I don't think we will see Varis dethroned by Elidibus and I don't think we will make an alliance with him to go to Garlemald. I think a much more likely set up is that whoever owned that glove we saw in 4.1 in the Garlean scene will be our point of contact and we will aid him in some fashion. I expect Garlemald may be a hotbed of factional intrigue so finding allies who aren't tied to these factions may require looking outside of Garlemald. That said, I don't rule of the possibility that Varis might end up sympathetic. I don't think he isn't responsible for the harsher government in Garlemald, cause that would make him seem pretty weak. I think the more likely situation is something akin to the third Fable game were you discover that the tyrant is being a tyrant because he feels it is the only way he can take the steps necessary to prepare his nation for a much more terrible threat. Perhaps as things fall apart we might end up working with him but I think things will have to go pear shaped before that happens.

Still, the fact he is so dismissive of his son and heir's death is somewhat of a negative.