Some Math for Folklore Tomes (long grind is looooooooooooooooooong)

[Jpec07]

Well, I'm not usually one to err in math, but I haven't touched statistics in over a decade. That's kind of shocking to realize (I'm an old fart don't judge me).

Anyway, I ran a simulation of 1,000 node attempts in Excel a few times, just to see from hard data, and you guys are right. Oof, let me go update that math again.

[StouterTaru]

Triple Impulsive will still yield you better results than the rotation you are using, and it what you should be using when you start on red scrips as well. It's basically:

Use a Single Mind and two Utmost Cautions, doesn't really matter where in the rotation.
Use 3 Impulsive and a Methodical. Use Discerning Eye before Methodical if none of your Impulsive proc'ed, otherwise use another Single Mind. If your first two Impulsives proc, replace the third with a Methodical (otherwise you get 528, 530 is a tier for red scrips)

[Silverbane]

An MMO with a long grind, who'd a thunk it?

That said, I've had all the Mining and Botany Folklore books for months now, and my wife has all of them, period. I think we got them done before Red Script even came out.

We'd gather blue script collectables between leveling our crafters and War/Magic classes. Cordials were cheaper back then.

[Sida]

You have a 70% chance the first doesn't proc, 70% the 2nd doesn't, for a 49% chance that neither procs and you only get 2.

That leaves 51% chance of getting 3+; 42% for 3 and 9% for 4.

That's 2.6 collects on average.

Which is exactly what I told him in the first post ^^. Propabilities should generally sum to 100%, if they don't something is wrong. For a serie of individual events that should happen in progression you multiply, you could say that the calculation for three items is 0.7*0.3 + 0.3*0.7, that is, either second d one procs or first one procs but it'd still sum up to 42%.

[Sida]

Triple Impulsive will still yield you better results than the rotation you are using, and it what you should be using when you start on red scrips as well. It's basically:

Use a Single Mind and two Utmost Cautions, doesn't really matter where in the rotation.
Use 3 Impulsive and a Methodical. Use Discerning Eye before Methodical if none of your Impulsive proc'ed, otherwise use another Single Mind. If your first two Impulsives proc, replace the third with a Methodical (otherwise you get 528, 530 is a tier for red scrips)

That is true for red scrips. It's the rotation. I said has 65% chance to get three items. However if none of the IAs proc, you only get two items. Its also too risky to use under 115 MA. Even on 115 MA there is 29,4% chance that you only get 476 from appraisals and need to pray for RNG for collecting them on over 480. Hence for blue scrips it's better to use the one that gives always 3 items.

What I used for red scrips on 112 MA was DE-IA-DE/SM-MA-DE-MA. It has 30% chance for three items, 70% for two. That rotation of course is inferior when getting higher perception.

For the counterfoils, DE-MA-DE-MA-UC-MA-UC-MA. That gives only one click but on lower perception is more reliable than hoping for three consecutive IA procs.

[StouterTaru]

Its also too risky to use under 115 MA. Even on 115 MA there is 29,4% chance that you only get 476 from appraisals and need to pray for RNG for collecting them on over 480. Hence for blue scrips it's better to use the one that gives always 3 items.

Under 113 MA and you will wind up with some of your items being worthless with triple Methodical, which is an issue the OP was having. Triple Impulsive will work down at 109 MA, his rotation works at 108 MA.

[Jpec07]

So I just did some math regarding the 3ImA+MA rotation, and it actually has ~5% better yield on BGS, to the point where I've actually switched over.

The rotation I was using had 2.6 (eTI/n) * 72 (BGS/eTI) = 187.2 BGS/n

However the rotation that was suggested not only has a higher chance at getting three collects, but also has a chance to have some of those collects give 79 BGS/eTI or even 86 BGS/eTI. I simulated all eight possible outcomes of SM+ImA - UC+ImA - UC+ImA - (DE/SM)+MA, and their probabilities, accounting for procs, and I arrived at an effective yield of 196.407 BGS/n at 565 perception (112 MA).

I'll have to edit the math in the first post this evening.

[PirateCat]

For the counterfoils, DE-MA-DE-MA-UC-MA-UC-MA. That gives only one click but on lower perception is more reliable than hoping for three consecutive IA procs.

Or if you're not in a hurry to get the counterfoils, triple Impulsive will occasionally luck out, proc DE multiple times, and get you 3 collects at high enough rarity to use for these. I've never needed to specifically go after counterfoils because of this, just save a few of the high rarity ones for this purpose as you gather for scrips.

Unless my math is off, two IA procs anywhere in the rotation will be enough for the threshold while still getting 3 collects as long as your MA gets 115. You can also convert one proc on the first or second IA by switching to MA after the proc and popping DE for the last one for two collects.

[StouterTaru]

Or if you're not in a hurry to get the counterfoils, triple Impulsive will occasionally luck out, proc DE multiple times, and get you 3 collects at high enough rarity to use for these. I've never needed to specifically go after counterfoils because of this, just save a few of the high rarity ones for this purpose as you gather for scrips.

Unless my math is off, two IA procs anywhere in the rotation will be enough for the threshold while still getting 3 collects as long as your MA gets 115. You can also convert one proc on the first or second IA by switching to MA after the proc and popping DE for the last one for two collects.

You can alter triple impulsive to get you enough for counterfoils every time once you hit 115 MA.

UC > IA > UC > IA > DE if no procs yet, otherwise SM > IA (MA if first two were procs) > DE if you've only have one so far, otherwise SM > MA

That will get you 1, 2, or 3 counterfoils, based on the number of IA procs you get.

[Sida]

Or if you're not in a hurry to get the counterfoils, triple Impulsive will occasionally luck out, proc DE multiple times, and get you 3 collects at high enough rarity to use for these. I've never needed to specifically go after counterfoils because of this, just save a few of the high rarity ones for this purpose as you gather for scrips.

Unless my math is off, two IA procs anywhere in the rotation will be enough for the threshold while still getting 3 collects as long as your MA gets 115. You can also convert one proc on the first or second IA by switching to MA after the proc and popping DE for the last one for two collects.

Yes, if you have 115. However that was suggested as succession to the other rotation I said for 112, meant as way to get counter foils when you are not yet geared enough to the 115.