The Griffin

[Ametrine]

The issue is there is so much about dragon physiology that just don't know. They follow completely different rules on most fronts from life created on Hydaelyn, and we have contradictory details from one dragon type to another.

Like, the only dragons we can confirm follow the eye rules are the First Brood, and only one do we know died via her brutal murder.

Nidhogg was almost dead when his eyes were ripped from him, but Hreasvelgr gave up one of his eyes to sustain his brother, so would Nidhogg have whithered away if Hreasvelgr hadn't saved him? Would his consciousness stayed alive in his eyes then? Or could he control the eyes from a distance due to Hreasvelgr's power?

We don't know how Bahamut died exactly beyond it being against the Allag.

[Ametrine]

And what about Midgardsormr? He's never made any mention on the eyes, had pretty insane levels of power as what amounts to a ghost, and it rapidly regrowing himself via a self induced rebirth.

Then it get's further complicated with aevis basically being people made dragon and dragons having wildly different physical features apparently depending on power verses any genetic variables.

Aliens, man.

[myahele]

It does make me wonder if "Heart of Sabik" truly is the heart of a person/entity named Sabik and who's heart is now being used by the Asciens. Much like how the Eyes of Nidhogg are now tools for Elidibus' machinations.

[Anonymoose]

It does make me wonder if "Heart of Sabik" truly is the heart of a person/entity named Sabik

Could be! I've been too focused on the obvious to consider alternative hypotheses; Sabik (from an Arabic root meaning "former; previous") is at the "heart" of Ophiuchus, the thirteenth constellation, associated with Zodiark himself. I've been assuming that it was perhaps "Black Auracite" or some other manifestation of the franchise "holy stone" somehow strongly tied to Zodiark. But it could be otherwise.

I think the thing that keeps the blinders on me is that Ophiuchus is the Serpent Bearer, holding in his grasp the constellation of Serpens, which contains the star Unukalhai. The boy bearing the same name is all-but-confirmed to be controlled by Elidibus, who is Zodiark's emissary and brings it all full circle.

Though it still doesn't say Sabik is not a unique thing (aside from that it contains Zodiark's power).

[Rocl]

ARE WE STILL POSTING CRACKPOT GRIFFIN THEORIES AND TRYING TO MAKE IT NOT BE ILBERD?

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Ilberd.
If I was a Garlean fan, I'd bet on Gaius.
If I was sympathetic to the plight of the Ala Mhigans, I'd bet on ... Warburton.

YEAH. YOU HEARD ME. MINFILIA'S DAD. (It should be noted this is her assumed biological father and not related to her adoptive mother F'hlaminn.)

Now you may not know me, but I loved Ul'dah's 1.0 scenario. It introduced us to a young Minfilia, going by her true name of Ascilia, and a complicated plot of double agents in the Garlean forces. Corguevais, seemingly sympathetic to the would-be Syndicate, but actually working for Garlemald to destabilize Ul'dah's government and Warburton, thought to be a Garlean spy but actually loyal to Ala Mhigo coming to Ul'dah to deliver the resistance the Empire's research on Primals. The twisted plots and machinations of a younger Lolorito seeking to secure his hold on both his fortune and power. Thancred barely out of his swaddling bluffing his way through the Platinum Mirage and wooing women and other malarkey.

Key points we know about the Griffin:
Doesn't want to work with Scions
Is working with Elidibus
Has a bone to pick
Wants to reclaim Ala Mhigo

Key points we know about Warburton:
Daughter, now 'deceased', founded the Scions
Probably had some vague knowledge of Ascians through his stolen Primal research
Is probably mad about a lot of stuff
Has worked to reclaim Ala Mhigo in the past

A big question has always been "Why is Ilberd stupid enough to work with the Ascians? Like, he should know better, serving under Alphinaud." and "How is Nero gonna join up with the Ala Mhigan Resistance or vice versa? That's dumb as hell."

These are good questions and ones I look forward to having answered in the coming year(s), but hear me out:

Warburton (whose body was never displayed after Niellefresne opens his coffins to an "No... This cannot be...") would probably want little to do with the Scions and his daughter, especially if his status as a double agent was known within Garlemald. That'd be just putting them in even more danger, eh? And if his status as a double agent was an unknown it'd be mighty suspicious if he had been hanging around them!

Furthermore, since the Ascians came to him, he likely knows of Minfilia's fate as Emissary, or before that Word of the Mother. That is, that Hydaelyn had taken Minfilia's mortal form from her as a means of a little energy snack. I can't imagine this would invoke the most endearing of thoughts in her father all things considered.

He's Ala Mhigan and has always worked with the resistance. If his identity was known throughout the land, you can bet a Garlean Legion would descend upon him for his treasonous crimes against the Empire. Given his entrenchment in the Garlean Intelligence field, like as not him and Nero have some tenuous connection; "frumentarium sees all" and what-not. Perhaps Warburton is playing quadruple agent against everyone to visit grievous devastation upon the Empire in repayment for the King of Ruin and subsequent Imperial invasion.

tl;dr- Warburton's mad Hydaelyn ate his daughter, wants his homeland back, and will do whatever it takes to at least see that, given he gave up his relationship with his daughter in attempt to protect her until they could return to Ala Mhigo.

Like most of my posts, I rambled on a bit and got stuck rewatching cutscenes rather than finishing my thoughts. This is incredibly darksteel tinfoil hattery or whathaveyou but c'mon we could use an unexpected twist, eh? Everything points to A, so it's gotta be J.

Further fun fact: there was a horn similar to the one Travanchet bequeathed Mide in the Ul'dah 1.0 scenario as well, though I think Corguevais last had it and he's MIA

[Cilia]

No? I think it's been fairly proven that every slagging piece of evidence besides rumors spread by the inhabitants of Little Ala Mhigo point to Ilberd... and rumors don't really count as evidence...

[Ramesses]

Ahhhhh crap... as always, I'm late again to the discussion party. I ran into Moose online on the server last night and promised I would chime in... but dang, you guys are incredible at deciphering this Griffin identity issue. Eight solid pages already... bloody well done.

My two cents:

The obvious:
I initially went with the notion that it could very well be Gaius until halfway through the cutscene I realized that the body style didn't match (we all know our Griffin chap is a Highlander while Gaius is a Hume).

The keener point of inspection:
It wasn't until I rewatched the cutscenes (so that I could scrutinize the dialogues for clues) that I realized that our Griffin was most likely Ilberd. But while chatting with Moose last night (before our respective Duty Finders popped) a keener point of possibility arose while we discussed... what if Ilberd was indeed the Griffin BUT was working for Gaius? Its fortuitous that Moose had already loosely suggested this on page 5 and I was glad to find that I was not the only one thinking along those lines.

Think about it... as much as Ilberd hated the empire, the Scions and Raubhan, he needed a LOT of funds, resources and arcane-like connections to get his "program" for revenge going. This was a guy on the run. How he linked up with Elidibus, secured followers and established a base of operations within a very swift amount of time points to the fact that he likely had a mentor that "showed him the ropes". And Gaius always had a prime talent for making skilled revenge-seekers gravitate to his side so that he could mold them into his fashion.

Or am I just wanting Gaius back so much... (I still stubbornly refuse to accept he's dead)... that I'm just grasping at obscene notions?

<Shrugs>

[Cilia]

I'm honestly not seeing a contradiction with the timeline that would set Ilberd up to be the Griffin. His funding takes a little more thought, but there's no contradiction with the time frame.

We first see the Griffin in the stinger of 3.1. Going by a very, very loose timeline, that's anywhere between 2 and 3 months after the ending of 2.55 and 3.1 at least. It was approximately 2 weeks to 2 months between the ending of 2.55 and 3.0, and 3.0 had to take place over the course of at least one tumultuous month. We dealt with Ilberd early on in the 3.0 story, meaning he was not in Lolorito's employ for 80% of it (and may well have not been in his employ for the entirety of 3.0, depending on when Lolorito kicked him to the curb). Add another month or so for the events of 3.2 and 3.3, and another month or two for the timeskip between Nidhogg's defeat and when we get to play again after the Ishgardian government reformation. So there's approximately 3.5 to 5 months between "Before the Fall" and "Soul Surrender;" plenty of time for Ilberd to get operations up and running as the Griffin.

The rest of the Masks don't look particularly well-equipped. The Griffin and his proxies do have some snazzy threads, but Ilberd was working for Lolorito - the wealthiest man in Eorzea - for some time. While certainly not loaded, he never seemed to be in want for coin (in fact Raubahn specifically called him out on betraying everyone for the Monetarists' coin), and with that getting some special clothes and rudimentary armaments for the Masks is far from implausible.

Both of the questions are pertinent if you're going to ask whether or not Gaius could be the Griffin. Time is not really a factor (2.0 end - 3.4 is a good length of time), but how the devil would a renegade Garlean legatus get the funds to supply the Masks in Eorzea of all places?

Gaius could be coaching Ilberd as the Griffin, but... I don't think that's plausible even. Aside from the whole "blown up in the Praetorium" thing, there would be too much of a clash in their personalities, and I can't think of a reason as to why Gaius would try to liberate Ala Mhigo. If I may be so blunt, the whole Gaius idea has felt like wishful thinking from the first...

[Hinoto-no-Ryuji]

[H]ow the devil would a renegade Garlean legatus get the funds to supply the Masks in Eorzea of all places?

Not that I disagree with you (I don't think it's especially likely to be Gaius), but Gaius has been shown to be a rather cunning fellow, and it's not like it would be hard for a guy who wore full body armour to go incognito without it - his face wouldn't exactly be well-known (and certainly less so than Ilberd's). All he'd have to do is hide his Third Eye, and his status as a Garlean legatus wouldn't be much of a factor at all.

[Anonymoose]

halfway through the cutscene I realized that the body style didn't match (we all know our Griffin chap is a Highlander while Gaius is a Hume).

You're right - Gaius is no Highlander, to be sure. Technically, though (like most Garleans), he has a modified Elezen skeleton. Even the two Nael deus Darnus models still have modified Elezen male bases; one just has a feminine head modded on.

But yes. One way or another, we're meant to think (or know) a very specific someone is under the True Griffin's robes.

If I may be so blunt, the whole Gaius idea has felt like wishful thinking from the first...

Well ... yeah. No denials from this guy, lol. I won't embrace or defend it as "my expectation". I just took some weird hints (in all likelihood red herrings, or hints I took wrong) and had some fun stirring the pot. That's all there is to it. (You know, unlessssss...)

The rest of the Masks don't look particularly well-equipped. The Griffin and his proxies do have some snazzy threads, but Ilberd was working for Lolorito - the wealthiest man in Eorzea - for some time. While certainly not loaded, he never seemed to be in want for coin (in fact Raubahn specifically called him out on betraying everyone for the Monetarists' coin), and with that getting some special clothes and rudimentary armaments for the Masks is far from implausible.

how the devil would a renegade Garlean legatus get the funds to supply the Masks in Eorzea of all places?

I feel like one point counters the other (assuming cutaway-mid-explosion means didn't-die-in-said-explosion). Baelsar spent decades in the Imperial court, at the side of the Emperor, while managing a legion of the Empire's military. Meanwhile, he also spent nigh twenty years as viceroy governing an entire Imperial province, and a decent chunk of that time he was in the Emperor's good graces (having slain nine of his would-be usurpers and all).

At least until 1562, whatever he needed, he got - down to the Imperial Armada's flagship. After he lost it, ehhh... But he was still governing a pretty massive territory. He doesn't strike you as the kind of guy to have reserve funds? Skimming a bit off the top for a crisis, maybe? Also, he still has a good chunk of tech to sell. He still has a good chunk of secrets to sell. And his men were loyal as they come; I'd bet that some of his network remains intact and/or could be rebuilt.

The guy managed to find enough money to fund a rogue legion's war ... for like five years. Would he really have trouble scrounging up enough gil for, as you say, some special clothes and rudimentary armaments?

I can't think of a reason as to why Gaius would try to liberate Ala Mhigo.

Abandon the mindset of a Final Fantasy XIV player or a plot analyst.

Be, for a moment, Gaius van Baelsar, <puffs chest> Legatus of the XIVth Imperial Legion. True son of Garlemald. (It'll be fun, maybe!)

cracks knuckles; prepares manifesto

You dedicate your life to an Emperor in whose cause and right to rule you believe in without question. After decades of success, in the twilight of his life, on a mission to to raise Garlemald's mighty standard over the last of the Three Great Continents, you fail. Not entirely your fault. How do you foresee a surprise ambush by the mythical progenitor of all dragonkind? Still, you fail. Spectacularly. The outcome of your mission is the exact scenario you set out to prevent; primals. False gods, corrosive to the very foundations of this world. Eorzea is corrupted to its core. Only through the stability and order of the Empire can this rot be excised and the realm returned from the brink.

However, unable to counter the unvanquishable demigods, undoing this failure is a futile effort for ten years. You even offer the Eorzeans amnesty; accept Garlean rule, take up arms against the beast tribes, and every life will be spared. But they will not accept the truth, will not realize what is at stake, will not bend.

You lose the Emperor's confidence; and who gains it? Legatus Nael van Darnus, upjumped upon his father's death - probably by his hand, at that - and proffering a depraved scheme to reduce Eorzea to ash and call it salvation. You've heard rumors of this plan ... the brainchild of House Darnus and Midas nan Garlond, so consumed by it that his prodigy son was left wanting for guidance that you were all too happy to provide. (That is, until the fruits of the Meteor Project destroyed a city and the use of his magitek against the Ala Mhigan insurrection drove the coward to defect.) And you are made to serve, made to bow, to this. For now, the humiliation must be borne; it is the Emperor's will.

As fate would have it, your every suspicion is validated. The lunatic deceives the Emperor - something is ...off... about this plan. Knowing His Radiance won't realize the truth before it's too late, you feed Darnus to the Eorzean Alliance (Honor and pleasure need not be mutually exclusive.) and leave their fate in their own hands. Should they be strong enough to survive, they will yet be conquered justly by those worthy to lead them. Garlemald's standard will raise in every corner of the realm, and its taint will be purged. Most will learn to accept what is in their best interest, the rest will perish with their false beliefs.

You return to Ala Mhigo and prepare your invasion - to strike while the iron is hot - before the realm can recover from the Calamity and before the tribes can reorganize, resupply, and resummon. But the Emperor falls ill. The heir apparent dies (murder?) and those in line for the throne (murderers?) tear at what His Radiance has built like vultures. You have no time. Desperation. And then a visit from man in black, offering power should you only use it. Perhaps you've heard of the Bringers of Chaos, perhaps not; but you can use this power now and fail to serve their ambitions later. For now, your goals are aligned.

With Cid gone, you've adopted more of the lost - Nero, Rhitahtyn, Livia - and when they saw what you could provide they were eager to prove their worth. Eorzea fails to organize; Castrums rise in every region before resistance is mounted. And in the end, who is it that comes to head off your momentum but the slayer of van Darnus (or whoever it is the meddling Sharlayans are backing these days). Just as you move to finally vanquish this worthy foe, you experience the epiphany. The true war is revealed. The power of the Crystal and the Darkness that would extinguish it. Your ambitions aren't even on this game board. You've been a pawn. Explosions.

[INSERT DEUS EX ALCES HERE]

What remains in possession of the defeated Black Wolf? Not even breath according to most. Where once there was honor - pride - purpose - there is naught. Do you, Gaius van Baelsar, Legatus of the XIVth Legion, true son of Garlemald, accept this defeat? Do you accept the state of your Empire? Do accept the sight of your homeland, for which you gave everything, for which you died, led to its ruin? The sight of this would-be Emperor, eagerly grasping for the power to enslave primals - to make use what aught be destroyed. To welcome what you sought to see the world rid of. Are - you - finished?

No. This will not be suffered. Honor. Pride. Purpose. Garlemald's true path. They can all be reclaimed.

But every journey starts with but a single step. With whom do you take it? With whom you have left to trust. In what direction does it go? Towards what you know. Towards what knows you. Do you consent to relinquish stewardship of the Ala Mhigo - which you led, which you gave order for two decades - whose children were raised up under your leadership and cast down in the fires of Cartenau despite your futile protest? This new viceroy - installed by this would-be Emperor - does not have their best interests at heart. It can be reclaimed.

How? For all the times you crushed them utterly, did the Ala Mhigan Resistance ever give up hope? Ever stop plotting? Ever cease to be a thorn in your side? But they lack discipline. They lack order. They lack passion. They lack the guidance of a man willing to do anything that his task demands. Luckily, such a man - such a loyal son of Ala Mhigo - is just as desperate as you. Another cast-down, cast-off, and night-forgotten enemy from the ceaseless crusade of the Warrior of Light. He wants only for guidance. With your sage council, he can forge the undying spirit of the Resistance into something more useful.

But they will need power. Ultima may be gone, yet through the Monetarists' former confidant you learn of something much like it buried deep beneath Cartenau. Nero will be reluctant to lay claim to it... at first.

And what to do about the man in white. He claims to be different than his black-robed brethren. Brethren. He cannot be trusted. But at arms length he can be used. While his own pawns fight and die and are cast aside, those who accept your guidance reap rewards and success the likes of which they had never dreamed. And what if your Griffin becomes too ambitious? The Warrior of Light will surely not be far behind, and with scores to settle, you hear. Feed him to those he betrayed. The man in white can deal with them them after.

An entire generation of Ala Mhigans have known the benefit of your order. The rest would see the Empire pay. Who among them do you have nothing to offer? Do you not have the power to unite them if only they embrace reason? You told your Empire of it's folly and it did not listen. It would repeat its mistakes. It would build upon them. Will Ala Mhigo be a part to it? This nation can again know pride ... know honor ... know purpose.

But this is just ... one ... step.

Gaius would have to go down, but he'd go down as the antagonist he was meant to be; standing tall on his own feet, carrying out his own plans, and doing what was best for the Empire-as-he-saw-it. Perhaps you share an enemy for a time. Perhaps he dies (again) before you can be brought into direct opposition (again).

Wrong? Probably. Wishful thinking? Undeniably. But inconsistent? Ehhh.

Can't blame a guy for channeling his boredom while he waits for 4.0. Ain't like that void thing is going anywhere fast. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯