Incorrect on that. ARR is still separate. HW is now bundled with SB. So, still need to buy the HW+SB expansion for Au Ra. (and pretty sure they've removed most of the ARR+HW bundles, I'd imagine, since it should be ARR+SB now, which includes HW)

On not being able to log in after a lapsed subscription, once you've registered your account for the full game, it no longer qualifies for the free trial, so no access.

Also good to know about the recruit a friend campaign. Always thought it was a thing that needed to be applied before even making an account.