his view necessary. What if they take out the Ascians but primals still remain? Would he go against his old opinion and suddenly goes for a peaceful solution? Or would he then start another war just this time all under mortal hands? Again I have a real hard time to feel sympathy for someone that would throw away the lives of billions of people just to get to the end that he sees at best. And that for an end where he does not even know what it means for humanity at all. (As he says in the 4.0 cutscene)

This has gotten longer than I wanted it to be. I really need to many words to explain my view. x)

What I am saying: I find it a bit bad to state certain things as if they are facts. When I heard that in the stream it really made it sound like it was something that was told in the story and is true. But in the end its nothing but speculation and it could be a possibility. But it can also happen that he does not care about them at all, or that he will end as another boss that we will have to kill. I just wish it was stated more as speculation because people like me that do watch these things could get a wrong idea on certain points which could spin things in too different ways. (Like how I was really sure that its a fact that Hydealyn needs to eat the other shard to gain Light back because I heard this so much in some discussion that I believed them.)