Forbidden Materia, meant for the hardcore or just the lucky?

[MeowyWowie]

Warning: Long post, no TL;DR.

Recently, I decided to start working on a pair of gloves with 5 materia in it. After doing some quick math it quickly became apparent how difficult (or perhaps just time/gil consuming) it really is.

As a hardcore player myself, I enjoy long term goals. So even after seeing the estimated probability of making these gloves, I still wish to complete this task. In a game where there really isn't much to do, this will keep me busy for quite a while. I've done relics in FFXI, so it's really just the same thing except for much lower reward.

However, the more I think about it, the more unrealistic this goal appears to be. Considering the amount of materia involved and the amount of materia available on any given server, it should take roughly 5 months to complete. Yes, I understand that M5 is not meant for everyone, but it seems this is meant more for hardcore gamblers and not hardcore players as we were told.

There are 2 ways to go about this goal.

The gambler's approach: Trying to attempt it on a glove by glove basis, basically trying to do M2 > M3 > M4 > M5 on each glove separately. This is basically just pushing your luck and keeping your fingers crossed.

The hardcore player's approach: Making multiple gloves of a tier in one sitting, accumulating the successful melds and repeating the process. Example: Make 20 pairs of M2 gloves, then attempting to M3 on all of them at once, continuing this process until the final product is created.

I've decided to go the 2nd route. I'm not much of a gambler myself, unless it's a game like Texas Hold Em that requires some thought and not just pure luck. I also believe hard work should be rewarded.

The biggest problem I'm seeing is the short supply of materia. Anyone who's completed relic weapons in FFXI will know what I mean. Overall, my goal is to make a pair of gloves with STR II + STR II + STR III + ATT III + ATT III. Keep in mind, this is just an upper-mid level 5-materia meld.

Based on the math, this will require 1500 gloves, 3000 STR II materia, 500 STR III materia, and 110 ATT III materia.

The percentages I used to get these numbers are ~33% for 2nd meld, ~20% for 3rd meld, ~10% for 4th meld and ~10% for 5th meld. This leads to an overall probability of 0.066% The 5th meld percent I am not positive about, if anyone can confirm or disprove that the 4th and 5th melds have the same probability when using the same materia, please let me know. If not, it can drastically alter to overall probability of the final product. Also, if my math seems off, please feel free to correct me.

Now, onto the main problem. As I mentioned earlier, the biggest problem is the short supply of materia. Currently, I am getting STR II materia at a rate of about 20 a day. I shout for it every ~15 min in Uldah and often check the market wards. At this rate, it will take me roughly 5 months to get the 3000 I estimate I'll need.

However, for a game that is still in its infancy and has many level cap raises on the horizon (possibly as soon as 1.21), this all seems like a waste of time. By the time I finally finish the gloves, the cap will be raised, there will be better gloves, and there will likely also be higher tier / different materia.

As a hardcore player, I feel that the work I'd be putting into this personal quest of mine would simply be made obsolete as the time I invest into it passes. It all seems to contradict itself.

So, to the community, the dev team, and to Yoshi P, is this really meant for hardcore players as we were told? Or was it made for players who just like to push their luck?

I understand that the current materia system is still in its Beta phase and we will be seeing many adjustments on it in the future. What can be done to make goals like these completable in a reasonable time frame?

Some ideas of mine:

Higher level gear, when spiritbonded, can make multiple lower tier materia.

Materia sold by NPCs for either gil, company seals or guild marks (would have been a good use for marks).

Successful melds increase your affinity with the type and tier of materia you are using, increasing your probability of future melds when using the same type and tier of materia.

Faster spiritbond rates (If I'm not mistaken, this will be adjusted in 1.20)

Fixed probabilities for 3rd, 4th and 5th melds on a single item.

Enchanted items that increase melding probability rate for a period of time, possibly wearing off after a successful meld.

Items with a smaller materia tables, making it easier to obtain the materia you're aiming for (Currently, it seems the materia tables actually vary by slot, while each piece of gear for that slot just has different probabilities for the materia within the table).

Those are just off the top of my head.

How do you guys feel about this? What do you think could / should be adjusted? Do you think forbidden materia should be more luck based or rely more on dedication?

Sorry for the incredibly long post. I really don't think that there would be a good TL;DR version that would explain everything effectively. I'll still be working on the gloves even though I realize what an incredible amount of time is needed, which really won't be worth it in the end lol..

For those interested, I'll be updating my progress in the following thread.

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...will-buy-them!

Edit: Severely screwed up on overall success rate, the actual success rate is 0.066%, not 0.00066% as I previously stated, lol..

[Sephrick]

The gambler's approach: Trying to attempt it on a glove by glove basis, basically trying to do M2 > M3 > M4 > M5 on each glove separately. This is basically just pushing your luck and keeping your fingers crossed.

The hardcore player's approach: Making multiple gloves of a tier in one sitting, accumulating the successful melds and repeating the process. Example: Make 20 pairs of M2 gloves, then attempting to M3 on all of them at once, continuing this process until the final product is created.

How are these any different? Whether in bulk or one at a time either is no more "hardcore" than the other. It's the same odds either way.

The problem with trying to predict how many attempts it'd take is pointless as it is completely luck-based.

You can do it on your first set of gloves, or you're 10,000th. Until chances for success increase with successive attempts, each attempt is its own unique occurrence completely independent from the others.

[AdvancedWind]

It's meant to the hardcore gambler, really.

Hardcore players will have more time to gather more materia and try more melds, while a casual player will not be able to try as much. In the end, forbidden meld it is more of a mass gil / time sink than anything.

[Vanguard319]

Warning: Long post, no TL;DR.

Recently, I decided to start working on a pair of gloves with 5 materia in it. After doing some quick math it quickly became apparent how difficult (or perhaps just time/gil consuming) it really is.

As a hardcore player myself, I enjoy long term goals. So even after seeing the estimated probability of making these gloves, I still wish to complete this task. In a game where there really isn't much to do, this will keep me busy for quite a while. I've done relics in FFXI, so it's really just the same thing except for much lower reward.

However, the more I think about it, the more unrealistic this goal appears to be. Considering the amount of materia involved and the amount of materia available on any given server, it should take roughly 5 months to complete. Yes, I understand that M5 is not meant for everyone, but it seems this is meant more for hardcore gamblers and not hardcore players as we were told.

There are 2 ways to go about this goal.

The gambler's approach: Trying to attempt it on a glove by glove basis, basically trying to do M2 > M3 > M4 > M5 on each glove separately. This is basically just pushing your luck and keeping your fingers crossed.

The hardcore player's approach: Making multiple gloves of a tier in one sitting, accumulating the successful melds and repeating the process. Example: Make 20 pairs of M2 gloves, then attempting to M3 on all of them at once, continuing this process until the final product is created.

I've decided to go the 2nd route. I'm not much of a gambler myself, unless it's a game like Texas Hold Em that requires some thought and not just pure luck. I also believe hard work should be rewarded.

The biggest problem I'm seeing is the short supply of materia. Anyone who's completed relic weapons in FFXI will know what I mean. Overall, my goal is to make a pair of gloves with STR II + STR II + STR III + ATT III + ATT III. Keep in mind, this is just an upper-mid level 5-materia meld.

Based on the math, this will require 1500 gloves, 3000 STR II materia, 500 STR III materia, and 110 ATT III materia.

The percentages I used to get these numbers are ~33% for 2nd meld, ~20% for 3rd meld, ~10% for 4th meld and ~10% for 5th meld. This leads to an overall probability of 0.00066% The 5th meld percent I am not positive about, if anyone can confirm or disprove that the 4th and 5th melds have the same probability when using the same materia, please let me know. If not, it can drastically alter to overall probability of the final product. Also, if my math seems off, please feel free to correct me.

Now, onto the main problem. As I mentioned earlier, the biggest problem is the short supply of materia. Currently, I am getting STR II materia at a rate of about 20 a day. I shout for it every ~15 min in Uldah and often check the market wards. At this rate, it will take me roughly 5 months to get the 3000 I estimate I'll need.

However, for a game that is still in its infancy and has many level cap raises on the horizon (possibly as soon as 1.21), this all seems like a waste of time. By the time I finally finish the gloves, the cap will be raised, there will be better gloves, and there will likely also be higher tier / different materia.

As a hardcore player, I feel that the work I'd be putting into this personal quest of mine would simply be made obsolete as the time I invest into it passes. It all seems to contradict itself.

So, to the community, the dev team, and to Yoshi P, is this really meant for hardcore players as we were told? Or was it made for players who just like to push their luck?

I understand that the current materia system is still in its Beta phase and we will be seeing may adjustments on it in the future. What can be done to make goals like these completable in a reasonable time frame?

Some ideas of mine:

Higher level gear, when spiritbonded, can make multiple lower tier materia.

Materia sold by NPCs for either gil, company seals or guild marks (would have been a good use for marks).

Successful melds increase your affinity with the type and tier of materia you are using, increasing your probability of future melds when using the same type and tier of materia.

Faster spiritbond rates (If I'm not mistaken, this will be adjusted in 1.20)

Fixed probabilities for 3rd, 4th and 5th melds on a single item.

Enchanted items that increase melding probability rate for a period of time, possibly wearing off after a successful meld.

Items with a smaller materia tables, making it easier to obtain the materia you're aiming for (Currently, it seems the materia tables actually vary by slot, while each piece of gear for that slot just has different probabilities for the materia within the table).

Those are just off the top of my head.

How do you guys feel about this? What do you think could / should be adjusted? Do you think forbidden materia should be more luck based or rely more on dedication?

Sorry for the incredibly long post. I really don't think that there would be a good TL;DR version that would explain everything effectively. I'll still be working on the gloves even though I realize what an incredible amount of time is needed, which really won't be worth it in the end lol..

For those interested, I'll be updating my progress the following thread.

http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...will-buy-them!

Actually, there's a massive surplus of materia. instead of trying to meld multiple tier 4s, try melding lower grade materia for subsequent melds, you'll find the success rate to be higher as well.

[Viridiana]

Actually, there's a massive surplus of materia. instead of trying to meld multiple tier 4s, try melding lower grade materia for subsequent melds, you'll find the success rate to be higher as well.

Did you actually read the post? None of the materia he's trying to meld it tier IV. . .

[grandm]

it will never happen hardcore gamers, hardcore gamlbers, the extremely lucky, can't ever see any1 getting 1 piece of materia 5 gear. a whole set would be a miracle, the chances of making a materia 3 is pretty small (7% or something i hear) so god knows what the percent for a materia 4 is. and the amount of times you would need to make an item, just to lose it, it would be hard work getting to 3 materia, to push that one more and be lucky enough to get a 4 materia item, i would be very surprised to see some1 risk it for a 5 materia, and the amount of ppl that even have a 4 piece to try and get a 5 piece with is going to be so small i just never see it happening, maybe if we have this conversation in 10 years time then maybe lol

im guessing this view of mine will be very right or very wrong. OP i would love to hear if you ever make it

[MeowyWowie]

How are these any different? Whether in bulk or one at a time either is no more "hardcore" than the other. It's the same odds either way.

The problem with trying to predict how many attempts it'd take is pointless as it is completely luck-based.

You can do it on your first set of gloves, or you're 10,000th. Until chances for success increase with successive attempts, each attempt is its own unique occurrence completely independent from the others.

They're different because in the 2nd approach you're isolating the probabilities from each other, giving you more control over the outcome, in theory.

The gambler could make it in their first attempt, sure. But it can also take them well over 10,000 attempts to make the same thing.

The hardcore player on the other hand, will very likely stay within 10% of the estimated 1500 gloves required to make the final item.

My results so far, although it's still a very small sample, show exactly 33% success rate on M2 gloves (7/21). However, I broke 8 in a row, and also created 4 in succession.

Actually, there's a massive surplus of materia. instead of trying to meld multiple tier 4s, try melding lower grade materia for subsequent melds, you'll find the success rate to be higher as well.

Not using any T4s. The materia I'm having trouble with is low grade, T2 STR materia, of which I only get 20 a day on a good day.

[Sephrick]

They're different because in the 2nd approach you're isolating the probabilities from each other, giving you more control over the outcome, in theory.

The gambler could make it in their first attempt, sure. But it can also take them well over 10,000 attempts to make the same thing.

The hardcore player on the other hand, will very likely stay within 10% of the estimated 1500 gloves required to make the final item.

My results so far, although it's still a very small sample, show exactly 33% success rate on M2 gloves (7/21). However, I broke 8 in a row, and also created 4 in succession.

I guess I just still don't see the logic. Each attempt is independent from the last whether it was two minutes or two weeks ago. Doing them sooner will, of course, likely result in achieving the desired result sooner. But, that doesn't change the fact that it doesn't matter if you do 1500 of them. It could happen on the first one or the 1501st. It doesn't change the fact that how many are attempted I'd irrelevant.

It's like Valkurm Emporer in XI. Some people got drops back to back. Others went 200+ kills empty handed, but a random number generator like that doesn't account for successive attempts.

[Dragonheart]

luck, simply luck. And i personally hate these random systems... I'd prefer something like WoW (*cofff cofff*) ex. normal mode drop = 1 socket , very hm = 2 socket of the same item.

[Abauge_Goga]

Good post. My opinion is that the only thing that makes multiple melds "hardcore" is the gil/spiritbonding someone is willing to invest, which translates into time, which ultimatelly translates into how many hours a game someone plays, the more you do, more "hardcore" you can be.

Also, you need to have the right DOH levelled to be able to try these melds constantly because I don't think anyone of my buddies in the game would do more than a few melds at a time for me without getting bored.

All in all, you have a good question here and I am really hoping SE will take some, if not all your suggestions and use them.