Let's be honest about the future of FFXIV

[ShepardG]

Alright, as a die-hard FF fan (like i paid 80$ for the card board box that FF1 for the NES came in) I felt it was my duty to bring this situation and current state of this game to the light.

The following is my opinion as well as a rough estimation of current player base as well as future possible directions this game could head, and their suspected out come.

This is not going to be pretty, nor is it going to garner me any friends on these forums, but the truth of this situation needs to be addressed from a practical stand point, as well as a "come to terms" view point to a lot of other fans of the Final Fantasy series, as well as XIV.

The truth is that Square Enix is a business and they make their money by providing entertainment to as many people as possible. As it stands currently, XIV is not falling in line with this ideal.

I roughly estimate that in an avg month, FFXIV sees roughly 20-35 thousand subscribers log in on a regular basis, I.E. once every 2-4 days. If the game were to go pay-to-play currently, and every single one of those 35k players subscribed, and they each had 2 retainers, your looking at 525,000 US dollars in monthly subscriptions.

That isn't a successful business venture by any stretch of the means. And I feel that I guestimated those numbers fairly high.

Currently the game is not pay-to-play, because the state of it is still well away from where it needs to be. The UI lag, the lack of regional servers, the ill designed economic system, along with the minimal amount of End game content all fall well behind what a Video game player in 2011-12 have come to expect.

These problems have been addressed multiple times in the past year since initial release, and honestly, based on the past years rate of changes, will still be far behind what most video game players have come to expect from a game from a major publisher like SE. If the previous year is any indication of the next year, a release for the PS3 in 2012 would be a nail in the coffin for XIV.

So, assuming the above, (and again i'll remind you that this is mainly my opinions, based on a large number of my assumptions) we can look to 2013 before a PS3 release. That is....a long time from now.
Assuming that SE doesn't start charging to play until the game is ready for PS3 release, that's almost a year and a half until they can start to turn a profit with this game.

This game stands at a crossroads and it can continue down only one of the paths. The first:
The game continues as it has the past 12 months, patch, followed by fix, followed by patch, followed by fix, followed by patch, etc. Never attracting new players(1) in any capacity to bring about a profitable turn around, yet possibly attracting and keeping enough "die-hard" FF fans engaged enough that for the next 2-3 years, the game finally reaches a point where it generates enough money to break even, and after a short time, SE decides to pull the plug due to lack of interest. 2-3 years from now, the game would be shut down.

The second:
(and this is, again, IMO, the only option they have)
Some time in the first half of 2012 (honestly the sooner the better), they pull the game servers down, and shut the game down entirely. They rebuild the following aspects from the ground up: User Interface, Server-to-client communication, Server-to-server communication, and entire economic model. The graphics can stay, the story/lore can stay, the music (which is arguably the best I've heard in a video game in the past 2-3 years) can stay, but of course, re-do them to match the flow of a more smoother flowing type of game.
And completely reboot the player's accounts, so that when the servers come back up, everyone can start back over together.

A) The server reboot has a potential to cause some customer loss, but honestly of the folks who have played XIV for the past year, you might lose 5-10% of them. The rest have already proven they're commitment to the FF name.
B) It's already been shown that new players don't want to enter into a game with a broken economy where 1% of the population control 99% of the wealth (look at america, lots of folks aren't happy with that in RL, they definitively aren't going to put up with it in a game)

So the outcome of a game shutdown, and reboot can go one of two ways
1) the reboot fails, the bad press from the failed initial launch can't be shed, the folks who return aren't numerous enough to provide a break even/ profit scenario, and the close the game down for good in 9-12 months (would be late 2013 when this happens)
2)
(and this is the outcome i hope and pray for)
The reboot works. The game magazines/websites re-review the re-launch and find the UI, the Graphics, the Sound, the Lore, the Imagination to be so engrossing that their reviews sound unanimously like "if you've ever dreamed a fantasy, you must give FFXIV another shot" The PS3 and PC re-launch have 500,000 subscribers that month, the 2nd month after launch that number is over 1 mil, 2-3 months after launch 50% of the player base has reached cap and beg for new stories, and new content, and the Dev team is READY, they release the first major patch 4 months after re-launch and demonstrate their capacity to provide for the customers, further drawing more skeptics away from whatever game they've been playing.

I know, sounds a bit silly, but I honestly feel that's really the only realistic scenarios we have to look forward to at this point.
1) Fail in 3-4 years in mediocrity
2a) Fail in 9-14 months, saving everyone involved (SE, Developers,players) time/money
2b) Risk everything to gain everything...and succeed.

Yeah i know, Wall of text, your an idiot, get a job to level 50 until then shut up, etc.
If you haven't ran these scenarios through in your mind after reading this post, and seen the obvious truths that the opinions and assumptions are based on, then please just let this thread fall into obscurity or post your counter argument. If you felt like this might be right please, voice your opinion on the situation.

We the players have been give these forums by the developers to influence the future of the thing we love and enjoy. It's not quite a democracy but it's close to one, and if these message boards are our votes, please cast them in for the good of the game and the future of the Final Fantasy games.

[Aion]

tl;dr I'll have fun while it lasts

[Starlord]

I recommend to.. Chill.... Relax... and Enjoy the game....

Simple Right? =)

[JackDaniels]

Want some McCries with that. Jk I'm just practicing to be PrettyPrincess for Halloween :P

[EmeraldHill]

Alright, as a die-hard FF fan (like i paid 80$ for the card board box that FF1 for the NES came in) I felt it was my duty to bring this situation and current state of this game to the light.

I stopped reading there.

[Stockapotapoulos]

I'm not really concerned about the future of Final Fantasy XIV; I'm enjoying it now. Enjoy it while it's here.

[Tenshi]

Over the past year, I feel like I've got my money's worth.

10 hours/week x 52 = 520 hours

$60 divided by 520 hours = 11 cents an hour

I know the game is flawed and mistakes have been made, but I think it's on a good path currently. And it's tough to be too hard on a game that I've payed 11 cents an hour to play.

[ShepardG]

tl;dr I'll have fun while it lasts

And that's fine, however, I want it to last as long as it possibly can, as well as provide myself with entertainment. In it's current state, it doesn't do that, and i'm not the only one who feels this way, but honestly most of them have left the game behind.

I recommend to.. Chill.... Relax... and Enjoy the game....

Simple Right? =)

Well yeah, but Myself, the Share holders of SE, the VAST majority of folks who have left the game behind, the developers who probably work way more than they should have too trying to correct this aren't enjoying the game. It's fine to sit back and take a relaxed stance if your currently enjoying what your doing in the game, but for the ammount of players to make this game profitable they aren't enjoying themselves, and have since moved on.

I stopped reading there.

Yeah, I guess i shouldn't have a hobby? I mean folks pay thousands of dollars for misprinted stamps, but woooah if you enjoy the story,art,music of a game and would like to have some nostaligia.
But you were probably just "kidding" right? I mean, nobody could really go around judging other people on their hobbies... and most definitely they couldn't do that on a video game forum....

I'm not really concerned about the future of Final Fantasy XIV; I'm enjoying it now. Enjoy it while it's here.

I'm not OVERLY concerned about the future of XIV, however, I do have concerns about it, nothing that keeps me up at night or causes irritable bowel syndrome or nervous twitches, but enough concern that I can voice my opinions and ideas on a forum dedicated to fan's of the game.

[Adol]

First post / low level / no valid opinions bla bla bla

I'm kidding, though there'll probably be people who are actually serious about saying such things.

In an ideal world (one in which I had never played the game at launch and, instead, found the game at a later stage where constant changes, fixes and lack of engaging content were less apparent) I would have hoped they would risk the pull down and then reboot. In fact I wished they had done this from the very beginning but that is neither here nor there.

I, personally, feel that the chances of servers being taken down for extended development time are unlikely. You state that 5-10% of the game's players would be lost in the event they did take the servers down but something tells me that figure will be a lot larger than you may think. You have to take in to account the constant disgruntlement of the players when something is changed to something they do not like and the fact that new players have come to see a game change so rapidly they no longer know what they're playing anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if many people who joined in 1.18 are now feeling detatched from the game somewhat. This unhappiness and detatchment would then be amplified by news of an indefinite server takedown.

5-10% seems too small if you ask me.

The producer himself has stated we will not lose our characters and, while not explicitly stated, thus neither would our characters' possessions be lost. This would, I assume, include gil. Therefore the problems you highlighted of a one-sided economy would not be changed after a server takedown and reboot.

The risks they would have to take to carry this out are too great and could potentially damage the brand and the company even further than the game's original launch did.

You are right in saying that, if hypothetically it was to all work after the reboot and servers come back online booming with new players and a hopeful new outlook, then the game could possibly become extremely successful and wipe any negative sentiments anyone had towards it previously. However, the reality seems to be tending towards a long road where the game is up and running for people to constantly play (read: "test") whilst the development team works hard to improve the experience as it goes along. IMO, taking the servers down could be the worst thing they could ever do to not only the game, the brand or company, but also the players who have spent money on an initial purchase (I and of course many others bought the CE at launch) and have spent the time to be patient with the game. Heck, some people actually love the game and have made long lasting friendships on it. For some people the game may even be their life.

I do not think you are wrong in voicing the notion that SE's only chance of making the game successful is to bring it down first, in fact it's quite commendable saying things on a forum such as this, but I feel the damage it will do will be irrecoverable.

Wall 'o text duels.
Now to find out whether any of what I've just typed makes any sense to anyone at nearly 4am.

[ShepardG]

Wall 'o text duels.

I clicked like, because I thought it was a well thought out response. ^^ even if I disagree with some of the points you make.

I will respond in kind tommorow as it is definetly my bed time, but I will think on what you said.