The Griffin

[Zorzi]

Would you really argue that Henry Ducard / Ra's al Ghul could have survived at the end of Batman Begins?

Ra's al Ghul is known for his Lazarus Pits... his villain shtick is always coming back from the dead and living eternally.

Don't get me wrong I agree with you but I found your example of a dead villain pretty funny.

[Cilia]

I know. That was just the first "hero escapes life and death situation, villain doesn't and despite lack of proof is almost beyond a shadow of a doubt dead" that came to mind.

Anyway, I digress. Iffin' I'mma get chastised for my personality flaws, I'll just... jump out now before I get hit with the banhammer again. I admit I'm stubborn to a fault, sometimes more acerbic and sarcastic than I should be, and take this probably quite a bit more seriously than I should. But hey, detective work.

I suppose saying "This is the last thing I'm saying." is kind of... ironic.

[Belhi]

I don't think its Gaius. More to the point, I don't want Gaius to be dragged out, potentially ruining the character. I suspect most diehard Gaius fans would like to see him come back and perhaps have some kind of redemption, however I think that its almost certain that the Griffin will be a villain in 4.0 and probably end much the same way Gaius did the first time. People cutting deals with Ascians almost never end well.

In Ala Mhigo we are going to see two extremes. We are going to see the ruthlessness of Garlemald but we will also see enraged Ala Mhigians willing to go to any lengths, regardless how foolish, reckless or immoral, to secure their victory. Lets remember the Masks allied with the Corpse Brigade and those lot have been doing some pretty bad stuff, even to the other Ala Mhigan refugees. They don't seem that fussy about who they pick as allies.

[RobinMalvin]

If I may be so blunt, the whole Gaius idea has felt like wishful thinking from the first...

I guess the whole idea "Griffin is Gaius" just started when people noted the pose the Griffin made during his speech.





Bonus

Sure.... As if the girl hasn't got enough already....

snip

"To know your enemy, you must become your enemy," said Sun Tzu. Your way to imagine Gaius' thoughts is certainly convincing and I can really picture that in my head. That said, I have to pinpoint some flaws on it:

The sight of this would-be Emperor, eagerly grasping for the power to enslave primals - to make use what aught be destroyed. To welcome what you sought to see the world rid of.

Only that Gaius certainly was doing what Varis is exactly doing; capturing the primals for their power. Gaius, like Varis, also realized that simply killing the beastmen's primals will not stop them from resummoning their gods. Both came to conclusion that Allagan's method to capture the primals thus preventing them from being summoned again is the most effective way to end the plague. In addition, they're willing to mass genocide the beast tribes to prevent any new summoning attempts of new primals.

And while I don't remember there's any mention to Gaius' relationship to the current emperor, the fact that both of them were against Meteor project can imply that they're of the same mind. Since Varis is quite a renowned military leader like Gaius, I have trouble to picture Gaius opposing his ascension; if anything, he'd be glad to come serve under him, both share the same goal to conquer Eorzea not destroy it, even if he may get some punishment for his rash actions before.

I'm still not convinced that the Griffin is Ilberd. He and the Braves are fugitives because of his actions, something that I doubt the Braves were happy about; they betrayed the Scions because promise of coins, not for some dreams to liberate Ala Mhigo. I imagine he'd have his hands full dealing with them, and it'd take even more effort to persuade them to join his cause, or get away from them.

And Ilbert can't be the only one who would be against working with Scions. I can imagine half of Ala Mhigan refugees hate the Scions, after we chose to help and give sanctuary to the Dhoman refugees who just arrived 5 minutes while they have been seeking help for years. To them, the Scions are no different than the rest of Eorzea who just ignore their plights and care more with their own politics.

[Anonymoose]

I guess the whole idea "Griffin is Gaius" just started when people noted the pose the Griffin made during his speech.

I can only speak for myself, assuming Team Suggesting It Might Be Gaius even goes beyond me. But for me it was thinking, [Huh, they sure use a lot of fire imagery for the Griffin.] as the guy giving out the Shepherd's stuff said, "I heard he's pretty scarred and Garlemald seems to really have it out for him." That made me do a double take and squint at my screen. Could the True Griffin be taking orders himself?

I don't even think it's Gaius (as in, I'm not proposing we accept it). I won't say, "I told you so!"; I'll laugh if someone does to me.

The nuances just seem to have a wider spread, so to speak, than the heavy-handed Ilberd hints, and if they have deeper meaning (foreshadows hidden in "meaningless" rumor), it interestingly aligns with a different fallen foe. I only spoke up because of the eyes of Nidhogg and the community's inkling that they might be used to power Omega. It sets my piqued paranoia aflutter. Who could bridge the Griffin to Nero? Who could make Nero behave as if he'd reverted from his character development in the Crystal Tower arc? Why is all of this looking backwards, with fire imagery...?

Judging by the accidental - but thorough - derailing of the thread, I should have kept it to myself for the time being, lol.

That said, I have to pinpoint some flaws on it

But seeing as I can't unring that bell, anyway...!

Only that Gaius certainly was doing what Varis is exactly doing; capturing the primals for their power. <...> Both came to conclusion that Allagan's method to capture the primals thus preventing them from being summoned again is the most effective way to end the plague. In addition, they're willing to mass genocide the beast tribes to prevent any new summoning attempts of new primals.

Well struck! Gaius explicitly says that he's using the power of the eikons, and both he and Varis stress the importance of capturing them in a way that breaks the cycle of rebirth. I went digging through my annotated transcripts for any reason to not entirely abandon this angle of the tension between them (and admittedly because I was curious how I'd arrived at the assumption in the first place) and I found but one thing: a curious choice of words.

When Gaius and co. refer to the power of Ultima, they say they will "cast down" the eikons and "rid Eorzea" of them forever. They seem confident that they can capture any primals that have been summoned and purge the realm of any who would summon them again before Ultima has spent that energy. The goal here is annihilation, and they are relying on the feedback loop to accomplish it.

When you come across Varis and co. in the Sea of Clouds, he uses oddly different terminology. The emperor seeks the Allagan secret of "binding the eikons to their will", to "bring them to heel". Regula would "capture the eikons alive" and see them "shackled". Varis seems to have more utilitarian (and dangerously arrogant) ideas. The difference is small, but one avoids Allag's mistake, the other repeats it.

But it proves nothing, and it points out another tier in the house of cards. Point: Robin!

And while I don't remember there's any mention to Gaius' relationship to the current emperor, the fact that both of them were against Meteor project can imply that they're of the same mind. Since Varis is quite a renowned military leader like Gaius, I have trouble to picture Gaius opposing his ascension; if anything, he'd be glad to come serve under him, both share the same goal to conquer Eorzea not destroy it, even if he may get some punishment for his rash actions before.

Now this angle I can account for.

Meteor would have reduced Eorzea to ash. The Emperor openly supported Meteor; Gaius openly opposed it; Varis (EDIT: vocally opposed it, but) secretly worked to undermine it. Gaius openly supported the Emperor's rule; Varis secretly opposed it and laid clandestine foundations to subvert it. Varis and Gaius saw eye-to-eye on a two crucial issues. [1] Eorzea should be rightfully conquered, with only as much destruction as is merited to bring about order. [2] The invasion of Eorzea must be precisely timed due to the causal relationship between desperation and primal strength.

When Gaius "found" Ultima, he moved immediately, by the time the High Legatus (Varis) recognized the need to bring the Black Wolf to heel, he'd already slipped his leash. It might even have been more purposeful than that; if Gaius mistrusted the royal family aside from the rightful crown prince (mysteriously dead), he might try to seize power for himself once he realized that there was no hope that Solus, or his will, would survive.

For the world of man to mean anything, man must own the world. To this end, he hath fought ever to raise himself through conflict─to grow rich through conquest. And when the dust of battle settles, it is ever the strong who dictate the fate of the weak. <...> Only a man of power can rightly steer the course of civilization. And in this land of creeping mendacity, that one truth will prove its salvation.

Come, champion of Eorzea, face me! Your defeat shall serve as proof of my readiness to rule!

Anyroad, Gaius activated a cell of Garlean sleeper agents in Eorzea (The Ivy), and with their aid, he was able to spring up castrums in strategic locations without serious challenge. However, the Ivy was loyal only to herself; she stalled the Eorzean Alliance on behalf of the XIVth, then sold the intelligence on the XIVth back to a shadow faction of the Alliance to prolong the conflict and reap the profits. In the end, Varis not only cut the rogue legion loose to fend for themselves, but paid the Ivy to sabotage the Eorzean campaign. He fed Gaius to the Alliance while seizing the Emperor's throne for himself ... and we still don't know how the rightful crown prince conveniently died and let that happen.

I can see where all of that might have hit a nerve.

I'm still not convinced that the Griffin is Ilberd. He and the Braves are fugitives because of his actions, something that I doubt the Braves were happy about; they betrayed the Scions because promise of coins, not for some dreams to liberate Ala Mhigo. I imagine he'd have his hands full dealing with them, and it'd take even more effort to persuade them to join his cause, or get away from them.

Sweet, merciful Nymeia,we haven't all entirely forgotten about Not-Gaius! I don't think it fully registered with me until now that the Crystal Braves were still technically a unit when last seen spiraling out of Lolorito's control. I could make either case, really. You've already made a good case for the one, of course.

The other would be that, in Ilberd's last scene, he seems to be declaring a fresh start. He says he's spent twenty years in servitude and earned nothing, that the Alliance, Scions, and Braves - like everyone else - make pawns of all, while he would now be free. He only has Laurentius and Yuyuhase, and neither seem to have an issue with his "For Ala Mhigo!" speech; I suppose because they've burned all their bridges and have nowhere else to go.

[RobinMalvin]

Truth be told, I caught wind of some people speculating if the Griffin might be Gaius, or someone related to him in anyway, after they launched the trailer, due to the pose. So yes, that theory has been around for quite some time, long before your derailing xD.

Let me out of topic for a bit, and correct you again that Varis was open with his objection against the Meteor project. Gaius seems to be the one who secretly opposed it, with all his backstabbing back then.

The other would be that, in Ilberd's last scene, he seems to be declaring a fresh start. He says he's spent twentymany years in servitude and earned nothing, that the Alliance, Scions, and Braves - like everyone else - make pawns of all, while he would now be free. He only has Laurentius and Yuyuhase, and neither seem to have an issue with his "For Ala Mhigo!" speech; I suppose because they've burned all their bridges and have nowhere else to go.

I thought of this too, but seeing Laurentius'<!!!> character, I doubt he'd just follow Ilberd because he's burned the bridges. He, Yuyuhase, and the rest of Braves could still sell Ilberd to authority in order to gain some leniency, since Ilberd is the mastermind around. I just speculate that their move to execute Raubahn was because Ilberd lied to them, that it was all Lolorito's orders; for all they knew, they were still in Lolorito's employ, only to find that their master cut their contract and them got branded international criminals. Ilberd would have a lot to answer to them.

Then again, this guy can set his sword in flame and knock out a room full of people so... <shrug>

[PArcher]

It's also possible none of the former Braves are following ilberd anymore. Last we see of them was in Halitali, which is probably a month or three in game time. A lot could have happened between then and now.

[Anonymoose]

Let me out of topic for a bit, and correct you again that Varis was open with his objection against the Meteor project. Gaius seems to be the one who secretly opposed it, with all his backstabbing back then.

I think a distinction just needs to be made between voice and action, in which case "secretly opposed" is still inadequate, I agree.

First, a citation to match your own:

We believe a number of high-ranking figures within the royal household were against the decision, but that they knew better than to oppose the Emperor openly. Of course, this didn't prevent them from making clandestine provisions, in which Roaille played a part.

A man who outranks van Baelsar, yet opposed the late emperor's decision to annihilate Eorzea... This could only be the former high legatus of the Garlean Army, now known as Emperor Varis zos Galvus.

A rephrasing: The Emperor supported Meteor and ordered that it be carried out. Gaius openly opposed it, but follows the orders. Varis vocally disagreed with it, but secretly attempted to undermine it. Publicly the two appeared similar, in reality they were not.

Gaius seems to be the one who secretly opposed it, with all his backstabbing back then.

To follow the above - talk versus action in terms of opposition - Gaius made his feelings on the matter plain; the Emperor just no longer cared what he thought of Meteor or Darnus. Gaius also told Darnus to his face that his plan was depraved and begged him to abandon it multiple times (which you'd assume Nael would have told Galvus, anyway). But Gaius followed every order he was given up until he was sure that Darnus was himself disloyal to the Emperor and deceiving him. In such a case, defying a direct order was following the spirit of Galvus' rule - which Varis undermined throughout, regardless of Nael's intentions, and ultimately later seized.

I doubt he'd just follow Ilberd because he's burned the bridges. <...> I just speculate that their move to execute Raubahn was because Ilberd lied to them, that it was all Lolorito's orders

Can it not be a bit of each? Ilberd sets the 3rd on you while saying "There! The sultanta's assassins!", which proves he was definitely misleading at least some of them. But the two that escape with him - Yuyuhase and Laurentius - shout "Whatever it takes to survive!" and "I'm no hero!" while you fight them, express no surprise at any of the revelations, and follow Ilberd to "be free" despite the charade clearly being over.

[Mieck]

Regarding the Excerpts from the diaries of G. van Baelsar (aged 43 1/3rd) as told to A.Moose
(disclaimer: age speculative)

As an exercise in character roleplaying, it's a great read, Moose!
I can see the logic in arguing his motivations all the way up to the point he departs the story, but I won't be joining the calls for him being the Griffin or close to the Griffin.

But...
Maybe, just maybe... he will be involved in 4.0...

From a purely practical standpoint, the story will have to make reference to him if we're heading to Ala Mhigo. As the previous viceroy, and one of some twenty years standing, he will have left his indelible impression on the city. That's unavoidable.

Now. Left turn into thickets of wildest guesswork. It is quite rambling.
If, and I stress if, he is still out there, this is the moment to bring him back. The following pieces are back in play; the Ala Mihgan Resistance, the eyes of Nidhogg, and, crucially I think, Nero.

I recently replayed the Main Story Quest in and around the sections in Little Solace and The Thousand Maws of Toto-rak. A line of Nero's dialogue from the quest "Into the Beast's Maw" stood out.
For context, the text is in the Echo, and it is said immediately after the Garlean troops depart, leaving Nero on his own in Little Solace. I may be reading more into this, and I haven't checked out the text compared to the other three languages, but it is as follows;

...What was it you always said? Ah, yes: "Though it mean bringing down the very heavens, who shall challenge the limits of possibility if not we?" In that alone were you right... Garlond.
But your star is long fallen, while mine doth begin to rise. And it shall burn so bright - so bright that Lord van Baelsar's ultimate weapon will seem a mere candle beside it! Ahahahaha!

Now, I know the first part relates to things we have already seen and done (Dalamud / his rivalry with Cid, etc) but the Loc team have a habit of trying to cram in as many multiple meanings into a piece of text as they can (see recent case in point, the MSQ Shadows of the First, which dealt with the trip to the First Mountain and a confrontation with the Shadows (WoDs) from the First (Shard)).

The last part... there is so much to play with here.
His star shall burn so bright...
Ultima Weapon will seem a mere candle next to whatever Nero had in mind.

Yes, it refers to his wish for greatness, particularly as it relates to Cid. But he also sees himself above his then-master, the (now dearly departed?) Legatus of the XIVth Legion.
And mentions of stars and ultimate weapons... We're well versed in Sabik's location in the firmament.

Essentially, my thought is that this snippet is loaded with foreshadowing - some of which we have had at the end of 2.0, but the rest of which is only just starting to play out. Given the way the English text is presented, I'm sure there's other pieces out there that were set up very early that are only just starting to come out.

If the esteemed Mr van Baelsar is still kicking about Eorzea (or Hydaelyn at large), would he be allied to any of these players? I could see circumstances where he would agree to throw his lot in with Nero, but I think Nero's a loner in this plot. I'm less convinced he would align himself with the Masks, though the False Griffin's line about the new viceroy in Ala Mihgo being "not a fraction as merciful", does seem out of place in that speech to the faithful. The crowd do not react to that statement, though they do when he calls them, earlier in the speech, "our foes in the north".

So if... if... he is out there, I think he would be working in some fashion against the new viceroy (as Moose speculated), but possibly from his own angle.

[Cilia]

Not sure if many traitorous Braves stayed on with Ilberd after losing backing of Lolorito. Sounds like only Yuyuhase and Laurentius, maybe, judging on how close to Ilberd they were in Halatali.

Rest may have become footpads. Or stayed on and helped with organization of Masks, believing that would help give somewhere to go. Neatly fixes hole people keep poking at, "How get so organized so fast?" No way to know for sure.