Anyone good at math?

[Galactimus]

Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

P(x) = 0.02258945

23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

(I think ♪)


Edit:
7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
Etc. = 35

1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
Fail. = 1

[Medura]

Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

P(x) = 0.02258945

23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

(I think ♪)


Edit:
7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
Etc. = 35

1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
Fail. = 1

thanks for having this at the end, with what all the others had written, i felt like i had to say it :P Its almost 7 am, i should get to bed ...