As it stands, the following people have "plot immunity":
CT: Cid, Biggs, Wedge, Nero(!)
Alex: Y'shtola, Cid, Biggs, Wedge
Coil: Alisaie, Alphinaud, Urianger
Warring Triad: Krile, Y'shtola, Urianger
This is not counting npcs whose only involvement in the story thus far is in those particular instances.
It was widely assumed that Estinien died in the lv50 drg quest aftermath, or so I was led to believe (I did the quest after completing HW, personally). That was handwaved with "no body, no death", but it's pretty clear from what happens within the drg questline (the way estinien reacts to you, the crock of bull alberich spouts at you around lv40 about their history, etc) that this quest is meant chronologically (whatever that means within the great time bubble) to take place before HW.
Quests seem to have a timeline that basically follows level progression, and that's the only thing we can be reasonably sure of.
However!
A lot of NPCs will change their dialogue based on what optional content you've done. I hope that Varis is at least minorly involved in SB, given the nature of the (apparent) main antagonist, but likely what will happen is that he'll get a throwaway line of dialogue based on whether or not you've witnessed the death you mention. Kinda sad to see such an important relationship reduced to that, but that's what everything else has been reduced to so far, no?
I feel like you can really tell, where the triad is concerned, both that they wanted it to be part of the msq and that they weren't given enough space to develop it fully - Zurvan and the quests surrounding him are all incredibly disappointing for a number of different reasons, not just the way one particular npc was handled.
As for Unuk, adorable murderchild that he is, given he lives in the Solar which is an instanced instance, I doubt his presence will cause any issues unless Minfilia teleports back in and yells "SYKE" in Thancred's face.
I sort of went all over the shop there, but it tl'dr's down to this:
1. Quests have an approximate timeline within the story,
2. If you don't do them within the expected timeline, nobody acts like it did happen,
3. Because they can be done whenever, key NPCs have to stay alive at all times, regardless of whatever 'expected' chronology was mapped out by the writers,
4. Optional content can never include anything meaningful that can't be distilled to one line or so of dialogue, unless any references to said content is entirely non-voiced, in which case maybe they'll get two whole lines.
The time bubble is a problem. But it exists for a reason, that being "the dragonsong war can't be over for new players", or some other bs that can't be easily solved by a story-based timeline, evolving instances client-side (see: Alex) or other things that they could implement, but choose not to.
I'm by no means an expert, most of what I know I learned from Anonymoose in the lore forums, but basically you're SOL if you want Unuk or Regula to mean anything in SB, or for optional content to ever have an ACTUAL impact. (Or be made mandatory.)
I don't see why this is an issue. If folk get confused about who an NPC is or whatever, they can ask for an explanation, look it up online, or go back and do the appropriate content... just like any other MMO. xD
I think making MORE content required to progress to the next expac is the exact opposite of what they should be doing.
Your understand about how the time bubbles and plot immunity work is flawed.
Time is bubbled such that all content same level happens concurrently and patch/expansion happens within that patch/expansion's timebubble. All content the same level happens roughly at the same time no matter what level it is and what order you complete content in.
The current time bubbles are the following (each set of () marks a bubble):
(2.0 1 to 50)(2.0 endgame)(2.1)(2.2)(2.3)(2.4)(2.5)(3.0 Drk/Ast/Mch 30 to 50)(3.0 51 to 60)(3.0 endgame)(3.1)(3.2)(3.3)(3.4)(3.5)
When 4.0 is released, The RDM and SAM unlock quests will be added to the 2.0 endgame bubble and their 51 to 60 quests will be added to the 3.0 51 to 60 bubble.
Only the npcs needed to start the sidequests have plot armor. All others can be killed as the previous sidequests they were part of have been bubbled. Urianger and Unukalhai both have plot armor as they are the npcs who start various questlines.
Unukalhai can appear in any possible 4.0+ content. The only thing will be the existence of a variable cutscene to introduce him to the main story, same as how Estinien was introduced in HW.
this and keep in mind palace of the dead is a good one to show they already bypassed conflict. Basically something you can do sooner (level 17) happens after you do something at level 50 and that something is not even in the MSQ.I don't see why this is an issue. If folk get confused about who an NPC is or whatever, they can ask for an explanation, look it up online, or go back and do the appropriate content... just like any other MMO. xD
I think making MORE content required to progress to the next expac is the exact opposite of what they should be doing.


I don't see it being required. When HW came out there were actually a few quests that would be contradicted by the events (Most notably the DRG and CUL questlines). Canonically, all ARR stuff occurs before HW, and the same will likely hold true for SB.


I think for storyline purposes, they should have made the Warring Triad sidequests mandatory in a similar fashion they made Ifrit, Garuda, and Titan Hard mandatory to progress through the story.
In 3.0, King Thordan siphoned some of the Warring Triad's power to use Ultimate End. As a result, it weakened the seal on the triad.
In 3.1, Elidibus mentioned in the main story about the triad not being able to change the course of events to come.
During 3.2-3.4, Regula tried to find methods to harness the power of the Triad using the Allagan technology he could find at ARF. Keep in mind that Regula was also a main story character in 3.0 and significant figure representing the empire in this storyline.
In 3.5, Zurvan killed off Regula. There might be consequences resulting from Regula's death, especially with how close Regula is to the current emperor of Garlemald.
My Current Characters:
Mikeru Takeuchi: http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/character/14812205/
Ekkusu Volnutt: http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/character/8909941/
Rokku Sigma: http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/character/5714962/
"Break a warrior's body, and he will thirst for vengeance. Break his spirit, and he will clamor for peace. Judge my methods distasteful if you will - but know that I seek to end this conflict, not prolong it." - Yadovv Gah, Final Fantasy XIV A Realm Reborn

Same thing during before the fall when Nanamo dies but you could still interact with her during the culinarian quest.
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