a 12.5% chance you get a wildfire that will still be weaker than a Wildfire that uses prep time. In other words out of 10 wildfires, you'll average 1 wildfire an encounter where dream conditions come off. Unless you mean just procing a first shot and then reloading after that, which is a 50% chance. Versus just using your dag on prep time and getting a max potency wildfire every time.
2 ticks of flamethrower does not eat a GCD (as you weave this) and will probably not eat an AA, and even if it does you make that back up in the use of another cooldown during your wildfire window (85 AA damage versus a 230 cooldown). And if you're timing is on point and lag is not an issue, you can get 3 cooldowns in your WF, using BS after the third one that takes place in the .5 second window before explosion to bring you back up to 50. Even if we're taking your opener into consideration you would either do a later WF to get your CD323CD or you will do a mildfire which starts the WF at second step. In either case you would still burn up 2 ticks between GCDs...why you would use FT on single target ever
Reloading during Wildfire
And on the assumption that you ever reload in the middle of that wildfire you're potentially throwing a shot away on a cooldown depending on where you get that shot at, assuming you even cooldown at all. And even on the assumption that you WF out of the window your ammo will be married to every WF. To explain: because you used it for your 121, it means that if you don't drop a reload (which you shouldn't) or fish for procs during your opener (which you shouldn't) your reload will be married to the exact same spot in your rotation barring jumps from fight start to fight finish. This includes preloading 2-3 shots to force a 121 after you hotshot. Delaying it by a GCD adds up quickly and doubly so for QR because the more CD's you waste on random chance the more realistic losing the use of one during an entire fight becomes.
Contrast the 90 second wild/mild alternative:
Even if you flub up your ammo you can still afford to wait a GCD or two on your wild or mild and still hit max potency. What's more there's no encounter design where you're going to be able to recoup the pps that HW MCH would be doing in similar gear based solely on the 10 second advantage that is made irrelevant because of current encounter design. Susano will still give you (a) WF pre sword and 0 WF during it. Lakshmi will still give you 0 WF per add and no WF (that uses rDPS increases) pre confusion. Alte Roite does no mechanic which you have to respect. V2S will be flinging you up regardless, and V3S adds die too quickly for use of either WF.
Fishing for a proc for WF is potentially the most disastrous waste of time imaginable. And given the smaller window and smaller cooldown, can lead to use losing a QR usage, a WF usage, or both. Not to mention desyncing you from rDPS increases, including your own hypercharge.
Lastly:
Where are you even getting 20 from. Wildfire was a 15 second cooldown. I initially thought you meant 20 because you hot and lead before it. But that's twice you don't add that (being hot) to the 10 s required for SB WF.10 second window is still better than 20, even if both are clunky in some situations.